Rasmussenreports claims that Kean is ahead of Menendez by...

[AX10]

7 points. 43%-36%. How can this be so?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[mcscajun]

1. The only thing I can attribute it to is name recognition.

Menendez was only known to the district he represented until he became our US Senator this year.

And he is running against a well-connected, heavily funded Republican who's the son of a former Governor and has instant name recognition: Thomas Kean, Jr.

[AX10]

2. Do you see Menendez as winning come November?

Will Corzine's troubles affect this race or the congressional races?

[mcscajun]

3. I wish I had a crystal ball for that. Much depends on the independent

voters. If I had to bet, I'd bet on a squeaker in favor of Menendez. :)

All I know is Menendez needs a minimum of $20 million dollars to conduct his campaign, and still Thomas Kean, Jr. will be able to outspend him.

I don't see Corzine's "troubles" impacting any other races, quite frankly. But that's just me.

[AX10]

4. Some people see Corzine's problems as hurting Menendez.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2642453

[I_Make_Mistakes]

5. I live in NJ and even though Keane has name recognition the

Bush republican back lash is really abounding in my area. I would be hard pressed to find a Bush supporter.

I was not politically active before 2000, so, I expect these non involved voters will, as I did in the past, vote against the party (nat'l), if they vote!

[AX10]

6. Thank You for the response.

Bush has a 29% approval rating in NJ. I just want to be sure that Kean doesn't get some back door into the Senate.

[karynnj]

15. I'm seeing the same in the part of uburban NJ I am in too

I assume that Menendez will emphasize that even if Kean is moderate, he will increase the Republican majority. Remember in 2002, Torechelli was leading even as many Democrats were horrified that they might have to vote for him.

[FogerRox]

7. ""How can this be so?"" EASY ONE... HERE YA GO

top of the page http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ has BUSH with a 41% approval.

While most polls have BUSH at 29% to 33%. It seems MR. Rasmussen is 10 points too high on Bush. COuld it be he is 10 points off on Kean?

I would suggest instead of 43% to 36% its really: Menendez 41% to Kean 33%, or your own 10% adjustment.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

8. How can Bush have a 29% approval in NJ? I refuse to believe

that we have that many kool-aid drinkers.

[FogerRox]

9. Are you asking about rassmussen's polling?

Its biased to the right. IIRC Quinnipiac had Corzine up by 12%, which is about what he won by.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

11. Thanks, I was just thinking out loud. We have our kool aid

drinkers, but that 29% seemed really high. Thanks again, and sorry for making you reply.

The thing that I hate is the media always fabricating the closeness of the race, they did it with Kerry, Corzine and perhaps more. I guess it's because I don't know what the purpose is, to bring out the Dem vote, ripen us for a Republican win, drive up the ad buys etc.. My guess would be the latter, but I really am not sure!

[karynnj]

16. The Eagleton poll had Corzine up 12%

Quinnipiac showed it very close. They also showed Kerry and Bush close, when other polls showed Kerry comfortably ahead.

[FogerRox]

17. thank you, karynnj, I stand corrected

[skipos]

10. May 26 Ras: Kean 40%, Menendez 37%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/NewJerseySenateMay.htm

[FogerRox]

12. And Bushs 29% ... I think is inflated

7% for religious right
7% for Neo COns
4% for COns who still cling to Bush= 21%

Repubs have left the house.... I think Bush has lost nearly half his base of about 35%.
W.F Buckley has split off from the Bush Base, 1/2 the regular COns have left with Buckley.

Corzine won by what.... 11 or 12%, and that is what Menendez should win by. Or more.

[ramapodem]

13. I am not as confident....

NJ voters are stupid.... enough still think jr is his dad. Menendez gets off his ass soon and starts campaigning.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

14. Please, NJ has a very high educational rate, so please don't

call our residents stupid. I have been at the Drs. office a lot recently, he is a very caring and very thorough Dr. so waiting room time is between 1 - 1 1/2 hrs., man, the anger is just pouring out. I cannot believe how politically vocal this area is becoming!

I even live close to a mega church and they are in hiding, they use to come out in groves, trying to convert us liberal Christians, not anymore.

Those Bush/Chaney stickers, fishes etc., have disappeared.

