South Texas Chisme has some election predictions (run off for governor)

[Czolgosz]

I suspect that they are off base on most of the local elections (they're rooting for some long-shot underdogs), but I hope they are right about the governor's race, where they predict a run off:

Governor
46% - Chris Bell
49% - Bob Gammage
5% - Rashad Jafer

<http://stxc.blogspot.com/>.

Doesn't a run off make Kinky's and 4n3p's petition drive about twice as hard?

Regarding a possible gubernatorial run off, what does everyone think about the (a) likelihood and (b) probable effect?

[sonias]

1. They predict a runoff in the Lt Governor's race too

Lieutenant Governor
32% - Benjamin Z. Grant
28% -Adrian De Leon
40% - Maria Luisa Alvarado

Interesting.

They have my guy Hank Gilbert winning in a landslide.

Sonia

[Czolgosz]

2. I also hope Hank does that well. I suspect that South Texas Chisme's

predictions will be a very accurate prediction of how the vote will come down in Robstown (a great little Democratic enclave to the west of Corpus Christi), but I don't think that the vote will break along these lines in Corpus Christi or in Texas.

A run off in any statewide race other than the governor race does not affect the time period during which independent candidates for the governor race can gather signatures, right?

Here are my counter predictions:

Governor (I hope STC is right so I'll adopt their prediction)
46% - Chris Bell
49% - Bob Gammage
5% - Rashad Jafer

Lieutenant Governor
45% - Benjamin Z. Grant
25% -Adrian De Leon
30% - Maria Luisa Alvarado

Agriculture Commissioner
55% - Hank Gilbert
45% - Koecadee Melton, Jr.

Judge, 94th District Court
55% - Bobby Galvan
45% - Angelica Hernandez

Judge, 148th District Court
45% - Fred Jimenez
55% - Marisela Saldaña

Nueces County Sheriff
40% - Pete Alvarez
10% - Joe 'J.B.' Ballesteros
15% - Mark Cantu
10% - Robert 'Bobby' Longoria
25% - Jimmy Rodriguez

Nueces County Commissioner - Precinct 2
50% - Betty Jean Longoria
50% - Isabel Noyola-Martin

Judge, Nueces County Court At Law No. 3 (I think STC is right on the $)
24% - Hector De Pena, Jr.
22% -Joe Flores
22% - John Martinez
29% - Mark Skurka
4% - Michele Villarreal-Kuchta

Judge, Nueces County Court At Law No. 4
35% - Hector Rene Gonzalez
10% - Luis Octavio Gutierrez
55% - James "Jim" Klager

Nueces County Democratic Chair
15% - Alex Garcia, Jr.
35% - John M. Kelley
20% - Joel Mumphord
30% - Jerry J. Trevino

[meg]

6. I Like Angelica

I don't see Jerry Trevino doing so well and I don't see Noyola-Martin tying Longoria.

Guess we will all know tomorrow.

[Czolgosz]

7. You may be right about Jerry. I really like both John and Jerry, and I get

the impression that they are campaigning the hardest (I rarely see Alex campaigning). I was thinking that John and Joel maybe taking votes from one another and perhaps that dynamic would give Jerry a boost into the run off, but you are probably right about Jerry. Like you say, we'll see tomorrow.

You're probably also right about Noyola-Martin versus Longoria race. I'm just seeing Longoria taking it on the chin over the Kingsville pharmacy vote -- I think the election was totally Longoria's to lose until that vote, and now I put the race at 50/50 because I cannot tell if EVERYONE is pissed at Longoria over the pharmacy vote or it it's just everyone I know.

Finally, my objections to Angelica are mainly related to her being a lawyer for only the minimal number of years allowed plus some inside information that I'd prefer if it stayed inside until after the vote. If you are curious, I'll PM you, but I'd rather not go into it in a public forum watched by local Republicans (there has been enough public lashing of our candidates already).

[Czolgosz]

12. You were totally right about Longoria vs. Noyola-Martin. Noyola-Martin

freaked out at a polling place and the election judge had to call the police to have her escorted away -- we dodged a bullet in that race (can you imagine if we'd elected such a crazy person?).

[NoPasaran]

3. Likelihood? I'll go with zero

Five percent for someone with no money, no name recognition and no campaign to speak of? Sorry, I don't buy it.

