Just wondering...how many state Senate seats would Dems have to gain in Cali

[Ken Burch]

for the "No New Taxes, Ever!" (Picture senate Republicans sounding like Joan Crawford in "Mommie Dearest" to get full effect) crowd in that chamber to be taken out of effective control?

I know Dems have a majority in the state Senate, but those crazies always seem to call the tune on this.

Would the number of seats that would have to swing be prohitively large?

[Xithras]

1. We would need a 2/3rds majority.

The Senate currently has 25 Democrats and 15 Republicans. We would need to pick up two additional seats to get that supermajority.

The Assembly currently has 49 Democrats, 29 Republicans, and 2 "other". In the Assembly, that pencils out to a 5 seat gain to get the supermajority.

It doesn't sound like much, but many of these districts were designed to solidly belong to one side or the other. I've heard a few knowledgable people comment that it might be possible to gain a supermajority in the Senate during the next election cycle if we really tried, but it would take many cycles, taking at least a decade, to pull it off in the Assembly. The voting is trending Democratic anyway, so we'll eventually get there, but it will be far too late to help with this current crisis.

[slackmaster]

2. The state senate and assembly districts may be completely different by Nov. 2010

Don't forget about Proposition 11 from the 2008 election.

[Xithras]

3. Redistricting won't be a factor until at least 2012. Maybe longer.

They aren't even selecting the initial commission members until November 20 of this year, and the last members until December 31. After that, they have a year to develop a plan. Once the plan is reached, they must get 3 of the 5 Republicans to approve, 3 of the 5 Democrats to approve, and three additional votes from other Democrats or Republicans to approve. If 9 of the 14 commission member support it, and the 5 Republicans refuse to vote for it, it fails even with a majority vote. A minimum of 3 supporters from each party is required.

This means that the resulting districting changes will be milquetoast (meaning little real change), or the "backup" plan within prop 11 will be activated and it will be taken before the courts to let them settle it (a process that could take years).

[Ken Burch]

4. I wonder if that's the GOP strategy.

Force the state into a permanent budget straightjacket and eternal Reaganism before redistricting turns the legislature over to the working-class Rainbow majority.