It's 9/15. Do you know where your Bush Bounce is?

[featherman]

This is an arbitrary date I selected to start watching the polls winnow out the Bush Bounce. My benchmark for several months has been if Kerry is within three around this time (polls emerging between today and Sunday), he's in pretty good shape for the stretch run. Being very careful of bizarre sampling techniques like TIME, just take an average of any 5 nationals as they come out(Zogby, Rasmussen, Gallop, IBD, Guardian, LA Times, Newsweek, whatever). If Kerry is trailing by less than, say, 48-45 (2 Nader/other and 5 Undecided), I'll feel pretty comfortable. Bear in mind that many state polls are small sample and may lag in reflecting national movement. Give them another week of two.

Unseating an incumbent is a tough job. Just keep it close, keep it close, win at the end.