Will Prop 14 turn CA red in 2012?

[Sirveri]

That's a good question. In the 2008 primaries the top two vote getters were Barrack Obama and Hillary Clinton, if Prop 14 had been in effect in Nov '08 then the race for the California presidential election would have been between Obama and Clinton, with McCain not even on the ballot. While this is amusing to consider back during that time frame it brings up an interesting point today.

With Obama causing a mass rift between his base, and the potential for a strong turnout from Republican voters during a primary that potentially will decide between Palin and a more moderate Republican, we could see very high turnout on the right. This combined with a depressed liberal turnout, and a possible set of primary protest votes against Obama, this situation could lead to having two Republican candidates on the ballot in Nov '12, and quite possibly a red state outcome. Some would then think that a write in campaign would be successful in this case, pointing to the Alaska election between Murkowski and Miller. However a hidden provision in Prop 14 eliminates the write in option, and is the subject of a pending lawsuit filed on July 29, 2010.

[bemildred]

1. The two-party system is dead, it's just hasn't fallen over yet.

With Citizen's United and open primaries in place, parties will come to mean about as much as astrological signs.

[KamaAina]

2. Does Prop 14 apply to Presidential elections?

Remember, we're not really voting for the candidates, we're voting for electors.

Also, Louisiana's similar "jungle primary" system was struck down as it applies to all federal elections. (Note: Modeling one's electoral system on Louisiana's is seldom a good idea. :eyes: )

[Sirveri]

3. That's a point I don't know the answer to. It wouldn't surprise me if it did though.

I was really pissed off when this ridiculous piece of garbage legislation passed (the entire prop system needs to be eliminated). Actually I'm pissed off when most of the props pass... Anyhow, I suspect it might still apply, since even though you're voting for electors, you basically voting for the person, and thus only the top two people (and/or their electors) during the primary would show. Yay for direct democracy, what a better way to establish fascism...

[rrichard63]

4. No, it doesn't

No, Prop. 14 does not apply to Presidential elections. But the hypothetical example in the original post shows very clearly one important reason why it's crazy.