New CNN Ohio Poll: Kerry up by TEN POINTS among registered voters!

[VolcanoJen]

:toast: :bounce: :bounce: :toast: :toast: :bounce: :bounce: :toast:

Latest CNN/USAToday/Gallup Poll, released minutes ago; I truly thought Wolf Blitzer was going to vomit all over himself while helping Paula Zahn to reveal the results:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/08/18/ohio/index.html

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among registered voters, MOE +/-4%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 52%
Bush: 42%
Undecided: 6%

Among likely voters, it's considerably closer:

CNN/USAToday/Gallup, among likely voters, MOE +/-5%, Aug 13-15

Kerry: 48%
Bush: 46%
Undecided 6%

---

Buckeyes, we've made extraordinary strides in the last few months, and our hard work is really starting to reflect in the polls. Don't get too confident, but let's keep our heads up, and keep registering NEW VOTERS, who are not polled. And keep on top of your voting-weary friends, who are certainly not considered "likely voters" by the pollsters.

Let's give Rove onehelluva shock come Election Night!!

:toast: :bounce: :bounce: :toast: :toast: :bounce: :bounce: :toast:

[wryter2000]

1. Awesome!

Ohio :yourock:

[meti57b]

2. excellent news!!

[Cha]

3. Well, thank you!

:bounce: And this being cnn ..it may even be more! :bounce:

:toast:

[displacedtexan]

4. Great News, but...

something tells me that Bush* will fight to the death for Ohio this year!

I'm confident, though, that JK will fight to the pain.*







* from The Princess Bride

[troublemaker]

5. Once again, turn-out is EVERYTHING

The likely voters are mostly people who voted last time (2000) in an average turn-out election. High turn-out = Kerry blow-out

[shockingelk]

9. and Kerry has the advantage because of the ABB phenomena

Almost all the people who virulently dislike Kerry already vote.

A lot of people who wouldn't normally vote are going to turn out to vote against Bush.

Think about it: how much to you hear about people who will be voting the first time being motivate to vote against Kerry or for Bush ... compare to the number of people who are excited to vote against Bush. I wish it were "for Kerry", but I'll take it.

[Ducks In A Row]

6. any thoughts on the lastest moveon ad helping change minds

it was strong and honest. people respond to that.

[Leilani]

7. Poll was done for Paula Zahn Special tonite

She is having a town hall meeting in Ohio...

[Kukesa]

11. Yes, in Canton, Ohio.

That's a predominantly blue-collar area of our state and is suffering from job losses (just like the rest of us). Good, hard-working people -- the salt of the earth, if I may -- who find themselves with bills to pay and no employment.

I don't get it -- didn't Shrub create TONS of new jobs?

:shrug:

[calico1]

8. That's great. But can someone explain to me

what is considered a better gauge: "registered" voters or "likely" voters?

[VolcanoJen]

10. Usually, "Likely Voters" is the sample considered more reliable.

However, it's an unusual year, and starting with the Democratic Primaries, throwing Conventional Wisdom to the wind has been a smart move. :-)

I'm no pollster, but I believe that the largest sample is Registered Voters, and among the Registered Voters polled, the sample is broken down with a weighted question as to "how likely one is to vote in the 2004 Presidential Election."

Thing is... we've registered so many new voters, and energized unlikely voters, that I'm not sure we can count on the two split samples this year.

At any rate... this poll spells bad news for the incumbent.

:-)

[NWHarkness]

12. Gallup doesn't have a clue who the likely voters are

[VolcanoJen]

13. I agree wholeheartedly.

And I'd love to get the inner scoop on how a registered voter falls into the "likely voter" category...

[Kukesa]

14. This, from Dem HQ in Dayton.

Here's a message I received from one of our National Campaign staff when I asked the question about "likely voters:"


"It's pretty simple. A registered voter is anyone over age 18 and who is a citizen of the United States who has registered to vote at the Board of Elections. A likely voter is a person who has a strong voter history. Someone who voted in the general, primary, special, and off-year elections. Kerry is ahead in polls that have registered voters but the gap narrows when it comes to likely voters because typically Democrats don't come out as often as Republicans do. (because they have to work, etc.)

That is why it's important to engage yourself in voter contact by making phone calls and walking your precinct. The way we narrow the gap, or also called the margin of victory, is a three prong attack: 1.) Get more of your regular base supporters out to vote this time (those who said it doesn't matter if I vote this time) 2.) Persuade those who voted for Bush, Nader, independents or those who didn't vote to vote for Kerry. 3.)Get those who are new registered voters to get out and vote for our candidate. AND THATS EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE GOING TO DO AND THAT'S EXACTLY HOW WE ARE GOING TO WIN!!!!!!"

So, let's keep our fingers crossed and hope those "registered" voters are on our side.

Now, back to work -- I'm making phone calls for Kerry; still peddling those yard signs!

[WLKjr]

15. Ohio and Kerry/Edwards=MAJOR LANDSLIDE

I can feel it, I heard someone today say that "George hasn't done shit for us in Ohio!"

[Kukesa]

16. Hope is on the way!! n/t