If Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it's over.

[Paragon]

Well, that's the conventional wisdom, anyway.

Discuss.

[mot78]

1. There's a thing called South Carolina

The February 3rd primaries are Dean's to lose.

[Dagaz]

10. Yes, on to the South people

I think Clark will come on strong and I'll even go out on a limb and say that Sharpton will make noise.

[goobergunch]

18. Most Southern primaries aren't held until March 9

Only 3 (SC, VA, and TN) are held in February.

[Jack_Dawson]

2. What's over? The primaries of two tiny states?

Anyway...

:eyes:

[maxr4clark]

3. That particular conventional wisdom

isn't really relevant when there are as many contenders as there are this year.

[MidwestTransplant]

4. Sounds like unconventional wisdom to me

The only person it's over for if that happens is Gephardt.

[edzontar]

5. Might kill off Kerry too...

If he does very badly in NH.

[DebJ]

7. even when his net worth (with wife Heinz) is 840,000,000??

[goobergunch]

21. What states will Kerry win?

I really can't see any. :shrug:

[Josh]

36. He can't use that money for the campaign, only for 'issue ads' -

that's why he's had to mortgage his house for extra campaign cash. Thereasa Heinz's money is legally hers and not John Kerry's.

[bearfartinthewoods]

6. well first i'd like to discuss your statement that it's all over

and say this is just another re-enforcement of my theory that some people here are waaaay too into this whole concept of the primaries being some sort of team sport.

and then i'd day your sig lines says you are buying into that mindset bigtime.

[deminflorida]

8. So Goes Maine So Goes the Nation....

Haven't heard that phrase in about 50 years....

[goobergunch]

16. Maine Caucuses are February 8

:evilgrin:

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

9. I agree

No matter how hard anybody tries to spin their candidate, Iowa and New Hampshire in the Dean column will re-enforce his standing as the clear front runner and the momentum that will give him going into South Carolina, along with all the media exposure, will only swell his support.

On the other hand, Dean MUST win both Iowa and New Hampshire or Clark will become the new darling of the media.

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. Think again

and I like this CW better.

[Kathleen04]

12. Disagree..

If he completely sweeps February 3rd states, THEN it's over.

Otherwise, there's an opportunity for another strong candidate to emerge and have a shot at the nomination.

[Skinner]

13. Disagree.

Now, everyone everyone expects Dean to win NH and IA, so they're already looking to South Carolina.

If Dean wins NH, IA, *and* South Carolina, then I think it's probably all over.

But if Dean wins NH and IA, but doesn't win South Carolina, then the winner of South Carolina is annointed the "anti-Dean" candidate and it becomes a two-man race.

Then it's all about Super Tuesday.

[Paragon]

14. Wow - thanks for chiming in, big dawg.

;)

I remember the same buzz on South Carolina with McCain...but then the candidate with more money stepped in and took the state.

[goobergunch]

15. Don't forget the mid-February races

IMHO the Wisconsin and Michigan caucuses will play a fairly signficant role.

Otherwise, I'd probably agree, except for the other 3 February states...it's important to note that Arizona, New Mexico, Delaware, North Dakota, Missouri, and Oklahoma hold events on the same day.

[Democrats unite]

17. It's not over till the fat lady sings...

And IMO the presidential nominee for the Democrats, will not be a sure thing until the convention.

[goobergunch]

19. I disagree

And it would be very bad if true...imagine all of this infighting through July :scared:

However, if we do not have a nominee by March 10, I would be willing to predict that it will be decided at the convention. Not a good thought.

[Paragon]

23. The convention's in late July

Let's hope it's a "sure thing" before then. I'd like a little more than 3 months to attack Bush - which is just what Terry McAuliffe thought when he lobbied to hurry up the primary schedule.

[iowapeacechief]

28. Why wait to attack Bush?

The road to the convention need not be characterized by in-fighting. Let every primary be a step forward in strengthening our determination to unite behind our ultimate standard bearer. Anointing an early winner does nothing to assure the cause of regime change!

[AntiCoup2K4]

31. Well it hasn't happenned so far.....

What makes you think a united front is more likely in a long primary season? Especially given the bloody battle right now, without a single vote counted yet?

[xultar]

20. Whatever you say. n/t

[Paragon]

24. Thanks for kicking the thread. n/t

:D

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Paragon]

25. Thanks again. n/t

;)

[dolstein]

26. Not necessarily . . .

For instance, if Dean narrowly edges out Gephardt in Iowa and Clark finishes a strong second in New Hampshire, I think it's entirely possible that Clark would have the momentum heading into the February 3rd primaries.

[zulchzulu]

27. A funny thing called Super Tuesday

If you think the first two primaries will decide the deal, then you have a bit more to learn.

[leftist_rebel1569]

29. Not really

There are still a LOT more primary races left after those two. Maybe the top two candidates will be defined, but it won't be over until later...like, mid-february would be a good time to start thinking about who's gonna win

[goobergunch]

30. /me runs into the Lounge and reports that you posted in GD-2004

;) :evilgrin:

[tedoll78]

32. I mostly agree, and here's why:

If Dean wins Iowa, he gets a huge week of media attention between Iowa and New Hampshire. Note that Clark is not in the Iowa equation, and thus will suffer a bit in media coverage. Gephardt is knocked-out, and Dean (with his union backing) will get a bite (not a chunk) of Gephardt's supporters.

