Positive Outlook: Kerry Has Four Voting Groups That Gore 2000 Did Not Have

[David Zephyr]

For the life of me, I don't think these current polls are reflective of some very significant movement in four key voting groups:

1.) Young and new voters: Young people are registering like crazy and we know that proportionately we will be seeing them voting for John Kerry. Because these are new voters, they have not been "phone polled" and so keep this in mind. This matters in a tight race.

2.) Gay Republicans (I know, I know!): The Log Cabin Club and gay and lesbian Republicans will not be voting for George W. Bush this time around. And while the great, great majority of the gay community did vote for Al Gore, this movement is significant because it represents a net loss of votes for Bush this time. Two gay guys in my neighborhood who have driven me nuts for the last two decades actually have a Kerry/Edwards bumper sticker on their car. I have not called to gloat. This change is real and this matters in a tight race.

3.) Arab and Muslim Americans: In 2000, George Bush took the lion's share of this voting block. Ask anyone, especially in Michigan, in this group and they are voting for John Kerry. Again, a significant bleed from Bush to Kerry. Again, this matters in a tight race.

4.) Veterans and Soldiers: In 2000, Bush walked away with the voting group, but Soldier/Senator John Kerry has eaten into this demographic and every vote that Bush loses is one he has to make up somewhere else. In the tight races in battleground states, this will make a big difference.

This does not count the unemployed who voted for Bush in 2000 and who are staring at unpaid bills, losing their homes and their families breaking up. Don't expect these people to be all jolly for Bush come November.

So, there are four significant voting groups where movement toward Kerry is undeniable.

That's my two cents for a positive outlook today.

[olddem43]

1. Don't forget the Cuban-Americans -

This is a huge factor in Florida. Many who supported Bush in 2000 will vote Kerry.

[David Zephyr]

3. You Are Sooooo Right. Thank You!

In fact in the Los Angeles Times there was an article on this very subject. Again, movement from Bush to Kerry. This is a good thing.

Thanks. That's Five Voting Groups where Kerry has made serious gains.

:)

[JohnKleeb]

2. he sure does

Gore's margin of victory among young voters was the slimest in years, I dont know how anyone from my generation could like or relate to that motherfucker in the white house but Gore had a poor margin among those voters, I expect Kerry to carry them better, and I also think Kerry will do better than Gore did among Catholic voters, just a thought.

[David Zephyr]

6. Catholic Voters! You've Named Still Another One!

Of course, JohnKleeb! That's a 5th Voting Group where Kerry will do better than Gore did in 2000 at Bush's expense.

Thanks for ringing in with that, JK! :)

[mconvente]

4. Good thinking

It's obvious about the young voters, but you make some good points with other groups of voters. I think the second biggest group that will help us will be the Muslim voters, but for the most part they are in Dem states anyways (IE - Michigan, NY, Illinois, etc.) so they won't help too much. But I guess every vote counts.

[blm]

5. Add to that a few % points from the Cuban-American vote

and moderate Republicans like Chafee and Lee Iacocca types. Especially those who travel consistently overseas.

[David Zephyr]

19. BLM! You Are Right About Chafee & Iococca.

And small business owners who are slowly catching on to the wickedness of the Chamber of Commerce and how it is a minion for conglomerates that eat up and destroy small businesses. :) :)

[Cozmosis]

7. The disturbing thing

Is the number of Bush voters I've seen in my college classes. Of course, I live in solid blue Maryland, so I don't care too much. So much disillusion for what I like the call the Toby Keith contingent.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

8. I've seen too many young Rethugs too.

:puke:

[Thrill]

9. Problem is

He has a bunch of stupid Dems voting for the Chimpy. Because they have allowed themselves to be scared.

[David Zephyr]

10. I Don't Think So.

This is a sitting President with over 50% of the people who don't approve of the job he is doing and with nearly 60% of the nation thinking we are on the wrong track.

The electorate is pregnant with a John Kerry victory. We're just having some birthing pains.

[Bryan]

12. True, but

...I'd be interested to know how many of those, ah, "suggestible" Dems also crossed over for Bush in 2000, because we were in an era of prosperity and it really didn't matter who was President. If it were provably the same set, we could stop worrying about it.

[LittleClarkie]

11. Helping out a confused gay undecided

Do we have an explanation for why Kerry said he would vote for the same-sex marriage ban?

I told him that it's because he's for civil unions, as long as they are not performed in church. I told him it was the Catholic in Kerry.

[David Zephyr]

14. Kerry Will Not Support A National Constitutional Amendment

Actually, Bush is alone on this issue even from his Vice President.

And share with your gay friend John Kerry's voting record in the U.S. Senate regarding gay and lesbian issues.:)

Here still is movement for Kerry. Thanks.

[Bryan]

15. Also, mention Kerry's excellent GLBT Senate record

Voting against DOMA, authoring hate crimes legislation, etc. This article is representative:

http://www.planetout.com/news/election/article.html?2004/05/14/2

"Never before have we had a presidential candidate with as good a record on GLBT issues," said David Tseng, executive director of PFLAG, who attended the meeting with approximately two dozen other leaders.

Elizabeth Birch, former director of the Human Rights Campaign, stressed a pragmatic take on Kerry's marriage views. Calling the imminent same-sex marriage situation in Massachusetts "no less amazing than the Boston Tea Party," she stressed that a candidate who supports same-sex marriage could not win the presidential campaign at this time.

"This country is not there," she said.

[jpgray]

18. He said he would support the states deciding

He did support a Massachusetts amendment that provided for civil unions while unfortunately banning gay marriage, because that goes with his position. Personally, he's for civil unions and against marriage, but he wants the states to decide. He is categorically against a national ban, and he voted against DOMA, etc.

[ScreamingMeemie]

13. And let us not forget...a stronger Union backing than in 2000.

In 2000, my brother in law was told to vote for Bush. Not so this time around. :hi:

[David Zephyr]

17. Mrs.Grumpy, There's No Doubt That Union Support Is Strong This Time.

And yesterday here in Los Angeles I saw my first Teamsters / Kerry bumper sticker on a car on the I-10 Freeway! :)

[LTRS]

16. According to 2000 exit polling....

25% of gays/lesbians voted for Bush in 2000. That translates into 1 million votes for Bush that will now be against Bush.

[David Zephyr]

20. A Potent Well of Kerry Supporters...

and at the very least, a lot of former Bush voters who won't go to the polls for him this time. :)