Surreal polls: Kerry has better chance in Mississippi than Wisc.

[quaoar]

Current poll in Wisconsin shows Bush up by 14 -- same lead as in Alabama.
Current poll in Mississippi shows Bush up by only 9

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[JuniorPlankton]

1. The bizarre world of bizarre polls

screw them

[Maddy McCall]

3. Actually, this is probably correct (Mississippi poll, anyway)

Mississippi Dem HQs are receiving overwhelming requests for yard signs, bumperstickers, and pins. We are working hard here.

[democratreformed]

10. Thanks for your work, jchild

Working here in Arkansas too.

[Maddy McCall]

2. It's not bizarre at all. We are working our asses off in Mississippi...

Although we are aware of the reality that we won't be a blue state, we are trying at least to be a pink state.

[polmaven]

9. That just struck me!

Pink State....LOL! How do you think KKKarl will react to referring to pink and Bush in the same sentence? Girly man, anyone???

[polmaven]

4. I love how WI

from 50%-48% Kerry on 9/17 to 58%-38% Bush 3 days later.....LOL!

[shaolinmonkey]

5. I'm ashamed of my state. We've got some frightful

wingnuts running around here. They're gonna flush this great state right down the toilet. But at least the Brewers didn't leave. </sarcasm>

[Poiuyt]

12. There's no way that Bush is up by 14 pt.

I live in a conservative area of the state and I would say that it's about even here to maybe 60/40 Bush. Once you toss in Madison and Milwaukee, things turn more towards Kerry

[KharmaTrain]

6. ABC Poll? Oversampled GOOP? I Love It

All this angst on biased polls or poor samples and methodology is amusing. How different polls taken just days apart or simultaneously can show such different numbers is worthy of post-election analysis. Just like many old-guard corporations in this country, pollsters are using 1992 standards to measure 2004 lives. Some are using even later models.

I listen to a lot of Wisconsin radio, have been to the state in recent weeks and have many good friends there. Nothing's changed much in recent weeks other than the outrage that the polls are showing so different than from what many people there are feeling. Kinda the same reactions many veterans had when the slimeboat lies went unchallenged. There may have been a "gut check", but surely no swing that would take the state from 5-10 plus for Kerry to the opposite.

Isn't it amazing how pollsters or pundit-pollsters will make all sorts of claims when their numbers come out, yet rarely qualify them when questioned how the surveys are conducted. Or how silent they become when their results trend constantly counter to other polls.

Methinks a lot of guys running around as pollsters will be looking for new scams after November...but have no fear, another cadre of pundit-pollsters are ready to fill the "abyss".

[Maddy McCall]

17. So you are saying that they are oversampling Repubs in Wisc.

Well are you also concluding that they are oversampling Repubs in Mississippi?

Then Mississippi JUST MIGHT go blue if what you say is correct.

[pmbryant]

7. Shows how useless many state polls are

It has always stuck in my mind how a poll in CA a few days before the 2000 election showed Gore only up by 1 point.

Silly me actually got somewhat nervous about CA.

I hope I know better now.

--Peter

[AliceWonderland]

8. Okay. Alice says that Colorado poll is just *silly*

Hmph. 51%-39%? Surreal indeed.

[Teaser]

11. Wisconsin poll an outlier.

ARG supports that hypothesis.

[LTR]

13. WI poll is a bunch of crap

Wisconsin a solid red state? Yeah, right! I'll believe that when Kerry wins Idaho by 10+ points.

It's neck-and-neck here. Gore barely won it in 2000. But remember the large college and minority populations in Milwaukee and Madison. They often don't get sampled in polls. And I'm sure there more of a lock for Kerry than they were for Gore in 2000. I honestly think Wisconsin will go to Kerry this year.

Bush by 14 in Wisconsin? Sounds more like the Belling Poll than the Badger Poll.

[goddess40]

14. Nadar factor

In the 2000 presidential race Nadar got over 96,000 votes in Wisconsin. I seriously doubt that will happen again. Gore won by 5000 votes in 2000. If even half of the Nadar voters vote for Kerry he will win easily.

[The Chronicler]

15. If Bush is really up 14 in WI we are in trouble.

No way should Bush be up that much there. 14 points??? Give me a break. We need to win that state.

[Teaser]

16. Don't sweat it...

he ain't up there. It's likely a tie right now.