Quit going to electoral-vote.com

[ButterflyBlood]

I don't know why anyone pays attention to that site. It's utter trash. The methodology is complete garbage, it simply takes only the most recent poll from a state, no matter how bad, and it even includes those online Zogby polls. If some well established firm with a great track record shows Kerry up in a state by 7, and the next day some little fly by night operation shows * by 1, it gives the state to *. Ridiculous.

[mark414]

1. actually

as far as polls go, and i don't follow them, that's one of the better ones out there. i don't buy polls, but still it's an "accurate" site. he doesn't include any of the obviously flawed polls, like those post-RNC time and newsweek polls.

the guy who runs the site is actually a kerry supporter, believe it or not. he's just being as objective as possible.

[MallRat]

2. Apparently, the Votemaster has thrown his hands up as well.

Here is his own analysis, basically saying- these polls are worth shit:

September 28: Some bad news for the polling business.

Strategic Vision (R) has a new poll in Ohio showing Bush ahead 52% to 43% there. However, there is also a Lake Snell Perry (D) poll showing the race there to be an exact tie, with both candidates at 46%. It is becoming increasingly clear that the pollsters are producing the results that the people paying the bills want to hear.

Even pollsters who were once thought to be above suspicion are now suspicious. Gallup, for example, is now normalizing its samples to include 40% Republicans, even though the 2000 exit polls showed the partisan distribution to be 39% Democratic, 35% Republican. There is scant evidence that the underlying partisan distribution has changed much since then. Other pollsters also normalize their data, but most don't say how. Normalizing the sample to ensure the proper number of women, elderly voters, etc. is legitimate provided that the pollster publicly states what has been done.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Just look at these NJ trend lines

useless


http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-jersey.html

[ArkDem]

4. You are right. If you need realistic poll numbers search for threads

authored by TruthIsAll.

[gasperc]

5. he's just the messenger

clearly, as I and many have posted, there is a manufacturing of momentum and consent being deliberately orchestrated by key political operatives.

the votemaster is Pro-Kerry and has stated many times his skeptism of about some of the wild swings that have been coming his way.

I like the site he set up. The map is easy to view, you can get quick poll data and look at the raw data in the excel file as you wish.

He is making great points about Gallups totally fucked up methodology, I am going to put together an e-mail with as much exit poll data as possible to see if we here can do a media blast to force Gallup to explain why they are using fucked up weighting that contradicts 30 years of actuall voting day exit poll results.

Does Gallup believe that 10% of democrats will stay home thinking we can't win? do they think the GOP will turn out in higher numbers to support Bush?

A media blast is in order to dis-credit Gallups latest polls, something stinks and if a right wing Atlanta lawyer can become a typesetting specialist in 4 hours and bring CBS and Dan Rather to their knees. Then we can force Gallup to FIX thier polling or drive them out of business with something simple as facts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[VirginiaDem]

6. I like www.race2004.net

for the most part. It gives good info on Nader's status, gives a scrolling list of the latest polls and has a methodology much more rational than electoral vote--they take the three latest polls and average them or something like that. They do include bs polls like Survey's and they err on the side of caution so there are a lot of undecideds (which is true but we'd like to see an if-the-vote-were-held-today red-blue map).
www.race2004.net--try it out