Bush 291 - Kerry 238.... WTF!!!??

[Enrico]

This is not looking up... just yesterday Kerry was up by like 75 points.... What is GOING ON!!!!! IS AMERICA FUCKING RETARDED?!!!!


http://www.electoral-vote.com

[Jack_Dawson]

1. In a word, Yes.

Not the smartest country...

[lancdem]

2. Kerry was not up 75 points yesterday

What happened was, Bush has a 1-point lead in Florida, so that's a 54-point swing right there. He also has just a 1-point lead in PA.

[rockymountaindem]

11. Yeah, that's not a great site.

Evidently Bush has gained 1 point in a poll in Florida, so it's not tied anymore, and the site gives the electoral votes to Bush. 1 point is hardly meaningful, neither statistically or in the long-term.

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin both have new polls as well, and I'm not sure how well they were conducted. The last Zogby poll gave Kerry a 2 point lead in Wisconsin, but now they have a new poll that says something else. I'll bet Kerry is leading in Penn. and Wisconsin, but not in Colorado. Florida is still pretty much tied, any way you look at it.

[Moonbeam_Starlight]

3. The electoral vote site relies on state polls

different people get polled each time. So of course the results are going to come out differently.

Yet another reason polls don't mean dick.

The only poll that counts is the one on November 2.

Don't sweat it. Get out and register some voters or volunteer for your county's Democratic party.

[Machiavelli05]

13. not really..

Youre not really understanding the science of polling...

The major polling agencies poll with a methodology that should not matter if they poll different people - they should get the same result. If the same poll gets different results that is a legitimate sign of a shifting opinion - 2 different polls getting consistantly different results can be a sign that one poll is asking strangely worded questions, has a high sampling error, etc etc.
These 1 pt favors of Bush mean NOTHING. The margin of error is surely 3.1-4.5% which means the margin could be as much as 3.5 points in FAVOR of Kerry. These are nothing to worry about... the numbers are all moving inside the margin of error.

[trogdor]

24. The bad part is...

...even one percent leads get swung. I would have left them blank.

[Claire Beth]

4. The polls are going to go back and forth....

so don't worry too much until the 2nd week in October. That's when I will worry if things don't start to lean more heavily towards Kerry. The undecides will start making their minds up around that time. Until then, don't put too much faith in these polls.

[dennis4868]

5. Bill Maher.....

said last night that the repubs are counting on an uninformed public and as long as the public is uninformed they will win because they have the image thing down pat....You have to get a license to drive a car but not to vote so this is what happends when the public is uninformed....plus, Bush and his thugs are good at muddying the waters and any negative story about Bush is confusing anf people do not know what to make of it.

[Claire Beth]

10. Bill Maher is correct....

I would feel better if the Kerry campaign took some advice from him, too. The "SEVEN MINUTE" lapse that Bush took on 9/11 WOULD be a BIG PROBLEM for Chimpy if the Kerry campaign would've used it.

[Clinton Crusader]

16. HOW true!!!!!

A commercial the same as one of the flash movies (I think it's at takebackthemedia) showing a split screen of the burning WTC, with people hanging out the windows, an idiotic dolt on the other side reading My Pet Goat and a clock on the bottom. You dont need any commentary! It says it all.

The Dems and the Kerry campaign have GOT to start getting down on their level. SOMEHOW beyond any reason he's painting himself as a flippin HERO for 9/11. And it's not being challenged.

WHY?????????? Cause he stood on a pile of debris and dead bodies saying we're gonna get those folks???

Im beginning to wonder IF Carville and Begala have anything to do with this campaign, because I see no evidence of it.
:kick:

[ET Awful]

6. You're seeing the results of two swing states

giving a 1% advantage to Bush, that's all.

The only difference between yesterday and today is two polls in swing states (FL and PA) giving a 1% (well within the MOE) advantage to Bush.

No big deal.

[truthspeaker]

7. Why even read these predictions? They're BULLSHIT.

Aside, from the questionable accuracy of even honest opinion polls, these predictions are put out by the corporate media. At best, they have a vested interest in a close race because more people will watch their political shows. But most of them are motivated to help Bush win, because it will mean raised ownership caps and other regulatory relief and taxpayer giveaways.

[Redneck Socialist]

8. Based only on most recent polls

It is a pretty good site, but the electoral vote count will swing widely from day to day as it is based only on the most recent poll for each state. Also if the poll has one candidate up by even just one point (within the margin of error for any poll) that state, even though essentially tied goes into the column of that candidate.

