2010: Cook Calls Guv Race a Toss-Up

[sonias]

Texas Tribune 3/4/10
2010: Cook Calls Guv Race a Toss-Up

The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan online political soothsaying publication, just declared the Texas gubernatorial race a toss-up. Previously it had been in the "Lean Republican" category.

Despite Gov. Rick Perry's decisive victory in the Republican primary and the GOP dominance in the state, Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy points to signs of Perry fatigue. She argues that Democratic nominee Bill White's history as a businessman and moderate, as well as solid fundraising stats, will help protect him from getting called a "screaming liberal Democrat." They also predict that Democratic lite guv candidate Linda Chavez-Thompson will help turn out the Hispanic vote — presumably a boon for White.

(snip)
White is probably the strongest gubernatorial candidate Democrats have nominated since Ann Richards was the party’s standard bearer in 1990. He is a proven fundraiser, starts the race with a solid base of support, and boasts a resume in business and a record as mayor that will make it hard for Republicans to label him as a screaming liberal Democrat. It helps that Democrats nominated a Hispanic woman for Lieutenant Governor, which is likely to spike Hispanic turn out in November, something that will benefit White. Finally, there are some signs of Perry fatigue, which could hurt the Governor at a time when the electorate is restless.

Perry is known for running well funded, aggressive, no-holds-barred campaigns and this will be no exception. However, this also might end up being the most difficult race of his career. As a result, we are moving the contest from the Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.

Keep hope alive and keep Perry's ugly record front and center.

:kick:

[onestepforward]

1. Excellent!

We have a real shot at this! :patriot:

[sonias]

2. Yes we do

White doesn't have to go soft on Perry. He can attack him straight on!

:kick:

[sonias]

3. White says Texas debt has doubled under Perry

PoltiFact Check 3/4/10
White says Texas debt has doubled under Perry

(snip)
Celebrating separately Tuesday night, both candidates rallied their respective supporters.

For Perry, that meant warning Washington to "stop messing with Texas," a tenet of his primary campaign. White, meanwhile, started to niggle his new opponent — suggesting Perry and his consultants point to national debt to distract voters from Texas' record.

"Debt has almost doubled in Austin under Gov. Perry," White said. "They think you will not notice this!"

Game on.

Is White right?

(snip)
It's clear the amount of state debt has more than doubled since Perry became governor.

We rate White's statement as True.

:dem:

[sonias]

4. Perry leads White by 6 points in first poll for November

Fort Worth Star Telegram 3/4/10
Perry leads White by 6 points in first poll of November gubernatorial race

The first poll of the November general-election race between Rick Perry and Bill White shows the Republican governor with a 6-point lead over his Democratic challenger, supporting predictions that the Texas gubernatorial battle will be one of the most competitive in years.

Perry led White 49 to 43 percent in the latest Ramussen Reports survey of likely Texas voters. Three percent of respondents prefer some other candidate, and 6 percent are undecided.

(snip)
The Republican and Democratic governors' associations are also weighing in, underscoring the race's national importance. The Democratic Governors Association contributed heavily to White's campaign during the primary and plans to give more.

"There is no question in my mind that we'll be investing more in the state," Executive Director Nathan Daschle told the Star-Telegram. "We consider this one of our top pickup opportunities."

:kick:

[montieg]

5. "...signs of Perry fatigue." ?????

Oh, Man! The understatement of the millennium!

[sonias]

6. 2010: More of DC Rates Perry as Vulnerable

http://www.texastribune.org/blogs/post/2010/mar/08/2010-more-dc-rates-perry-vulnerable/">Texas Tribune 3/8/10
2010: More of DC Rates Perry as Vulnerable
(snip)
Last week The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter in DC, moved the Texas governor's race from "Clear Advantage" Perry to "Narrow Advantage." That's not as vulnerable as the "Toss Up" category, but it's close. "Former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) will have to run a perfect campaign to overcome Democrats' statewide troubles, but he starts the general election with an opportunity to do so," says the post.

Congressional Quarterly concurs.

