Does Corzine's victory prove that NJ polls are bullshit?

[Ignacio Upton]

This has been the third time in the last five years that Democrats have been under-represented in a major election in New Jersey. NJ was briefly considered a swing state in 2000 when Al Gore was only leading by single digits in some polls, and ultimately won by 16%. In 2004 Kerry had the same problem, the polls were only slightly more accurate: he didn't win by Gore's 16%, but he still won the state by 7%, IMHO because of an anti-McGreevey backlash and because of 9/11 fearmongering. This year Corzine was sure to be doing poorly, with most polls showing him at are below 10% until October when the race tightened up and Corzine was consistently in the sigle digits. Corzine made a brief comeback two weeks ago, then fell down again last week and over the weekend. I really thought that a Forrester upset was possible judgeing by the polls. Can something be done about improving NJ polling methods in 2006 so we don't have this problem?

[boredofeducation]

1. Polls don't calculate the Democratic Machine and GOTV campaigns

Polls don't calculate the heavy Democratic Urban areas, the Machines, and the GOTV Campaigns that drive the Democratic vote. Forrester really didn't have a chance, many of us knew that. He has become the Republicans' designated loser! This is the 2nd statewide election this guy has lost! I think his last minute mud sling fest is what hurt him, northeasterners hate them! We do, we are not that stupid to listen to them. They might work down in the South.

[Reverend_Smitty]

2. yeah his last ditch effort

bringing Corzine's ex into the campaign to smear him was really bad form. I honestly don't know a single person who has been swayed by negative advertising...most people I know just turn the channel or put those commercials on mute. Both sides were pretty bad this year with that crap, I wonder what actual research shows about negative ads on public opinion

[DaveinMD]

3. Look at the 2004 elections

Negative campaigning worked quite well against Kerry.

[Ignacio Upton]

4. But Kerry did poorly in New Jersey because of other factors

McGreevey brought the Democrats down that year because he just resigned due to his gay relationship with a guy he appointed to the state's Homeland Security Department, and he refused to resign until after Election Day which pissed off a lot of voters. Also, 9/11 was a factor, as Bush managed to sucessfully scare a lot of voters into think that if they support Kerry there would be attacks.

[DaveinMD]

5. I wasn't really talking about Jersey

I'm just saying that negative ads are effective, especially if you don't answer the charges forcefully.

[rocktivity]

6. McGreevey's staying on until after Election Day stopped the Repubs

from making a run at the governor's seat. Not only was I delighted that he did so, I thought it was the least he could do for the party under the circumstances.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Jersey Ginny]

7. Grassroots did a great job

Essex county grassroots was VERY active getting out the vote and it made a difference. I believe that happened around the state. I felt part of a very strong effort!