Check back tomorrow. It will be different, perhaps wildly so.

[coloradodem2005]

9. Yes. America is retarded.

Dumbed down music, dumbed down tv programming and dumbed down leaders. Perfect for Republicans.

[dennis4868]

12. According to the site....

Barely Bush electoral votes is 88....that is alot and that includes Pennsylvania which I think Kerry will win in November....he has too or else.....

[DougieZero]

14. Bizarre

The Iraq situation isn't going well and the American public isn't extremely right wing... I don't get it...

[dennis4868]

18. RIGHT.....

but have you notices that the media has put Iraq on the back burner....it no longer leads the news like it justa few months ago....i bet you most peole think things in Iraq are going well now....you are right that most peolle are not right wing but most people are unimformed and believe what they see and hear on TV....Rove is good at giving Bush a great image and the media loves it and plays along with it....disgusting!

[Machiavelli05]

15. Lets not forget...

That the Ohio poll cited there showing Bush up 20pts was from Strategic Vision, who's management used to work for Dole's campaign.

[Teaser]

17. How many times will this have to be explained today?

A bunch of polls from republican firm Strategic Vision and a small 1 pt shift in Rasmussen flipped a couple states.

Folks, you really, really need to stop panicking over what are basically statistical fluctuations. What these numbers show us is that the election is basically tied as of right now. So random fluctuations in polling samples can flip things wildly one direction or the other.

If people are going to keep getting flustered by these flips back and forth then I'd suggest you get another hobby than politics. Stamp collecting. Tae Bo.

Politics isn't for the weak of heart. It requires the ability to accept fluctuations in polls without heart attacks.

[Working Class Hero]

19. How credible is this web site?

Has anyone read the "News from the Votemaster" below the map? Talk about blatant right wing bias! Check out these two lines...

"Good news for George Bush, Ralph Nader, you, and me but no good news for John Kerry today."

"In the old days, when Mayor Daley stole elections for the Democrats, at least he did it by getting dead people to vote in the dark of night."

:puke:

[Liberal Gramma]

20. Not true

The votemaster has come out of his closet as a Dem on more than one occasion.

[lancdem]

21. He's actually a Kerry supporter

You need to read his comments in their entirety. He says the GOP is more brazen in Florida with its Nader move than Richard Daley ever was.

[Working Class Hero]

25. I can see where that is true

but that first comment about the "good news for you and me" still doesn't sit well with me.



:grr:

[Mick Knox]

22. Just ignore it - we are WINNING!!!!! n/t

[bobbyboucher]

23. Faux panic? What's up with that?

Are you serious?

[yellowcanine]

26. Get a grip - All it takes is a couple of states to "flip" and the numbers

change drastically. States like PA and FL are close and probably will stay close right up to Nov. 2. If you freak out every time this happens you are going to be a nervous wreck by election day. Remember, this guy bases his map on the most recent poll taken in a particular state - regardless of whether it is a "good" poll or not. All polls aren't created equal and even if they were there would still be some back and forth when the real numbers are within a 5-10 point gap.

[Wingding]

27. That is jsut the begining

Kerry will only carry Mass. if someone does not put a stop to the DNC.

[F.Gordon]

28. bush*: 274 (solid 200) and Kerry 264 (solid 221)

Pick a poll....any poll....

http://www.presidentelect.org/e2004.html

[SSFFMMM]

29. I'd say so!

[asianjoanne]

30. Everytime I see a poll, I always ask myself...

These so-called "polls" are based on what amount of people and what party do they belong to? Because obviously, if these polls are just calling house-to-house and these houses just happen to be Republican houses, of course it's going to show that most of America is RED. I don't trust polls. The only thing I will trust...IF it isn't corrupt as it was when GORE WON, but Bush bought Fox News and whatnot to spread false results, then I might...MIGHT trust the poll held ON NOVEMBER 2nd. All this stuff before-hand is irrelevant to me. Polls are a crock. And it's hard to even trust the actual election polls on election day! I say DOWN WITH POLLS! lol

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Better question How is VA barely Bush and WV is weak Bush?

I don't think this site is all that accurate. And there's not a chance in hell that Ohio is strong Bush either. Even the mainstream media isn't saying that.

[mvd]

32. The people above have made good points about this map

I wish the webmaster would just cut out the Strategic Vision polls. Too many times, their polls say things none of the others do. I think there's good evidence of push-polling.