AL Gov Poll: Riley Leads Baxley; Moore Behind Both Baxley and Siegelman

[BamaLefty]

February 8, 2006--Governor Bob Riley (R) holds single digit leads over two Democrats who want his job. The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Alabama shows Riley leading Lt. Governor Lucy Baxley (D) 47% to 40%.

Baxley is considered the favorite to win the Democratic nomination. However, Riley is also being challenged by the man he beat four years ago, Don Siegelman. In that re-match, Riley has a nine point advantage, 49% to 40%.

Any Incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign season is potentially vulnerable. While Alabama would normally be considered a solid Republican state, Riley outraged his base by seeking a statewide referendum to raise taxes. For some Republicans, that's unforgivable. As a result, Riley opened the door for Democrats to be competitive in this "Red" state.

Riley also faces a primary challenge from Roy Moore, the judge who came to fame by insisting on the public display of the Ten Commandments. While 76% of Alabama voters agree that the Ten Commandments should be displayed in courthouses and other public buildings, Moore trails both Democrats in general election match-ups.

Election 2006

Alabama Governor
Bob Riley (R) 47%
Lucy Baxley (D) 40%

Election 2006

Alabama Governor
Roy Moore (R) 39%
Lucy Baxley (D) 50%

So what does this mean? Vote for Moore in the GOP primary to get a Dem Gov? :shrug:

http://rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Alabama%20Governor%20January.htm

[Syrinx]

1. We Can't Afford To Take That Chance

I've been saying for a while that I'll vote in the GOP primary against Moore. The election of Moore would be devastating to the state and people of Alabama.

With Moore's election, you'd see Dominionists like Tom Parker and Gerald Allen consolidate power, and that is a prospect that is truly terrifying. Although they won't say it quite out loud, those freaks actually want to execute gay people (and could liberals, pagans and individualists be far behind?), and with Altio and Roberts on the Supreme Court, they may get away with it.

I got kind of enthusiastic about Riley when he put his tax-reform plan on the table. It was more ambitious and progressive than what any recent governor, Democrat or Republican, had ever put forth. But he gave up way too easily. And to see him on tv sucking up to Bush makes me ill.

While I'd love to see a Democrat take back the governor's mansion, it is imperative that we keep Roy out of it. All the progress the state has made in the last thirty years would instantly fly out the window, and we'd be known as the American Taliban state. As bad as Wallace was in his segregationist heyday, he was never a paranoid lunatic.

(Why Jim Folsom doesn't make a run, I don't know. He was a damn good governor.)

So I'm sticking by my plan: help defeat Moore in the primary, and then hope and pray we can defeat Riley in November. (Hint: A particularly nasty GOP primary will help the good guys in the end.)

Here's to our luck. :toast:

[Sue Bell for CJ2]

2. no!!!

We NEED Baxley to win the Dem primary. Moore is toast. Baxley could get upset with low turnout.

[Syrinx]

3. I'm surprised Moore is doing as badly as he seems to be

I've long thought Riley would beat Moore, but figured it would be pretty close. And I'm still not convinced that it won't be. I think a lot of Moore supporters may be playing games with the pollsters.

[Sue Bell for CJ2]

4. maybe

I think there are probably a lot of Moore supporters who just don't answer pollsters. But the underlying factor is that there are a lot of would-be Moore supporters who are going to vote for Riley because they are satisfied with the job he's done as governor. If you look at more detailed polls, you get a lot of people who like Roy Moore (i.e. they answer very positive when asked their view of Moore), and agreed with his fight over the monument, but who still intend to vote for Riley.

Say what you will about the legitimacy of the charges against Siegelman, he would still be a drag on the entire ticket, from the state house to the judiciary. People believe that he was shady, if not criminal, and he could really hurt the Democratic ticket. Lucy has to beat him in order to give the down ballot races a shot.

Seriously, Moore isn't really a threat this year. What you really need to worry about is Moore in 2010, because that's a legitimate threat.

[Syrinx]

5. Interesting points

You're not Sue Bell, are you?

[AUYellowDog]

6. I'm more worried about him in 2008 than 2010. n/t

[peacebaby3]

8. Are you working on Sue Bell's campaign? I called her HQ back late

last year and they said nothing was really going on at the time.

Of all the race's in the entire state, this is probably the most important in my opinion. Sue Bell Cobb has to win!

[quaoar]

9. Moore is flying under the radar

His fundraising is way behind Riley and he has yet to be on TV.

But he'll do better than he's polling.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi Sue Bell for CJ2!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[quaoar]

10. Riley is on cruise control right now

Baxley is not going to beat him unless something happens between now and November to change the equation.