We can't give up on FL - polling the state has been tough in recent days

[fujiyama]

I've seen a lot of posts where people write the state off, but it would be EXTREMELY foolish to do so.

We need to have the troops on the ground there. Hopefully the lawyers will be better than those Gore had. We need to make sure the election it's absolutely fair (or atleast as fair as possible).

Even though I'd like to see Kerry win without FL, FL is 27 electoral votes and has a very important senate race as well this year. We can't afford to lose it. Sure, everyone is talking a lot about OH, but in many ways FL should be a more likely win. Gore did win it last time. We know that more people went to the polls that day believing they were voting for Gore. The demographics have shifted out way. If Bush loses it, he loses. There are few likely scenarios where he wins after losing FL. He'd have to win PA then. I highly doubt PA will go red. It's possible, but I doubt it.

Also, FL has been really tough to poll in recent days. So don't really buy the polls from the state.

FL is just as important, if not moreso than four years ago.

[tedoll78]

1. I kinda agree.

Florida has had millions move-in over the past four years, and over 1/2 of those new voters are minorities.. very good for Democrats!

That, and Ohio seems to be clinging to the religious hillbilly-ness of the surrounding states (IN, KY, WV..). Voter registration there still gives me great hope though..

[fujiyama]

3. I wish

OH would be voting the way their neighbors to the north vote (us here in MI).

MI seems to be trending more and more democratic. Kerry has been leading comfortably in many polls. I wouldn't call it safe, but it's a hell of a lot more likely to stay blue than OH is to turn.

[senseandsensibility]

2. No way should we write off FLA!

According to William Pitt's thread this morning, new registration of voters in FLA heavily outweighs new repuke registrations. These are people who wouldn't show up in the polls! No matter what the polls say, we shouldn't give up. And some of the polls I've seen lately look good, so giving up is definitely a lame idea.

[fujiyama]

4. That thread

was partly what sparked me to post this thread.

I was amazed by the statistics.

[featherman]

5. I'm sorry but I haven't noticed any legitimate polls

showing bad news from Florida. I mean there are a lot of polls around spewing garbage and all but, reading between the lines and weighing credibility, Florida seems to be polling between a toss-up and a +2 Kerry edge.

Currently I like Kerry to win Florida by about 2-4%.

I can't conceive of why loyal DEM would consider giving it up. It is a DEM majority state that is continuing to trend DEM. Just a question of ground war registration, get out the vote, make sure it is counted.

[fujiyama]

6. In the last few days

there was a Q Pac poll showing Bush up by 8. Oddly enough about th same time after the DNC they had Kerry up by a similar margin (7 points).

I'll split the difference and call it a toss up. Some other new polls have Bush up by 2-3 points. Even Gallup, which has not be kind to Kerry has Bush up by only 3 points there.

[senseandsensibility]

7. You're right

with an emphasis on "make sure it's counted". I think the support is there, so if the election is fair.....of course, that's a big if.

[Eurobabe]

8. I heard people are getting pissed at Bushes there...

[Guaranteed]

9. ARE YOU FRICKING *KIDDING* ME?

We HAVE to win Florida. THERE IS NO CHOICE HERE.

Since Wisconsin and Ohio seem to be out, we win Florida, or almost surely lose.

[fujiyama]

10. I wouldn't say

WI and OH are out, but I do agree that our chances in FL are looking better than either of those states.

[BillZBubb]

11. I don't think anyone is giving up on Florida just yet.

It's still an uphill battle, but winnable.

The thing that depresses me most about Florida is that after what he did in the 2000 election, they still reelected Jebthro. That makes me more negative on our chances than I should be probably. Still, any state that would reelect him after that grand theft can't be relied upon.

We've got to win Florida or Ohio. Without one of them, our chances don't look good. So don't give up!

[looking glass]

12. Probably a toss-up

Offset new voter registration with the knowledge that the governorship, house, and senate are held by the GOP.

I don't know what the outcome will be, but I'm pretty sure that Bush is not up by 7. I'm also pretty sure that Kerry is not up by 7.

[earthside]

13. New Voters Will Win FL for Kerry

A Big Increase in New Voters in Swing States

New York Times - September 26, 2004

Read this report.

Kerry is going to take Florida and Ohio.
There was also a story earlier in the week that ACT was closing its offices in Michigan and moving much of the staff to Florida.

Of course, newly registered voters are not going to show up in any polling. Especially "likely" voter polls where "likely" is determined by having voted in a previous election.

Now, the key to this is EVERYBODY doing their part in Get Out The Vote.

It is all GOTV!

[K8-EEE]

14. Dumb-ass Floridians!!! Eating Up GWB's Hurricane Photo Ops!

OMG, I saw these people interviewed on CNN, one of them said she was voting for Kerry but she saw Shrubby on TV handing out bags of ice so she's voting for him instead...

DUH!!! What President Kerry would have a Post-Hurrican No Bags Of Ice policy? Then this old guy said "When the President of the United States hands out bags of ice, you vote for him."

Cripes, unbelievable. Seriously between the 2000 election, the Elian craziness, Jeb Bush, Katherine Harris, UGH I can't stand FL. It is that absolute last state I would ever set foot in. It's horrible to think that national elections are held hostage by a place like that.

[fishnfla]

15. The vote count is the thing. have to keep the margin large

People have to fill in the ballots properly. The county election supervisors cannot be trusted with the over-votes, especially in minority districts. Turn out of the base and voter education are the keys.

[AndyTiedye]

16. We Could be Up by Double-Digits in Florida and "Lose"

Every single aspect of the electoral process in Florida is own3d
by the Rethuglicans. Poll-watchers can do nothing against electronic
election theft, or police coming to people's homes and initimidating
them out of voting, or the thousands who are still wrongfully
disenfranchised from the 2000 voter purge.

> We can't afford to lose it.

We can't afford to be in that position. If they can "win" the election
again by stealing Florida again, they will, and even if Kerry hires all
the lawyers in the world, he cannot stop them from doing so.

We need to concentrate our resources where our votes will be counted.