Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 completely shifted within 1 month

[Markus.CNNFan.com]

1 month ago: Kerry 307 Bush 231
now: Kerry 207 Bush 331

http://electoral-vote.com/
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I know that in many states it's a dead heat and that in many states Bush gained a little bit so he is now far ahead in this Electoral Vote system.

Another point is the PEW study:

Kerry Support Rebounds, Race Again Even

The CBS and CNN poll which both see Bush ahead are like the "old" PEW study.
But a new PEW study has came and says the race is even.

CNN.com though says that the latest PEW poll and the CNN poll were conducted within the same time, which doesn't fit quite.

So there are 3 possibilities.

#1: PEW has the latest, is right and CNN's is older
#2: Pew and CNN both have a +- 3.5 sampling error which mean they would meet themselves in the middle = race even.
#3: Pew is wrong, we don't see any change in electoral-vote.com

What possibility do you think is to most likely one?
Or is it a combination?

[elperromagico]

1. It shows how much things can change in a month.

And the election is over a month away. So keep the faith. :D

[kayell]

2. Believe it or not, I see hope in that map

any time SC is shown as only "weak" for a repuke, they need to be deeply, deeply nervous.

I suspect that signals more trouble for the BFEE than is shown by the rest of the map.

[Toucano]

3. That's got to be a mistake!

Could they have reversed NC and SC?

If it's right and SC is "Weak Bush" then hell must be freezing over.

They've been told John Kerry is a New Englander, haven't they? LOL! ;)

[kayell]

9. It actually is consistent with what I'm hearing from people in my RW

corner of SC. (Must remember that not all of SC is RW - the larger cities, and the mostly black counties in lower parts of the state vote dem) I think the NC strongly Bush is probably just wrong.

I suspect it has to do with 19 SCers dead in Iraq. Disproportionate by population to larger states, because low income drives many into the military. Also there is much dissatisfaction due to continueing lack of employment, major outsourcing effects here, many, many plant closings.

There was a lot of muttering about the $87 billion.

Perhaps people can learn to vote in their own self-interest.
--------------------------------------------

They do think that Kerry talks funny, but Edwards is a native son, born in Seneca, South Carolina.

[Toucano]

13. That's great!

Those are excellent points that I wasn't aware of.

I hope Sharpton will make a few stops between now and November to get out the vote.

[jpgray]

4. Note that CNN's sample is predominately Republican

At least as compared to the 2000 election. I believe 2000 was 40 to 38 Dem/Repub, whereas their sample is 32-36 Dem/Repub--so I wouldn't count on the Gallup to be accurate. Voter turnout is not going to be comparable to 2000, since this election is eminently more important.

[shockingelk]

18. It's the way they define "likely voters

It makes them end up with more republicans." For instance, common qualifiers are strength of support for candidate, how closely they're following the election ... they end up with more Republicans in "likely voters", but Kerry voters who disqualify themselves from "likely voters" will still show up to vote.

I explain in some amount of detail here

[Cats Against Frist]

5. EV dot com is sensationalist

They don't really have "toss-up states," and while they claim that anything within 5 pts. is a tie, they still dole the tied states out to challengers. Hit "Battleground States" on the main page and consider the last columns all "toss ups."

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[blondeatlast]

8. Check out the site, link is in his/her profile.

Unbelievable. My jaw hit the table, I'm telling you.

I warned CNNFan in the first post I saw from he/she that he/she better have a thick skin.

[LibertyorDeath]

11. Thanx this is unreal

Hey Markus we have almost weekly anti -cnn & boycott cnn days around here.

So what gives are you looking to get flamed
Is this Leslie (wolf) blitzer
With only a few exceptions CNN are major media whores for bush*
I would change your Freeptarded user name asap FYI.

[Name removed]

15. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mourningdove92]

7. Which only shows that it could easily shift back again within

a month.

No big deal. Kerry wins. Bush goes.

[OilemFirchen]

10. Oh c'mon.

Use a little common sense ferchrissakes...

New York

Y'see?

Wanna see it again?

New Jersey

SurveyUSA: Computerized Response Audience Polling



Edited to fix links.

[MODemocrat]

12. That's pure garbage

I don't rely on anything from CNN; Democrats.com tells the real story about these new bogus polls. Go there. :thumbsdown:

[cheshire]

14. During that time for one day Kerry was ahead. It was just one week ago.

[Zynx]

16. State polls lag national moves by about a week.

That's just something I've noticed.

[SidDithers]

17. buh bye...

Sid

[shockingelk]

19. Here's a graph for anyone who is interested

http://fearofclowns.com/text/net_difference_poll_results/

Looks to me like the curve towards Bush has reached bottom and Kerry is set to make it go up up and away.

Think about it - some of those polls show a 19 point swing in a month.

That means:

a. The apparent swing is just people who haven't made up their mind and are just saying "Bush" or "Kerry", or
b. It's swingable back up to solidly in Kerry territory, or
c. both