Zogby Poll has Rauschenberger Beating Blagojevich

[tritsofme]

On the heels of the decision by former Governor Jim Edgar not to run for Governor in 2006, State Senator Steve Rauschenberger (R-Elgin), a 13-year lawmaker, has emerged as perhaps the GOP's best chance to defeat incumbent Governor Rod Blagojevich, according to a poll released by Zogby International.

The poll, conducted from September 16-21, shows Rauschenberger with a slim 1-point margin over incumbent Governor Rod Blagojevich, 41.3-40.4%. The poll also seemingly indicates that Rauschenberger provides the best head-to-head match-up with Blagojevich for the Republican party now that Edgar has decided he will not be a candidate. The Zogby poll was conducted prior to Edgar's announcement and showed Edgar with a 12-point margin in a head-to-head match-up with Blagojevich.

“The poll is very encouraging,” said Rauschenberger. “It provides validation that our campaign’s effort to reconnect with middle class families in Illinois by providing honest, forthright, and thoughtful leadership is resonating.”

The poll was also conducted before Rauschenberger unveiled his endorsement by former U.S. Senator Peter Fitzgerald last week, an endorsement he expects will aide him in attracting conservative primary voters.

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http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=11914

Blago needs to start his campaign now, I always hear about his millions of dollars in the bank that he's travelled all over the country collecting, its time to use some of it.

Put ads on the air ect ect.

He is very vulnerable and needs to stop pussyfooting around.

[benny05]

1. I think Blago will win

But he has pissed off a lot of us downstate.

[tritsofme]

2. If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say he's going to lose.

An approval rating consistently in the 30% range, and polling just about even with no-name Republican candidates is not a good sign.

Incumbents with approval ratings under 50% rarely get reelected, it would be almost impossible and certaintly unprecedented for Blago to win if he went into the election with approval below 40%.

People in general shouldn't find comfort in the fact that we are a "blue" state, and need to realize that a Republican could easily win this race.

[kevin881]

3. I agree. at the end of the day...

the way that chicago goes... is the way that the state goes. there simply isnt enough population to swing against chicago.

blago will win, he has more money than anyone can imagine to advertise with. bad PR for bush and the gop, means it will be an uphill battle for anyone running under that party.

[kevsand]

4. That is wrong on so many levels.

First of all, it would mean that Chicago has been a Republican town for over twenty-five years, since we had an unbroken string of Repub governors from 1976 to 2002. Since Chicago was clearly Democratic all that time, your statement that Chicago outweighs the rest of the state is clearly in error.

Further proof of this is provided by the fact that Blag would never have won either the primary or the general election in 2002 without significant support from downstate. His Chicago numbers were not sufficiently high in either election to put him over the top by themselves. That downstate support is far from guaranteed this time, at least at this point.

Second, no amount of money can overcome an entrenched negative rating, which is what Blag has been in the process of calcifying. The biggest spender by a significant margin in the 2004 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate finished a far distant third.

This is still winnable for Blag, but he (and we) can't afford to take anything for granted.

[madrchsod]

5. rauschenberger will win most of the state but

may lose because of chicago.yes, blago has a big problem.

[dogfacedboy]

6. And isn't Rauschenberger a regular, ordinary R,

and not a radical righty?

[tritsofme]

7. There could definitely be worse

IIRC he is at least pro-choice.

Also wasn't there some sort DUI type thing in his past?

[dogman]

9. Depends on issues that are important to you.

I'm a Democrat and a union member. I'm a veteran and a parent and a grandparent. I would like to retire in security. Any R is contrary to all those things. The Rs had to much power too long and thet waste no time abusing thye rest of us. I don't want to see the veto in R hands.

[billyf65]

8. Garbage poll

This is based on a web interactive poll -- it polled people who chose to be polled.

This was covered pretty extensively in the Capitol Fax blog about ten days ago.

And to cover other posts - Republican Governors, particularly Thompson and Ryan, did very well in Chicago. It's the collars the suburbs that nearly always tip the balance.

[tritsofme]

10. Your hat's on backwards

The collar counties are traditionally Republican, Thompson and Ryan never won Chicago, they may not have gotten crushed in Chicago, but they certaintly never won it.

If a Democrat doesn't clean up Chicago good, he will probably lose.

I didn't know that was on of those wacky Interactive polls, they are junk, but it doesn't mask the underlying problems surrounding Blago's reelection.

[billyf65]

12. Not wearing a hat.

I never said Thompson and Ryan (or Edgar for that matter) won Chicago. But they performed well enough to cut into their Dem counterparts - helping them win.

Ditto Sub Cook and the Collars. Of course they traditionally vote Republican, but suburban voters -specifically women- have been a key demographic for Dem voters to cut into traditional GOP turf.

[Southsideirish]

11. I agree that poll is so rotten it stinks! NO one even knows who the

hell Rauschenburger (or whatever his name is)is! The first time I heard it announced as "news" on the local radio station I had to laugh - I knew it was a corker.