Zogby poll: Gov's race begins to tighten; Lieberman still ahead by 10

[Nutmegger]

A new poll by Zogby International suggests that the Connecticut gubernatorial race has begun to tighten, placing Gov. M. Jodi Rell ahead of New Haven Mayor John DeStefano by 17 points.

But a Rell spokesman discounted those results, saying Zogby doesn't use a random sampling process and that it questioned only about half the number of "likely voters" surveyed in another poll.

And while the Zogby poll tracks Rell's lead at about half the 32-point margin she held in a Quinnipiac University survey released this month, the two polls are relatively similar when it comes to the race for U.S. Senate.

Zogby found U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, a New Haven Democrat running without his party's endorsement, leads Democratic nominee Ned Lamont of Greenwich 49.4 percent to 39.4 percent, with 2.1 percent going to the Republican nominee, former Derby Mayor Alan Schlesinger. Lieberman held a 12-point edge over Lamont in an Aug. 17 Quinnipiac poll.

Full article: http://www.journalinquirer.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=17122988&BRD=985&PAG=461&dept_id=161556&rfi=6
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Anyone else have a reaction to the results? Polls are polls right, but there's no doubt that Snow White's numbers are shrinking just a bit.

[Larkspur]

1. These polls represent the starting point for the general election

The GE campaigns will begin in earnest after Labor Day.

Zogby's polls are not the most reliable. He's been changing his methodology because phone banking is not working as well as it did in the past due to caller id and no-call lists. The only thing about this poll is that it nearly matches the Quinnipiac poll, which had wide fluctuations during the primary.

The key to all polls is the trends. And don't add numbers from different polls together because they all have different metodologies. The Q-poll showed a pro-Lamont trend even though Lieberman was in the lead. The Rasmussen and ARG also show a pro-Lamont trend. Zogby didn't poll the Lieberman-Lamont primary race, so this is their first poll on this race.

In the Gov's race, the Q-poll which has been tracking the Gov's race still had DeStefano down by a lot. It will be interesting to see what the next poll shows.

[LA lady]

2. WTF?

A new Public Opinion Strategies poll finds Ned Lamont (D) trailing Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), 51% to 35%, in the Connecticut U.S. Senate race. Republican Alan Schlesinger receives 4% of the vote, while 10% remain undecided.

Key finding: When asked which candidate is running a negative campaign, 40% say Lamont compared to 19% for Lieberman.

[Larkspur]

3. They must have polled Republicans heavily

Only they and Lieber-crats would believe that Lamont is running a negative campaign compared to Lieberman.

[CTyankee]

4. Challenging the incumbent is considered "negative" lots of times

which is too bad. I have a couple of colleagues, good Dems, who questioned Lamont's ads. But that was before the primary. I doubt if they feel that way now.

I'm excited about going to the strategy meeting at Lamont's HQ in New Haven this evening. Eager to get going again and work the phones. I was calling Dem seniors before the primary since I volunteered in weekday afternoons. It was a little frustrating because so many of them simply would not tell me who they had decided to vote for! I gave them the pitch for Ned anyway.

Will you be there tonight?

[Larkspur]

5. I'll be in Willimantic Saturday morning

And I help set up a volunteer's meeting in my corner of CT -- Northeast -- for Thursday, Sept 14.

New Haven is 1.5 hours from me.

[CTyankee]

6. That's great. I hope you have a big crowd of volunteers, too!

How's the interest in Lamont in Willi?

[Larkspur]

7. Willimantic loves Lamont

I live in the Quiet Corner and it tends to be more conservative. Lamont won half the towns in the Quiet Corner, but the towns he lost, he didn't lose by much.

[Freddie Stubbs]

8. Zogby's poll of last week's FL primary was very accurate

He had Crist ahead of Gallagher by 29.5% Crist won by 30.5%

Zogby also had Davis leading Smith by 4.9% Davis won 6.1%

http://www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=13616

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/Elections/ResultsArchive/Enight.asp