Is Kendal Ehrlich for real in running for Senate?

[elshiva]

All I can say is "ewwww."

[WorseBeforeBetter]

1. Would that be Mrs. Governor...

or perhaps Daughter Governor? One Ehrlich in office is one too many...

[elshiva]

2. Yeah and what is her experience?

[WorseBeforeBetter]

3. Other than bashing Britney Spears...

I have no idea. I'll Google her - I'm curious.

On edit:

http://www.governor.maryland.gov/firstladybio.html

[elshiva]

9. According to this bio,

the only experience she has is as an attorney. I don't see how this will help her become a Senator. Granted most Senators have that background, but how could she stand up to a member of congress like Mfume?

[WorseBeforeBetter]

10. Character assassination is my guess...

Spread rumors about an extramarital affair like they did w/ O'Malley. WPFW (Gloria Minot) had an interesting segment this a.m. re the upcoming MD races (Mfume, Wynn, Duncan, O'Malley, etc.). Supposedly O'Malley is considering the senate slot - I wish he'd save it for gov. Mfume for senate.

[DaveinMD]

4. I seriously doubt this would happen

I think Pipkin or Steele will be the Republican candidate. Gilchrist as a long shot.

[Zuni]

7. Gilchrest is their best shot

He is by far the most sane Republican in MD I can think of. He has been very supportive of most environmental efforts on the bay.

Steele is too fundy, but he is black and well liked. Pipkin is a joke. After the beating he took in November, I am surprised he will open himself up to another massacre.

[mdguss]

12. Ehrlich got 70% in Frederick in 2002:

He'll likely do better against O'Malley, slightly worse against Duncan. You can't assume Maryland is a Democratic state. It's a traditional Democratic state that is trending Republican. Ehrlich's election was not an abberation; it was the cumulination of a growing Republican resurgence in Maryland. Sauerbrey almost won in 1994, and despite her constant whining about how 1994 was allegedly stolen from her, got 45% in 1998. The Republican base is only 5% away from what is needed to win an election. Ehrlich is probably the strongest Republican Maryland has seen in a long-time, and he'll do well next year.

There really is a disturbing cockiness among Democrats in Maryland. I think Ehrlich could well get 55+ percent next year. He could take 40% in Montgomery, 40% in Baltimore County, 70+ in the rural/exurban areas of the state, and 20% in Baltimore City and PG County.

Kendall Ehrlich, who despite that comment uttered in Frederick, is a well-spoken woman, could win if her husband was doing that well.

The election isn't about e-mails alleging dirty things about O'Malley. It's about what can be done to make the state better. So far, what I've seen out of the O'Malley camp is a willingness to play right into the Governor's hands. As long as people are talking about Steffan, they're also mentioning "O'Malley's alleged affair." You don't think that Bob Ehrlich knows this, and approves of it? I think that Steffan will land a nice, well-paying lobbying job somewhere in Washington soon. I think they knew he was leaving, and did this on purpose to get the Democrats all pissed off about rumor mongering. Instead of this junk, we could be talking about the real problems: after four years, still budget problems, still sky-rocketing college tuition, a lack of implementation of the Thorton reforms, and the selling of environmentally important lands to developers. But nobody's talking about that...which is the only way that Ehrlich will be beat.

Finally, the Steffan rumor (while completely false) is just the first of the GOP's attacks. There are more to come--some of them will actually have a basis in facts. If Democrats keep obessing about a rumor about somebody's personal life, we'll look out of touch, unprepared to lead, and incompotent. They have us exactly where they want us. Ehrlich is a 70/30 chance to win at this point.

[JaneQPublic]

5. Her campaign platform: "I still wanna shoot Britney Spears." (nt)

[mdguss]

6. She has a shot:

Don't get cocky, Frederick has 100,000 voters now. It'll take a strong candidate to defeat her--especially if Ehrlich is winning, which he very well may.

We need to nominate Duncan for Governor. Have a strong choice for Lt. Gov. and Senate. Then, and only then, will we have a chance of beating Bobby and Kendall.

[Zuni]

8. Frederick is not all red

and the overwhelming blue areas near DC and Baltimore and Annapolis willcancel any Frederick votes.

[nickshepDEM]

11. I have a bad feeling about her running.

Espeically if Bob Ehrlich is doing well throughout the campaign and somehow wins. She could ride right in to the U.S. Senate on her hubby's coattails.

[mdguss]

13. At this point, Bobby is a heavy favorite:

The Democrats have been playing into his hands. See post above. Kendall would have a chance if she runs...Mike Steele is their strongest candidate, but I'm not sure that he wants to leave the ticket with the Governor. If he does, he might win. Depending on the tactics the Democratic Party uses against him, I might vote for him. What our party did to him in 2002 was dispicable.

[nickshepDEM]

14. Wouldnt say Bobby is the "heavy" favorite.

He's about even in the polls with both possible Democratic candidates and I can only see his numbers going down from now untill election day. His apporval ratings are just OK at 55%. KKT did absoulutley horrible in the BIG 3 and still pulled 48% of the vote. If the Democratic candidate actually run's an average to good campaign and places an African American in the Lt. Gov slot we should be able to pull this thing off. Plus, if Mfume is the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate the Democratic ticket for Governor will benefit from a record number African American voter turnout. Im not saying we should get cocky and assume we have both races locked up. I think we should stay hungry and get involved early. If we go at this thing 100% I see no reason why we shouldnt be able to unseat Ehrlich and keep the Senate seat.

[DaveinMD]

15. you are very wrong

polls show O'Mallyer ahead or even. Ehrlich is in huge trouble. He won't get anywhere near 55 percent. He'll be hard pressed to get the 52 he got last time. You are so focused on Frederick. Well we didn't do well in Frederick, but Kerry still won 57 percent in the state. Frederick is dwarfed by the big three and Dems just need to perform slightly better outside of the big three. No Republican will get 40 percent in Montgomery.

[mdguss]

16. Bump Bush's total up 15% votes in rural areas:

And see how close it really is. Turn-out will be lower in Democratic areas in the mid-term election.

The Democratic Party is making the mistake of thinking it can't happen again. It can, and it probably will. Ehrlich is well-liked in the rural areas. He is their man. He's well liked Montgomery and Baltimore Counties too. The people want slots, and Ehrlich will blame Democrats for the fact they aren't there. After he blames us for slots, he blame us for everything that is wrong with the state--and if we keep assuming everybody hates him (they don't--a lot of people actually love the guy)--the charges will stick.

Ehrlich is by far the strongest candidate the Republicans have had since Spirro Agnew and Mac Mathias. He may be conservative, but he comes across as a moderate. Connie Morella got 52% in Montgomery County as recently as 2000. A so-called moderate Republican can do well there. Ehrlich's performance there (39%) the last time is pretty much what got him elected--and that is when he was running against a person (Townsend) who had roots in that county. He'll do better there against a Mayor of Baltimore.

The Governor is popular. His approval rating is 55%. Are those polls using the term "Republican Bob Ehrlich," and "Democrat Mayor O'Malley." If they are, their bad news: Maryland is what a +5 Democratic state, and O'Malley is even? People don't really know who he is outside of Baltimore. Polls this far out don't mean anything.

My point is it isn't just Frederick, it's Washington, Allegheny, Carrol, Harford, Anne Arundel, Hereford, and the eastern shore. They're all Republican. Frederick is leading the way. Add those up together, and you get Ehrlich's margin for victory. Ehrlich getting 80 percent in one of those counties is not out of the question. Add up what 70-75% of the vote in those counties would be, add in 40-45% in Montgomery County, and mid-20's to low 30's in PG=Ehrlich getting close to 60% statewide.

Bush never had approval ratings above 52% in the year before the election. Ehrlich will be between 55% to 60%. To beat that, you have to have some sort of vision/reason why you should replace a person that is doing a (according to the public) good job. The "I'm a Democrat and so are you," line isn't going to work. So far, that's the road the party's been taking...it'll make for a long-election night.

Side note (the only way Ehrlich will get more than 58% is if they can figure out a way to put a same-sex marriage ban on the ballot...if that happens, increase the turn-out in rural areas 30% with every new voter voting for Ehrlich).

[nickshepDEM]

17. Your doing an AWFUL LOT of assumming in that post...

"Assume he gets 50% here and 80% here... And oh yeah, a same sex-marriage ban on the ballot gets him an added 30% in rural areas..."

I can say the exact opposite of everything you just said and turn it into a 65% victory for the Democratic candidate.

Voter turn-out may be lower in the mid-terms, but not much considering we will actually have a real Senate race for the first time in 15 or so years.

Id like to know how you figure Ehrlich is well-liked in Montgomery county? By the way, if Duncan is the Democratic candidate Ehrlich will be lucky to pull 30% from Montgomery county.

Plus, with a well qualified African American in the Lt. Gov. slot, Ehrlich and Steele can kiss that nice little 18% of the African Americn vote they pulled back in 2002, GOODBYE.

[DaveinMD]

18. I am going to send you the results

from the presidential election. The Democratic candidate for Governor needs to do significantly worse and I don't think he will.

I am a political professional and I can tell you that Kathleen Kennedy ran the worst campaign I have ever seen for any office. That won't happen this time. This is why the Dems will win regardless of whether the candidate is O'Malley or Duncan.

[DaveinMD]

19. 2004 Election results

http://www.elections.state.md.us/SBE_Election/pages/president.html

The linked chart will show us that Kerry's margin of victory was higher in each of Montgomery, PG and Baltimore City than the total vote in Frederick that you seem so concerned with. Kerry also won Baltimore County, Howard County and barely won Charles County. Now againt Ehrlich, maybe we don't win Baltimore County and Howard or Charles. But we do a whole lot better than we did four years ago with either candidate. The point is that Frederick is a small county in relation to the rest of the state. O'Malley or Duncan will be sworn in on January of 2007.

[AuntiBush]

20. Read in the Sunpapers... looks like a possibility.

No. Say it isn't so but alas, I did read that she is considering the Governor seat.