Will the questions that are now headed to the General Election ballot hurt

[The Lone Liberal]

Including such things as:

Constitutional Amendment on Marriage
Gasoline Tax
And the possibility of Casino Gaming being included.

I am worried that we can not hold the statehouse or send Carson to the Senate? These questions may bring out the rabid republicans like nothing else. How does everyone feel about the expanded ballot in the General?

[Catch22Dem]

1. Hard to say

Most of my repuke co-workers are for the lottery.

I think Carson actually stands a chance. Not a great one, but a chance.

[The Lone Liberal]

2. I didn't want to say so, but I have that feeling also.

Something in the air...or I am having mental breakdown.

[Route66Kid]

3. As a rule.....

.....state questions that make in onto the November general election ballot tend not to fair well. Unless it is an issue that receives a lot of media ad time in favor of it (which requires a lot of $$$), most state questions get shot down in Oklahoma voter referendums.

I remember one question on the 1984 ballot proposing a repeal of the Civil War widow's pension from the Oklahoma Statutes..........did not pass!

I doubt any proposal to increase the gasoline tax in Oklahoma, regardless of what its revenue would benefit, would pass in a referendum.

There are enough Jesus Republican/conservative/heterosexual church goers in Oklahoma who would buy into a proposed Constitutional ammendment on defining marriage as a union between a man and woman and outlawing same sex marriages to sustain passage in a voter referendum.

The casino thing can go either way, although with the history of perimutual betting on horse racing not panning out in terms of revenue for education it may have an uphill fight.

The current and recent problems dogging prominent democrats (like the Wes Watkins, Carroll Fisher and Gene Stipe messes) haven't helped win any hearts and minds.

All that said, the campaign season has not yet begun in earnest. The national election will be a referendum on George W. Bush, so with so many disaffected and disenchanted voters who may have had their job outsourced, spouses and/or children or even themselves called up and sent to Iraq with their reserve unit to deal with a mess with no end in sight, and who as native Okies are paying close to $2.00 for a gallon of gasoline (we Okies feel like we're getting scalped if we pay over 90 cents a gallon!), state democrats may get a big coattail to ride on, this state being solidly republican for the last twenty years notwithstanding!

[yelladawg]

4. The gay marriage question

The gay marriage question will be on the November ballot.

[RoyGBiv]

5. Yes and no

I think the referendums are going to bring out the most conservative elements in Oklahoma to vote in an election that would otherwise not be of much interest. There's not a big push for Bush here because the state is so solidly Republican in the Presidential column, so there's not a great deal of motivation for those who don't always get out and vote. But, the "moral questions" will have them filling the church buses for trips to the polls.

However, I'm unclear how this will affect the Senate race. Carson is playing to the right-center very well, which will attract a lot of the "Democrats who vote Republican" in national races. Since a lot of those people are the same ones who will vote for a lottery and since the lottery question will pull a lot of other Democrats to the polls who might not otherwise bother to vote at all, the lottery issue might actually help.

Of course it's all still a toss-up at this point. Some of it will depend on whether Humphreys or Coburn gets the Republican nomination. In the early poll in January, Carson fared better against Coburn than Humphreys, but I don't buy that. Humphreys has some severe liabilities, especially in Oklahoma county. He left the mayor seat with a lot of people pissed at him, and if Carson can attract those voters, he'll do well regardless of the referendums.

[yelladawg]

6. In the most recent polls

In the Tulsa World, the polls had Coburn beating Carson by 2 points. This after Carson has raised $1,500,000 and only two weeks after Coburn announced he was running.
Coburn will win. But it doesn't matter, Carson will vote repug more than Coburn.

[RoyGBiv]

7. Meaningless Poll

That poll is all but meaningless. I won't get into my thoughts on Consumer Logic polls, but the undecided column is huge, a full 25%, depending on whether declared independents were figured into the mix, which increases undecided voters to 28%.

That aside, the notion that Carson will vote with the Republicans more than Coburn is both strange and somewhat beside the point. You seem not to understand the importance of attempts to gain a Democratic majority in the Senate. As I've said before, with an essentially divided Senate, the leadership means more than the raw prospective votes on individual issues.

[yelladawg]

8. If it is so meaningless

If it is so meaningless why was Carson handing out copies of the same poll taken 2 months earlier showing him with an 11 point lead over Kirk the Jerk?

[RoyGBiv]

9. Advertising for fund raising

They say "I'm electable...I have a chance..."

That's the only things these polls are good for.

They're still meaningless when it comes to determining who will win in November.

[The Lone Liberal]

10. That is my thoughts

Oklahoma City politicians do not play well in the N.E. and Humphreys has some real baggage over Bricktown and that white elephant sports arena.