It is an inconvenient truth that, the last Presidential and Gubernatorial campaigns were tight (only in the medias mind, IMHO, only to bolster ad revenue), both Kerry and Corzine carried this state 10 +, and that was before Bush, pissed off all those Rw'ers and moderates.

[ramapodem]

18. I may have been a lil overzealous

when i called nj voters stupid, but the bottom line is this race will be a lot closer then usual. Also over the last 2 elections for this seat it been decided by 3 pts each time. I just knock on wood hoping Menendez can pull this off.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

19. I googled for results on 6/6/6 and the numbers that I saw were

pretty much 2/3 dem and 1/3 rep turnout for the primary. Did those #'s hold and should we be thinking the same for Nov.?

[Reverend_Smitty]

20. Thats a good sign...

I noticed in your profile that you are from Sewell...I did an internship over at Washington Twp HS, and I noticed that it was a pretty affluent area and usually that means pretty Republican...so anytime you see those people turning around thats a good thing. I think it will be a tight election but I think Menendez will win in the fall.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

21. I live right across the street from the Washington Twp. HS.

Actually, it is strange. This area was best deal going 20 yrs. ago, one could buy a 4 bdrm, 2 1/2 bath, 2 car garage house on a decent lot for $114,000. This is a dinc area, at least it has been, and to my knowledge pretty much democratic.

It is a fairly desirable location now, so, now we have had an uptick in republicans, but, I still think it is more democratic.

How did you like your internship? The kids at the HS are pretty spoiled, they expect a new car when they get their drivers licenses, but, remember, those big houses, were really cheap, so the p's have the disposable income.

Edit to add :
It is a fairly desirable location now, lots of Mc Mansions (on really small lots) built recently. so, now we have had an uptick in republicans, but, I still think it is more democratic.

Believe it or not my ex-neighbors still bought a fairly large house on the other side of the pike in the TWP, for $279,000., with a nice lot. It is still possible to purchase affordable housing, especially now, that the markets cooled!

[Reverend_Smitty]

22. I liked it...

the kids I worked with were for the most part really nice and didn't give me any trouble. I worked with athletics so I was very impressed by their facilities. The area actually reminds me of what's going on in my town (Hamilton). 20 years ago it was mostly farmland and cheap housing but white-flight out of Trenton has led to a boom in real estate (a ton of the Mc Mansions that people drop 600K for and the long term mortgages will eventually bleed them dry). In fact the townhouse I moved into back in 98 only cost 105,000...now I see listings for neighboring properties going for 300,000!

I'm not entirely sure what the influx of people is doing to the community politically. We had a Republican mayor for 20 years and he got involved in a scandal and decided not to run again...right now we have a Dem mayor and until last fall an entirely Dem town council (3 Dem incumbents lost in November) so it will be interesting to watch the voting trends in the up coming years. I think the section that borders Trenton will stay solidly Democratic but as the population increases in the deeper suburbs I'm afraid we will be getting more Republicans.

[I_Make_Mistakes]

23. Same situation, to a tee. Now has your area started the trend of

the longer time residents moving out to the new good deal area? Ours is now moving to Harrison Twp.

Oh, and if hasn't happened yet, you will be building schools (elem. first, then middle then HS). There are over 3,000 kids in our HS today, my HS (3 schools combined when I was in MS) to have a whooping 700 students. I think that 3,000 is just to large to truly provide direction to all these developing young adults, it's just to easy to get lost in the crowd!

[Reverend_Smitty]

24. The township directly bordering Hamilton is actually called Washington Twp

as well and another one called Robbinsville. I would say they are the new "hot" places to live. They just built a new high school there (it opened up a year or two ago) before it was built the kids didn't go to the Hamilton district (more specifically my school, which was considered the best of the township schools) they went to Lawrence HS (which is an ok school but is quite far away). I'd say since they built that school or at least announced the construction, building of new houses has exploded. I don't think there is much open space left in either one of those places. It's getting really bad because the roads around here aren't made for the traffic that all the new housing is generating.

I know the amount of kids at Township is maddening. My school had about 1,500 and I thought that was too big. I worked with the athletic trainer when I was there...she had an assistant, 2 college students (myself and my partner) and scores of high school helpers and still every day was crazy in there...it was almost impossible to remember all the names of the kids I came across. It's funny but I got the feeling that I probably got more personal attention from my professors (I went to Rowan) than some of these kids got from their teachers, and that's not necessarily a good thing