Kerry 46%/Bush 44% (RV-9/12)-47%/47% among likely voters-IBD

[gasperc]

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Sept. 7-12, 2004. N=899 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3.5); 674 likely voters.

.

"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated

.

GeorgeW. Bush John Kerry Not Sure .

Among likely voters:

9/7-12/04 47 47 6
.

Among registered voters:

9/7-12/04 44 46 10
8/17-23/04 44 44 12
8/2-5/04 43 49 9
7/19-24/04 43 46 12
7/12-17/04 41 44 15
7/6-10/04 44 49 7
6/14-19/04 44 44 13
6/8-13/04 44 43 14
6/1-6/04 45 44 12
5/12-18/04 42 43 16
3/8-11/04 46 43 12

[malatesta1137]

1. great news

still close enough for The Bush Crime Family to steal it.

[ClintonTyree]

2. I think we'll see the polls........................

starting to come back in line with reality from now on. Bush had his bounce and from now until November he has nothing else to "bounce" off of. Well, except for the October surprise, whatever that may be.

[The Backlash Cometh]

3. I hear that Christian Science Monitor

is one of the most unbiased news sources around.

Thanks for posting good news.

[Beetwasher]

7. Yes, They Are

Almost always terrific, objective reporting from a paper w/ a name that would make you think otherwise! Historically, their polls have also been pretty accurate as well.

[npincus]

4. can you post the link, please?

thanks

[flpoljunkie]

6. More. JK leads Independents 48%-38%; ahead 51-39% in battleground states!

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=9/13

A new IBD/TIPP poll put President Bush and Sen. John Kerry in a dead heat, suggesting Bush's post-convention bounce is quickly disappearing.

<>The poll also has good news for Kerry. Among independents, Kerry leads Bush by 10 points, 48%-38%. His lead is 12 points — 51%-39% — in battleground states.

Kerry also dominates among urban dwellers (60% vs. 31%), while Bush leads in the suburbs (54% vs. 40%) and rural areas (57% vs. 36%).

Among likely voters who are still feeling the sting of lost jobs or impending job losses, Kerry has a 2-to-1 edge (61% vs. 32%). Investors back Bush 50%-40%, but noninvestors favor Kerry by 15 points.

[Lefty Pragmatist]

5. There were only two big bounce polls,

and they were both from the same source. Time 9/2 had Bush +12 and Time 9/9 had Bush +10. All the other polls have it a tight race, with Bush slightly ahead, whereas previously it was a tight race with Kerry slightly ahead: http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Far more importantly, the EV projections, after a slight sway to Bush, have now come back into line. On 9/12, Election Projection has Bush +32 (http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html), Rasmussen has Bush +38 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm) and on 9/13 Electoral Vote has Kerry +36 (http://www.electoral-vote.com).

All the EV projections show, in effect, a dead heat.

[Ravenseye]

8. Likely Voters....BS

The whole likely voter thing pisses me off. Why? Because I'm not considered a likely voter.

I didn't vote in the last mid-term elections. I felt bad about it, but at the time we lived in Massachusettes and to me it felt like...well my vote isn't going to tip it one way or another. If I had fully realized that Romney would win up there I wouldn't have.

Anyway now we've moved back home to PA. I wasn't registered to vote until last week. Before that point I was an unregistered unlikely voter, but I'll tell you this...Try and stop me from voting.

So to me the whole likely voter thing is complete hogwash. Sure there are some that aren't actually likely, but I'd like to see some other reasoning besides voting in every election etc etc.

[robbedvoter]

9. My vote is worthless - I am in NY - 1000 NY votes = one vote in Idaho

or Montana (give or take a few). Also, people didn't bother filling the census in 2000, so we lost 2 more electoral votes.