:kick:ing Perry's ass first thing Monday morning. :evilgrin:

[sonias]

7. Perry is vulnerable, but White has work to do

San Antonio Express News 3/7/10
Perry is vulnerable, but White has work to do
(snip)
Former Houston Mayor Bill White's chance to oust Perry depends on several factors: Can he persuade Republican moderates who are angry with Perry for vilifying Hutchison to cross over? Can White make the case that Perry, a 10-year incumbent, needs to be replaced and that White, a moderate Democrat, is the one to replace him? Can White raise enough money to compete against Perry?

And, finally, a single statistic: 39 percent.

A 39 percent plurality is how Perry won in 2006 against Democrat Chris Bell, Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn, who was a strong independent, and Kinky Friedman, an effective spoiler.

The fact that 50 percent of Texans did not support Perry's harsh, hard-right agenda four years ago is good news for White. Perry's recent rhetoric about secession and his bragging that Texas is "recession-proof" — at a time when 1 million Texans are out of work — make him a hero to the GOP's right wing. But those aspects also make him vulnerable in a general election.

The matchup between Perry and White will not just be a choice between Gov. Good Hair, as the columnist Molly Ivins used to say about Perry, and Gov. No Hair. It also will be a battle between Perry's pressing of rural Texas values (states' rights, guns, God, the pose of aggressive unsophistication) and White's urban Texas values (brash big-city brains, pragmatism, a Texas rich in education and culture, as well as a mythic past).

[sonias]

8. Dems' rosiest outlook in years for gov seat

Houston Chronicle 3/8/10
Dems' rosiest outlook in years for gov seat
(snip)
The former Houston mayor arguably is the strongest gubernatorial candidate Democrats have nominated since Ann Richards in 1990. Not only is he a proven fund-raiser, but his business background makes it a challenge for Republicans to label him as Barack Obama's Texas twin.
(snip)
Keeping focus in state

James Henson, a political scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, agreed. "The Hutchison campaign was Exhibit A for what not to do," he said. "Do not let the Perry campaign define you early. Do not let them frame the election on their terms."

Keeping the focus on state issues could help White attract independents and Republican moderates offended by Perry's shift to the right during the primary. White has to have them if he is going to overcome the Republican numbers advantage in a red state.

The strategy was on display at White's Austin news conference the day after the primary. He said that Texas, in better shape than most during the recession, still has the highest number of unemployed in its history. He also noted that local property taxes continue to rise because of cutbacks in school finance and that the high cost of tuition at Texas colleges and universities is an ever-increasing burden. "Perry's problem is his job performance," he said.

:kick:

[sonias]

9. Cornyn says Texas only 'marginally' Republican

Dallas Morning News 3/8/10
Sen. John Cornyn says Texas only 'marginally' Republican

WASHINGTON – Sen. John Cornyn called Texas only "marginally" Republican this morning, less than a week after a primary that drew the most GOP voters in at least 30 years.

Cornyn offered that analysis of the Texas political landscape as he fielded questions about the possibility of a special election in the event Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison resigns before her full term ends in 2012.

"Texas is still a marginally red state, although that will be tested by Bill White, who is a serious contender for governor," he told reporters.

White, the former Houston mayor, won the Democratic nomination for governor in a landslide, and a Rasmussen poll taken afterward showed him trailing Gov. Rick Perry by only six percentage points.

:rofl: Corndog is already making excuses for the loss.

[sonias]

10. ABC News - 2010 Elections: Ten Races to Watch in 2010

ABC News[br />2010 Elections: Ten Races to Watch in 2010
Top Ten Political Contests to Look Out for in the 2010 Elections
(snip)

Texas Governor

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) was challenged in the March 2nd GOP primary by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) but he soundly defeated the veteran lawmaker by tying her to Washington. Perry now faces off against former Houston Mayor Bill White (D).

Democrats are hoping that Perry's primary run, in which he expressed sympathy with secessionists, will give them a chance of taking back the governor's office for the first time since future President George W. Bush knocked off Democrat Ann Richards in 1994.

Republicans, by contrast, think Perry will be able to hold onto the governor's office by portraying White as being too liberal for Texas. "Once Texans get a clear picture of Bill White's liberal record, I think they will collectively say, 'Houston, we have a problem,'" said Nick Ayers, the executive director of the Republican Governors Association, after White won his party's nomination.

Nick Ayers is playing old style politics. May not be the year that works anymore.

:kick: