MSNBC: LA Times Poll: Bush 51 - Kerry 46

[ItsMyParty]

Bush has now gotten the majority of independent voters and Kerry has lost among marrried women. Bascially in all these polls, it seems that 45-46 is where Kerry consistently shows up and Bush ranges from 52 to tied with him. I want to say something else: I'm afraid in those blue states were Gore won by a slim percentage (a couple thousand votes) that it could very well have been on name recognition only--remember a lot of people know spit nothing about what is going on and only indentify with a name. That, unfortunately, will be reversed this time around. They know the name Bush. We have a mighty fight on our hands in some of those blue states.

[cspiguy]

1. jfk has to make a case for himself - not just because he's not *

and he better do it quick or we start working on the Hill '08 campaign.

[Cha]

2. Sorry, I don't believe it..it's the meme...

Not buying and I'm not the only one.

[Mojambo]

3. "They know the name Bush."

This is why we'll be winning on November 2nd

[Catfight]

4. SWEET! The longer that ladder is for Bush to fall off of makes me

happy! King George is going to be de-throne!

[Teaser]

5. Read the poll before posting.

Look at the registered voters. Same numbers as last time. Exactly. The only difference is in the Likely voters numbers.

What does that tell you? It tells you that these gains your citing are likely largely artifactual, a product of the likely voter formula only, and not movement in the underlying numbers.

Of course, you may have a reason to want to believe otherwise. I don't know. But people need to quit posting bullshit and think a little. It's not hard.

[WI_DEM]

6. even if it is really a 5-point margin for Bush why do people panic?

Here is some historical comparison. In 1968 Hubert Humphrey was behind by 16-points to Richard Nixon at the end of September. Gerald Ford was behind by about 8-10 points to Jimmy Carter in 1976--and both of them came close to winning--much farther behind than Kerry is.