Even ABC's The Note Questions the *Wild Swings* of the Gallop poll

[liveoaktx]

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote.html

The best example of how degrading it can be to be a political reporter: USA Today 's classy Susan Page forced to write up the Gallup poll/joke "showing" the president with a mythical 13-point lead for the front page of her paper — thus suggesting Gallup's 2000 track record of wild swings might be replicated this cycle.

(Question it gives rise to: What's the real margin? A. 5-6 points, with Bush holding small- to medium-sized (surmountable) leads in most of the important battlegrounds.)

[joeybee12]

1. Is Gallup the tracking poll CNN used in 2000?

As I recall, the daily tracking poll had Dumbo up by as much as 15 getting close to the election, and the other polls showing a closer race. Then, on Election Day, they had Gore up by about half a percentage point, which is what he won the election by.

[liveoaktx]

2. Yes-link

http://www.guardian.co.uk/US_election_race/Story/0,2763,389295,00.html

[joeybee12]

5. Thanks!

[Teaser]

3. Ouch, that's some serious snark.

Man, the writers at the Note are just plain mean. It's nice when they're on our side, but I don't know if it's worth it.

[lancdem]

6. Yeah, if the ABC poll showed a 13-point lead

the Note would vouch for its accuracy, I'll bet.

[lancdem]

4. I don't think Bush is even ahead 5-6 points nationally

It's more like a couple of points at most. I don't believe Kerry is ahead yet, but he's not behind by much.