TOSS THE MEDIAWHORE POLLS. KERRY IS WINNING! TRUST ZOGBY. TRUST ARG.

[TruthIsAll]

TRUST THE ELECTION MODEL.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel

[59millionmorons]

1. ARG?

This chart shows by on average how each polling firm has done over the last 12-14 years. Zogby and Harris are the best and yes gallup and Rassmussen are the worst. The numbers are by how much on average they have missed there predictions by.

1.Zogby-1.0
2.Harris-2.0
3.ABC/WashPost-2.75
4.NBC/WSJ-3.0
5.Battleground-3.0
6.IICR-3.5
7.CBS -3.75
8.Pew-4.0
9.Gallup-4.25
10.Rasmussen-9.0

http://www.ncpp.org/1936-2000.htm

[Trajan]

2. Where us SurveyUSA in that group ? ...

American Research Group (ARG) is also prominent lately ...

SurveyUSA is a bunch of rethuglican number twisters who cannot be trusted .... that I do know ...

[59millionmorons]

3. not listed

As far as I can see. You can probably find there results on there site.

Update
I can't find it on there site, but I emailed them for there past results.

[rfranklin]

4. Don't let the Republicans see these projections...

I want to see the look on their faces when they lose by 10%!

Thank you, Jesus!

[Awsi Dooger]

11. I think SurveyUSA is exclusively state polls

I don't remember a national SurveyUSA poll, and no doubt that's why they are not included on the list.

SurveyUSA claims to use local television anchorpeople to ask poll questions. It's a bizarre method that is seemingly overly dependent on the competence, energy level and partisanship of those TV employees. I 'll look at SurveyUSA polls, but never as a high priority source.

[tritsofme]

12. Survey USA was created in 2002 IIRC

So they haven't polled a Presidential election yet.

[Awsi Dooger]

16. That can't be right

I began studying poll numbers in 1996 and SurveyUSA has been around at least that long. They have always been on my Excel files. Perhaps this year they will do a national poll for the first time, although I have not seen one yet.

[tritsofme]

18. You're right, my bad

They were started in 1992.

[fob]

5. There you are!

Hey TIA, with the release of the gallup internals that skew their results (55 b* to 42 K), because they use a mix of 40% pukes to 33% Dems and 28% Ind/Other, which is way off historical data that is closer to 39% Dems, 35% pukes and 27% Ind/Other. My question is what happens to the gallup poll when it is reexamined using the more accurate historical data? If it can be done that way of course.

[59millionmorons]

6. More

What would the new Gallup FL polls say if recalculate it right, also the new Time poll.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Don't bother. Just trust Zogby and ARG.

Check my other post now on page 1.

[Andromeda]

27. Kick!

:kick:

[saracat]

7. Thank You,TruthIsAll !

I am sooo sick of everyone whining about those trash polls and causing defeatism under the guise of being "practical"! You are a breath of fresh air. Keep up the good work!

[olddem43]

9. Thanks TIA - you is da man!

Keep the good news coming.

[Kathleen04]

10. ARG seemed to be

accurate during the primaries. I followed their state polls pretty closely.

[VOX]

13. Thanks, TIA, for the dose of sanity.

Much appreciated!

:kick:

[tritsofme]

14. On what grounds should I trust Zogby Interactive?

Maybe if he proves himself after the election, but this methodology has never been proven, and they weren't that great in 2002.

[TruthIsAll]

15. On what grounds do you trust Gallup?

Oh, they have already proven themselves. I see. Like in 2000, when they had a Bush 52-39 lead 2 weeks before the election.

Or in their polls which have Bush 10 points ahead. Why should I trust Gallup when they are paid by CNN to shill for Bush?

Get Real.

Zogby AND Harris were both dead-on in 2000. No one else was.

That's why I trust the Indies: Zogby. ARG. Harris. The Economist. PEW.


On edit: Once again, in case you don't know, the Repukes stole the senate in 2002. GA, NH, MN, CO, TX.

Zogby was right. So right, VNS had to cancel the exit polls so that Bush could steal it in those states.

Jeez, do your homework before you say Zogby sucks.

[tritsofme]

17. I trust Harris, Battleground, and Gallup

Zogby understated bush's support in their final 2000 poll by about the same amount as Gallup understated Gore's vote, 2%, within the sampling error. Zogby also overshot Nader's support by 3%. Gallup's tracking poll also caught the movement toward Gore in the closing week of the campaign.

Was it ARG or Research 2000 that had Gore winning numerous Southern states by ridiculous margins in closing day of the campaign?

And I do not even take issue with Zogby's telephone polling, its the internet Interactive polls that I take issue with. They didn't turnout that great in 2002.

[bringbackfdr]

20. Gallup's a joke

I stopped paying attention to them long before this election. The smell of Repuke is all over every one of their sham polls.

[tritsofme]

21. We'll see on election day.

I have 95% confidence that their poll will be within the margin of error of the actual results. ;)

[bringbackfdr]

22. By Election Day ...

Gallup will have Shrub up about nine, which means Kerry will win by about three.

[bush equals idiot]

19. Right on.

Zogby and Harris are the only ones with an almost dead on record. But I'm sitting here laughing because there isn't a poll on the planet that's worth two cents now.

You're all giving yourself ulcers over information that will change so dramatically after all three debates that these threads will have proven ridiculous.

No one that hasn't made up their mind to vote for Kerry yet is only waiting to hear the debates. Then there's all the other avalanche of votes that cannot be accounted for yet. Such as the record overseas votes, the Blacks, the young voters, the first time voters. All these overwhelmingly for the most part, for Kerry.

TIA don't you agree? I say just save your fingers and wait until October 25th. Then watch the "poll" numbers.

[TruthIsAll]

26. I agree, but I will not stop posting. Every day. Right up to the end.

Hopefully, the model will keep giving us good news like the last few days. If Kerry continues to move like this he will be up over 330 EV with a 99% win probability right after the first debate.

[Forkboy]

23. Toss all polls!

[Barney Rocks]

24. TruthIsAll,

have I told you lately that I love you?

[Andromeda]

25. What really irks me ...

are the polls consistently shown on CNN and MSNBC. They're mostly Time/CNN/USA Today polls and MSNBC showed a CBS poll today that showed Bush up 7 or 8 points. All of the polls they show have Bush up at least 6 points.

The pundits are really spinning this. They are saying this election is Bushes to lose, etc., etc.