Rasmussen Battleground Update for 9/26 (Mostly Good News)

[louis c]

The Rasmussen 3 day National tracking poll shows improvement for Kerry. Today's results are Bush 47.2% to Kerry 46.5%. The slim seven tenths of one percent lead for Bush is the closest that Kerry has been in weeks and represents a full point increase from yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com


The battleground results for the five key states tracked daily by Rasmussen on a 7 day rolling average are as follows:

Florida, Kerry 49%-48% (Since 9/18, Florida has see-sawed between Bush and Kerry nearly every day. Neither candidate has had more than a two point lead for more than a single day. The 1 point Kerry lead today is a 2 point gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 48%-44% (Kerry's lead in Michigan has fluctuated between 3 and 6 points for one solid week. Today's numbers represent a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Minnesota, Tie 46% (Minnesota was just added to the five state daily tracking on Friday to replace North Carolina. The present tie reflects no change at all for those three days)

Ohio, Bush 49%-45% (Ohio has shown a Bush lead of between 2 and 4 points since at least 9/17. Today's numbers show a 1 point Bush gain from yesterday)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 48%-45% (Bush held a 5 point lead in Pennsylvania as little as nine days ago. Kerry slowly reduced that lead. Today's 3 point Kerry lead here represents a 4 point gain from yesterday, and is the best news in today's mostly good news from Rasmussen)

[wryter2000]

1. Thanks

Good news. I don't understand why the election projection sites are so unbalanced.

[louis c]

14. kick

[UrbScotty]

2. Shhh! Don't tell anyone!

Let's make them complacent!

[bryant69]

3. This is a ray of sunshine

Thanks for posting it.

Bryant
Check it out --> http://politicalcomment.blogspot.com

[MrSandman]

4. Is the SD Senate race really that close???

47-50 Thune

[louis c]

5. According to Rasmussen those are the numbers

[MrSandman]

6. But Daschle looked better than his opponent on...

"Meet the Press"

[louis c]

7. kick

[DemMother]

8. There's another poll that shows Daschle with a five point lead

I'll see if I can find it.

[MrSandman]

11. I hope Daschle can pull at least 5...nt

[DemFromMem]

9. Daschle up by 5

The big paper in the state just released a new poll showing Daschle up by 5, that he is getting 20% of the Republican vote (the so-called Bush-Daschle voters) and that there are virtually no undecideds left. Capital Gang on CNN interviewed the editor of the paper about the race tonight.

[sonicx]

10. why is kerry's dem support so low?

Rasmussen has it in the upper 70s. if it was in the mid 80s, Kerry would be ahead! :(

[louis c]

12. Democrats

tend to have a broader political spectrum than Repukes.

Some, like Union members, fancy themselves as "Reagan Democrats" and will never consider themselves Repukes, even though they vote and think that way. I think you will always find that Repukes are more united than Dems, but Dems are more numerous than Repukes.

Actually, in this race, I'm surprised that Kerry is so strong with indies (49%-37%).

[mconvente]

13. Looks good

I'd say PA is the safest of all these battleground states because they are so close to the New England Dem stronghold. Like other people have said, if we win PA and FL, it's basically over for shrubby. The worst possible scenario is probably right now where it's a toss-up in FL, OH, and I guess PA too. But like we've all said, the pollsters don't poll all the new voters and they are overwhelmingly democratic. So I'd say the worst outcome would be a 5-9 point EV win, but since we are rallying the new voters in all the battleground states, I can truly see a mega win for Kerry if we get over the hump there. If we win FL, PA, IA, MN, OH, NH, hell even NV, then that's at least 70+ win for Kerry.

[louis c]

15. kick

[noonwitch]

17. I can't see Bush winning Michigan

Not without finding a way to discount Detroit's votes. I was in Grand Rapids over the weekend and was amazed by the number off Kerry stickers and yard signs I saw, in a GOP stronghold. Not in Holland, of course, but the city of Grand Rapids and in Kentwood. There were still plenty of Bush signs and stickers around, especially in East Grand Rapids, but more dem support than usual. My mom said that GR currently even has a democratic mayor.

[npincus]

16. wondering if it's the slow drip of bad news from Iraq or Kerry's message

getting through that is (hopefully) turning this around.

[ShaneGR]

18. Ohio

Keep in mind that consistent polling in Ohio, in 2000, had Bush with a double-digit lead. Gore pulled out of the state three weeks ahead of time, and Bush still only won it by 3.7%. A 4 point spread there means nothing.