Rasmussen Premium Tracking Numbers for Key Battleground states

[louis c]

Rasmussen Battleground Numbers for Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan show a little change from yesterday, and the results are mixed.

First, the bad news. Florida has gone from a 47% tie to a small Bush lead of 48%-46%. Michigan has taken a 4 point Kerry lead to just two, 47%-45%. These changes are from the tracking poll released on September 10th, and changes from yesterday's numbers.

Now, the good news. Pennsylvania has Kerry increasing his lead from 48%-46% to 50%-46% from yesterday. Also, a favorable trend is that both Bush and Kerry supporters are at 89% certain levels. This is a category that usually favors Bush. In addition, Bush has a 50%-49% favorable rating (+1) to Kerry's 54%-45% (+9) among Pennsylvania voters.

Next, the better news. Ohio holds a steady lead for Senator Kerry at 49%-46% for the third day in a row. Behind the numbers, the news is even more encouraging. The President's favorable rating in Ohio is exactly the same as Pennsylvania, 50%-49% (+1), while Kerry's is even better at 54%-44% (+10). Also, in a sign that Kerry's support is firming up in the Buckeye state, Kerry's certain voters actually out pace Bush's by a 91%-83% margin.

If we can hold Michigan and Pennsylvania, as it seems we can. If we can take either Ohio or Florida, and today Ohio seems quite winnable, we can take the whole thing in November.

These numbers are available to me on Rasmussen's Paid Premium Site which is updated daily, the analysis in my own.

louis c

[wryter2000]

1. Thanks so much

:yourock:

[speedoo]

2. That's very good news.

I am starting to believe that Ohio is the key. I don't see the coWard taking Pennsylvania or Michigan.

[TheDonkey]

4. yea, I think PA and Michigan are safe if we still pay attention to them

but CO, FL, OH still seem like they could tip over to Kerry easily. Missouri too.

[vickie]

3. Thank you so much Louis. This is terrific news.

[louis c]

7. You're welcome

I'll try to post his Premium Numbers as often as I can.

However, his Home Page is free. However, other than his daily National Numbers, the rest is about a week old.

The Premium numbers are up-to-date, so I will attempt to share them here.

His Home Page is


http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[blue neen]

5. Thanks for your posts, louis.

Those are good numbers. I think we still have a chance in FL, too.

[sonicx]

6. i think MI and PA are Kerry's and aren't that 'swingy'

not sure what's up with some of these polls that have it close.

[DemMother]

8. Thank you.

[WI_DEM]

9. Very encouraging even Florida

heck Florida is expected to go back and forth. Ohio, Pa, Mi are good.

[WI_DEM]

10. P.S. Did NC tighten any?

[louis c]

15. Rasmussen still has North Carolina as Battleground

but I don't.

North Carolina went from 55%-40% Bush to 56%-39%.

I think that the Swift Boat Bullshit issue has sunk us there. Bush's favorable to unfavorable rate is +29%.

The numbers in North Carolina now resemble Texas. I have given up on that state, and I think Kerry will too.

[jefferson_dem]

11. Thanks for the numbers! Ohio holds a steady lead for Senator Kerry...?

This is right?!?! Damn good news. I haven't seen the Man up in OH is a while.

[louis c]

20. You have to trust someone

or you just have to ignore every poll.

Early on, Scott Rasmussen sold me. He has tracking polls of three and seven days.

When a lead holds for three straight days, it demonstrates a trend. All the other polls are "stagnant" in that you get a snapshot of one point in time. Even if they are accurate for that specific time frame, in the modern day instant news cycle, it is obsolete as soon as you read it.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, polls 1,000 voters a day, every day, and rolls that average on three and seven day cycles. He showed the Bush bump of 5 points just after the RNC. He showed the Kerry bump after he chose Edwards, a 4 point bump that lasted a week.

In both cases, it settled in. Nationally, he has Bush ahead by about a point and a half, but behind in the battleground states. That's just what my instincts tell me, also.

[BillZBubb]

12. This is huge. If Kerry wins Ohio, Shrub's done!

Kerry's numbers from Ohio have been pretty disappointing recently. Maybe the worm has turned. If so, I take back all the bad things I've said about Ohioans!

[roseBudd]

13. I street canvass total strangers in Ohio everyday

It's really easy and it's fun.

[fujiyama]

14. Don't worry

about MI. It's holding steady with a Kerry lead of 3-5 points. Kerry will win it here somewhere in that margin.

PA has been worrying me a bit as of late. It seems to have tightened after the convention.

I think the Gallup and Zogby Interactive numbers on OH are a bit off. Bush may have a slight lead there (or it may be closer to being tied), but I think it's still a toss up. The same goes with FL...

I don't know what to say about MO. I think Bush has opened a lead there by about 5 points. I always felt Kerry winning MO was about as likely as Bush winning MI. In other words, I never thought it was very likely, though it was close last time...and close again in the senate race two years ago where Jean Carnahan lost.

[louis c]

16. If John Kerry hits the President

on the Economy, he can win Ohio easily.

Ohio's demographics favor Kerry. There is a relatively small veteran population, a larger than average Union membership, large African American population, and it's the state that has been hit the hardest by the poor Bush economy.

Kerry must stay on message. Jobs, wages, health care, and the overall economy, and Ohio will respond.

I bet Clinton is telling him just that.

[MissouriTeacher]

17. PA is the only one we need.

A lot of focus is being put on PA, OH, and FL. Bush absolutely needs 2 out of 3 to win, but Kerry could still get by with just one of those states.

[Guaranteed]

18. I do NOT get these OHIO numbers.

What the hell? They are all over the place!

[sonicx]

24. the answer

ignore gallup. they have a crap 'likely voter' model that said 90% of bush supporters are likely voters while 80% of kerry's supporters were.

[Guaranteed]

28. Doesn't Zogby show that we're way behind in Ohio, too? nt

[tritsofme]

29. Zogby Interactive polls showed that

I don't give those polls much credibility.

They are internet polls which are unscientific and IMHO unreliable.

[oasis]

26. The Rovebot media has focused on Ohio as the Holy Grail of the election.

Bad economic news has plagued the state since Chimpy began his reign. Bush should be toast in the state.

Bush Strategist must believe that if they can give the impression that Ohio voters have "other concerns" which outweigh their economic slump, other states will take notice and follow.

I can find no other reason for the polls to have gone so haywire.

[jerryster]

19. Today show poll showed VERY bad news

I'd like to be encouraged by your numbers. However, did you see the Today show poll this AM? It showed Kerry behind in Ohio and Missouri by 12 or 14 points. (I forget which state is which). I was bummed the rest of the day. Anyone else see it?

[louis c]

21. When was the poll taken?

not when they told you, but when they took it.

Rasmussen is always the poll taken yesterday, and the two preceding days. No lag time and no rush to beat a deadline. It's the same criteria every day.

This is how internal polling is done by the campaigns, not bullshit snapshot rush jobs.

[jerryster]

23. Thanks

I admit to never hearing of Rasmussen before. I don't know when the Today show poll was done. How reliable has Rasmussen been in the past? Also, whenever I hear a campaign say, "our internal polls...", I just cringe. Always sounds like like bullshit to me.

[fujiyama]

25. I think

you're talking about the Gallup numbers.

They had Bush up by 9 points in OH and 14 in MO.

My own guess is that Bush has opened a slight lead in both states, but I think Kerry has a better shot in OH than MO.

As for Rasmussen, he was far off in '00. Apparently he's made some changes in his methadology.

[nolajazz]

27. I saw it. That was a Gallup poll coming out a few days ago and

has been discused here in a few threads. That NBC made a big deal on it (as well as USA Today which had a story on A1 yesterday or Wednesday) is just a part of the media's recent efforts to create impression that Kerry is in big trouble. Didn't Bush win Ohio (and Missouri?) in 2000? Even if he wins them again this time, it should not be that big story. On the other hand, it will be a big story if he loses,

[The Ref]

32. Screw the Today show

We know the NBC poll is dreadful.

[I_like_chicken]

22. while these poll numbers look good

and are better than the ones reported by coporate news, i dont think we can make too much out of them. They are all within the margin of error, which I think means Bush and Kerry are in a statisical tie. I think the election in these states will depend on voter turnout, which means we need people in these states to get out the vote, and make sure Republicans aren't doing anything to surpress democrats from getting out to vote.

[59millionmorons]

30. Stop worrying about PA

I am telling you Bush has no chance here.

[The Ref]

31. Yippee!

We're taking Ohio! I'd rather take Ohio than Florida any day. It's got fewer EVs, but Bush is F***ed if he loses either.