Bush is probably 7 or 8 points up right now

[Proud2BAmurkin]

It's left over convention bounce and last week's distractions from Iraq.

Kerry had a good week and Iraq is a disaster and finally got some extensive coverage this week. Those factors will start showing up in the polls in a few days.

[vickie]

1. I think it's closer to 3 or 4 points

[JohnnyCougar]

2. I agree

this week seemed pretty bad for *. I expect a slight Kerry lead by the end of next week.

[partygirl]

3. It is neck and neck.

[Kierkegaard]

4. There is no way to know where we are exactly.

Polls are NOT a reliable indicator of true voter turn out.

Absorb and repeat.

[David Dunham]

5. Why we need to get back to real issues and abandon AWOL stuff

A lot of media savvy Democrats in New York are telling me that the DNC's current attacks on Bush's National Guard record -- as well as the press' focus on it -- are in fact hurting the Kerry-Edwards campaign. They believe that the focus on the National Guard issue is not likely to gain us votes -- because whatever Bush did or did not do 30 years ago is irrelevant to virtually all voters today. For the vast majority of voters, the crucial issue in this election is what Bush has done during the last 4 years as president. Talking about the National Guard issue is only diverting voters' attention from Bush's numerous failures in office.

More importantly, talking about the National Guard issue is preventing Senator Kerry's substantive message from getting out to voters. I know that the DNC's idea is to have Senator Kerry talking about the substantive issues while the DNC goes after Bush on the National Guard issue. Unfortunately, however, the DNC's and the press' focus on the National Guard issue are overshadowing Senator Kerry's chances to get his message to the voters. I recognize that the DNC has been addressing other issues, but paying attention to the National Guard issue in itself diverts voters' attention from the substantive issues on which we can still win this election.

It would be much more effective if the DNC, as soon as possible, would begin focusing solely on the crucial issue of Bush's numerous failures in office over the past 4 years -- on the economy, on tax cuts heavily favoring the rich, on Iraq, and so forth. Ads could also be run attacking Bush's proposals for a second term, such as his plan to partially privatize Social Security.

[sonicx]

7. is there any reason why you won't

make a new topic about this rather than saying it in multiple posts? thanks :)

[candy331]

8. Well if the AWOL is not hurting Bush then why did the Swift boat

hurt Kerry? Something is not selling quiet right about that, I suggest it is hurting Bush and the reason why more TANG records out today on a Friday at that. Must be trying to get ahead of a story playing offense to keep the defense to a minimum because Defense will hurt more.

[David Dunham]

10. People don't know Kerry, so his past matters. They know Bush after 4 years

What Bush did many years ago has little relevance to voters today. It's his record as president that matters to most voters.

[mazzarro]

16. I think that is hogwash!

Kerry has been pounded for Vietnam and it took a toll on Kerry's poll numbers. Wimpy Democrats are the bane of us all. They tend to think that all the average voter needs to make judgement is the fact. But reThugs have proven time and again that underhanded attacks and lies and divisive issues wins for them and they are not going to stop so long as the Democrats keep wishing for a fair fight and enlightened voting public. Democrats must develop the habit of fighting out with the reThugs whether in the gutter or not. Kerry needs to ramp it up even further - IMO.

[juajen]

6. Bullshit!!

N/T

[Cronus Protagonist]

9. Ja! Complete, total utter crap.

I'm with you on that one.

You might be a Republican if...
http://cronus.com/quiz

Commentary by a Republican...
http://cronus.com/republican

The REAL Republican Platform...
http://cronus.com/platform

Bush's Illustrated Resume
http://cronus.com/bushresume

Isn't That Strange?
http://cronus.com/oil

:)

[partygirl]

15. I agree.

complete and total bullshit. The AWOL story is going to pay us big dividends. But what I would really like to see is a cocaine snorting story! Look how much damage was done with one simple DUI last election! We need to keep hitting him---there will be something that will stick and bring him down.

[sonicx]

11. no, i think its tied. look at the poll internals...

Kerry and bush are pretty close with independents (Kerry leads in some cases). He's not down 6.

[kentuck]

12. 7 or 8 million votes more than John Kerry ??

I don't know about that.

[saracat]

13. Why are we wasting time on this? Who the cheney cares?

Forgedaboutit. We need to get out and win! Stop with the idle speculation.We need volunteers not chattering hyenas!

[DaveinMD]

14. I think Kerry

has closed gap from about 6 to about 2 points. Three very reputable polls show the race a dead heat. Polls that oversample Republicans will show him losing. But that is not the real electorate.

[Awsi Dooger]

17. No one has been ahead, or ever will be ahead, by 7 or 8 points

Each side is guaranteed 44% minimum base, regardless of what day or hour the polls open. That has been the case all year. If you allow 1.5 points to Nader and the other minor candidates, that leaves 10.5% to squabble over. For someone to be ahead 7 points, he would have to dominate the swing voters by a 9 to 1.5% margin.