If Dean wins New Hampshire, he knocks-out Kerry. Again, he gets a bite of Kerry's supporters. Plus, he gets another week of media attention. He'd be the guy who came out of nowhere a year ago only to knock-out two big-name Democratic contenders.

The media attention and the victories of those two events are important in that Dean would get a poll bounce nationwide in state-by-state polls. It could be 5% and 15% in another, but there will indeed be a bounce.

This will come in very handy in South Carolina, where Dean is currently polling either in first or statistically deadlocked at the top. If he were to get a 10% boost, while Edwards and Clark divide the "Hey - he's a Southerner!" Vote, and while Lieberman helps divide the more conservative electorate, his chances would look really nice there. The longer there's divided opposition to Dean, the smoother his sail to a nomination would be.

And then there's another big issue hanging over all of this. Dean has been saying for months that his campaign is mobilizing a new segment of the voting population. What happens if turnout in Iowa goes up by thousands of people, and this is linked to a convincing Dean victory? The big question mark for Dean is this "new voter" factor. This could end-up being what propels him to victory.

Otherwise, he also has superior organization to any one of the other campaigns. That'll give him an edge also.

Either way it turns-out, I will be ecstatic for two reasons:
1) If Dean wins, great. If someone other than Dean wins, he has to be strong enough to topple Dean, which is saying something!
2) I really, really like both the doctor and the general. It was tough choosing between them. :)

[YellowDawgDemocrat]

34. Tedoll is right on the money.

Bingo.

[hellhathnofury]

33. That's not hte conventional wisdom at all. Feb 3 is, or so they say.

[PAMod]

35. If Dean wins the primaries but is denied the nomination, it IS over...

for the Democrats.

If it's not going to be Dean, I hope he is beaten fair & square by a strong campaign and not by some hocus pocus BS at the convention.

I agree with Paragon's topic line though. I can't imagine anyone stopping Dean if he wins IA & NH.

Momentum would be added to his already fantastic campaign.

[dolstein]

37. Excuse me, but how do you exact THAT to happen?

The primaries aren't beauty contests, like they were back in 1968. The lion's share of delegates are awarded through the primaries. And considering that Howard Dean has more support among super delegates than any other candidate, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Dean could be "denied" the nomination despite winning more delegates than any other candidate.

[PAMod]

38. I expect Dean to be the nominee.

I fear the "anybody but Dean" crowd, however, and expect them to try any tack they can think of to keep him off the ballot.

If Dean wins every primary, then of course he cannot be legally denied the nomination. But if he is successfully challenged in states that award delegates proportionally, coupled with a few losses in the primaries, they might be able to keep it going to the convention and a second ballot.

People have a pretty good sense of fairness, and a brokered convention would be a disaster for the Democrats if the leading candidate were denied the nod.

My paranoia is fed by the rabid posts on DU. It is very disturbing.

[goodhue]

39. no

Remember Clinton won neither. If he wins SC as well then maybe but don't think anything will be truly over until March and even then some candidates will likely hang around until Boston.

[mlawson]

40. No, it would not necessarily be over with.

I think history will easily bear me out on that one.

[Adjoran]

41. Wrong

Iowa and NH are big publicity states, but few delegates are at stake. Dean's problem now is the expectations game. His huge lead in NH is unlikely to hold up, given the propensity of NH voters to upset the apple cart and confound the polls and pundits. Any result significantly less than predicted becomes the story, along with major press for whoever did better than expected.

In 1992, Clinton didn't contest Iowa (Harkin was in the race as a favorite son) and finished a weak second in NH, but because of the whole Gennifer Flowers flap, was declared "The Comeback Kid" and had ALL the momentum - without winning anything.

In 1984, Mondale was cruising until shocked by Hart in NH. McCain upset Bush in 2000, Buchanan upset the other Bush in '92. These things were all surprises.

A Dean win in Iowa eliminates Gephardt, who is having money trouble and needs the bounce to keep going. Kerry has a chance to stay in by exceeding the now lowered expectations in IA & NH, but if he doesn't, he's history. Clark is in the best shape besides Dean, since anything he gets in NH is gravy - but he will have to win a couple on Feb 3rd.

Feb 3 is key for the field. Dean will be going on regardless, but can make it very tough for the opposition with a couple of wins. SC is anybody's race, and Dean is looking pretty good in AZ and NM, although Clark is, too. If Gephardt survives Iowa, he has his home state of MO, where only Dean is mounting a strong contest, and Oklahoma, where he and Clark are close, which could give him strong momentum even without SC.

If Dean wins all of the Feb 3 contests, it's pretty well over. The momentum and donations will be all his. If he doesn't wrap it up then, though, the field will be winnowed down to two or three, and the opposition will come together, probably behind Clark unless Gephardt or Kerry pull a big surprise early.

Michigan looks very good for Dean; they are allowing online voting for the first time, and he is well organized on the internet.

But OVER is a big word in primary politics.