What will be the makeup of our congressional House delegation?

[El Supremo]

Poll question: What will be the makeup of our congressional House delegation?

Vote what you think will happen after the votes are counted - not like you wish it would be. Think of it as if you had to bet a month's income.

The current makeup is 3 Ds - 4 Rs.

Here are the Democrats vs. their Republican challengers. I didn't include any 3rd party candidates, although it looks like Eidsness may get a decent amount of votes in the 4th. "I" means incumbent.

1st - DeGette (I) vs. none
2nd - Udall (I) vs. Mancuso
3rd - Salazar (I) vs. Tipton
4th - Paccione vs. Musgrave (I)
5th - Fawcett vs. Lamborn
6th - Winter vs. Tancredo (I)
7th - Perlmutter vs. O'Donnell

[Hawkeye-X]

1. 3 incumbents are safe

DeGette, Udall and Salazar

But.. all 4 have excellent chances of winning.

Fawcett, Paccione, Winter and Perlmutter.

[El Supremo]

2. Last incumbent to lose:

I looked it up and it appears that Ben Nighthorse Campbell was the last Colorado congressperson to defeat an incumbent. That happened in 1986 when he beat Michael L. Strang for the 4th Congressional District. Oh, Benedict Campbell was a Democrat at that time.

So what's the point? Incumbents have won 48 House and 2 Senate elections since then. It is really hard to beat an incumbent!

[paulk]

3. Denver Post had an article this morning

that the RNCC is pulling out of the CD 7 race and is going to use the money in the 4th and 5th district races. So it looks like a 4 - 3 Democratic advantage at the least.

If I had to bet a month's income, I'd stop there and count that as quite a victory.

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I still think we've got a shot at CD 4, though. That would really be something! CD 5 - It's going to be hard to counter the Republican GOTV down there, especially since they've decided to put more $ into the race.

[Hawkeye-X]

4. CD-5 will be Democratic

Lamborn is FotF buttboy and will lose.

Even Hefley won't endorse Lamborn.

Hawkeye-X

[paulk]

5. I hope so

I really do....

That would be icing on the cake.