The eminent Mr. Zogby speaks on polls

[kstewart33]

He spoke with Taegan Goddard who posted the conversation on his great political website, Political Wire:

Zogby: "First of all, I still conduct telephone polls. The reality is that polling on the telephone is becoming more difficult; caller id and the widespread use of cell phones are affecting response rates. That said, I feel that representative samples can still be achieved on the phone.

Second, I stand by both my telephone and interactive results. I have yet to see evidence that the situation has gotten to the point where telephone surveys are unusable, and I am equally confident that my interactive surveys have reached a point where they are valid.

Third, cell phones do pose a problem for the polling industry, but not to the level Mr. Breslin feels. It is illegal for polling firms to call cell phones, coupling that with the rapidly increasing rate of cell phone use and the gradual decrease of land lines, the polling industry will face a crisis within a decade. For now, the 170 million cell phones are largely duplicates and triplicates of landlines. Also, many of the people Mr. Breslin cites as missing because of cell phones, are notoriously difficult to each, no matter the circumstance.

To clarify, my statements to Mr. Breslin were aimed at pointing to growing problems in the industry. As an industry, we must adapt to the future or face extinction, because the telephone will not always be a valid method of conducting random samples."





Link: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2004/09/17/the_problem_with_polls.html

[roseBudd]

1. the young have abandoned landlines

[Nederland]

6. That just means

...they are harder to get into a sample, not that they are absent from a sample.

[redstateblues]

15. It's Not Just the Young- I Know Middle Aged People that Have Also

[troublemaker]

2. Interesting reading. Thanks.

[kstewart33]

4. Done. Thanks for the proofing!

[goju]

7. Check this out

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=105x1686811

Not being a smart ass but I read the 2 threads back to back heheehe.

[goju]

3. I thought Zogby was a RW sympathizer? n/t

[Nederland]

9. Zogby

...is the most accurate pollster out there. Apparently some people around here don't like the fact that he predicts accurate results instead of Democratic results.

[goju]

12. I can see that

at least one of his polls have turned out to be funded by RW backed orgnaizations/people.

Who knows :shrug:

[Nederland]

16. Irelevant

Zogby cherishes his position as being the most accurate pollster out there. He final polling was closest (i.e. closer than any other pollster out there) to the actual results in 1992, 1996, and 2000. He is not going to screw up his record just because a RW group or a LW group is paying the bill. He will simply do the poll and report the results. BTW, he happens to be a Democrat, though he claims that does not effect his polling.

[goju]

18. Well

Just dont mention the Zogby Poll on American Values. That is treated with contempt for the reasons I mentioned. Especially in the gungeon.

[spooky3]

13. Zogby results tend to be more favorable to Dems than do other polls.

See Pollkatz's site for data, such as the following.



http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/files/bushindexprobushtable.htm

So it may be a case where the pollster's results are usually both accurate AND favorable to Democrats.

[EST]

14. Actually, (in my opinion, of course,) based on the newsletter

that he sends to subscribers, Zogby tends to be pretty harsh (doggedly truthful) with BFEE. Refreshing.

[napi21]

5. Cells are a problem for him, but another bigger problem, I think,

is caller ID. He mentioned it breifly. Many people with land lines have caller ID, and simply won't answer the phone if there's no ID or it's a # they don't know.

Both of those problems together would skew the polling results, although I'm not sure which way.

I guess we'll see in several weeks how accurate they are.

[partygirl]

8. how come I have

been polled on my cell phone (Virgin Mobile)? I even asked them about how they got my number etc. When I signed up--Virgin had me fill out an on-line form about if I would be willing to do polls and I had said YES so they poll me. I guess if you say NO you can't get polled? Do all cell phone companies do this? Is it legal? Zogby says you can't poll cell phone people---and I have been polled TWICE since 2001.

[spooky3]

17. I would guess that because a lot of people are charged per minute of

cell use, calls to them (like faxes that use up ink and paper) are treated different from calls to landlines. But maybe the law is written so that you can volunteer to be polled and if so, the law does not prevent the pollster from calling you.

[partygirl]

19. yes I imagine that

since I said I could be polled I am one of the few. And that is why I have been polled more than once (didn't seem likely).

[AntiFascist]

10. Simple question....

If the poller gets an answering machine or voicemail do they typically leave a callback number?

[tritsofme]

11. Usually

They will call back several times until they get a response.