[Czolgosz]

4. I suspect that you are right.

but I suspect the Gammage-Bell vote totals will be close so Jafer might not need too many votes to throw this into a run off. Maybe that's just wishful thinking.

[sonias]

5. I forgot to comment on the ballot access part

Yes, a runoff will royally screw both Carole 4Names and Stinky Kinky. The rules are the rules. They have 60 days after a decisive win in the primary, or until May 11 to submit their petitions. A runoff cuts their collection time in half, because they can't start collecting signatures until a winner in the runoff has been determined. So if Rashad Jafer creates a runoff, Carole 4Names will be one pissed grandma. Kinky will just get drunk.

http://www.dfw.com/mld/startelegram/news/state/13838669.htm
Posted on Fri, Feb. 10, 2006
Petitions may take 2 months to OK

AUSTIN -- Once independent gubernatorial candidates Carole Keeton Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman submit their petitions to get on the November ballot, it could take up to two months to verify the signatures, state election officials said Thursday.

The independent candidates have until May 11 to collect 45,540 signatures each from registered voters. But the Secretary of State's Office will probably take until July to verify that they are all legitimate.

(snip)
The two candidates cannot start collecting signatures until after the primary, or after the primary runoff a month later if there is one in the governor's race.(/snip)

Sonia

[merci_me]

8. Any runoff could throw a monkey wrench into it.

Even if it isn't the governor's race, people may be signing petitions in March and then get interested in one of the other runoffs and decide they want to have a say in a runoff in DeLay's CD22 or the Senate District 7 race with which ever two, Patrick/Nixon/Hamric/Ellis, or CD10's crowded Democratic primary or State Rep 146 with Edwards/Bennet/Miles.

Statewide, it could lead Kinky and Carol 4names/3parties to think they have a lot more valid signatures than they do, if people sign and then vote in the runoff.

[Czolgosz]

9. South Texican has its predictions up:

United States Senator - Barbara Radnofsky

United State Representative, District 28 - Henry Cuellar

Governor - Bob Gammage

Lieutenant Governor - Benjamin Z. Grant

Commissioner of Agriculture - Hank Gilbert

Texas State House Dist 38 - Eddie Lucio, III

Texas House Dist 42 - Richard Raymond

Texas House Dist 43 - Juan Manuel Escobar

Justice 13th Court of Appeals, Pl 4 - Nelda Vidaurri Rodriguez

Justice 13th Court of Appeals, Pl 5 - Gina Benavides

District Judge, 92nd - Ricardo Rodriguez, Jr.

District Attorney - Rene Guerra

County Judge - Ramon Garcia

Judge, County Court #1 - Rudy Gonzalez

Judge, County Court #6 - Fidencio Guerra, Jr.

District Clerk - Laura Hinojosa

County Clerk - Arturo Guajardo, Jr.

County Commissioner Pct 2 - Tito Palacios

County Commissioner Pct 4 - Oscar Garza

Hidalgo Co. JP Pct 1, Pl 2 - Jesse Morales

Hidalgo Co. JP Pct 2, Pl 2 - Rosa Trevino

<http://southtexican.blogspot.com/>

[sonias]

10. Damn, I do not want to see Cuellar re-elected

They predict Victor Morales will cause a runoff and that Henry Cuellar wins. I say with more time Cuellar starts to smell even more.

Here's wishing that Ciro pulls off at least a 50% + 1 vote win. Of course the recount lawsuits will immediately follow.

Go check out Representative Aaron Pena's blog with pictures too!

http://acapitolblog.blogspot.com/2006/03/will-voter-outreach-include-dead-in.html
Will Voter Outreach Include The Dead In Congressional Race?
The question remains, in a tightly fought race will the dead be the difference in the election? I know that the Secretary of State and the Department of Justice have been called in but maybe someone should place armed guards at local cemeteries to make sure those pesky dead voters don't mess in the election.

The real solution is for living voters to get off their duffs and vote in such numbers that we neutralize the dead. I hate to be a partisan, but I do think the living should have the greater voice in this election.

Sonia

[Czolgosz]

11. Me too. I think South Texican has called them about right EXCEPT for

Cuellar. I think it goes to a run off and Ciro gets nearly all of Victor's vote, plus the dead-fish stink surrounding Cuellar will only get worse as time goes on. Maybe that's wishful thinking, but that's my story and I'm sticking with it.

I especially think South Texican is right about the Thirteenth Court of Appeals races which South Texas Chisme is wisely quiet about.