Ignatieff leads four-way race

[CHIMO]

Sep. 30, 2006. 07:17 PM
CANADIAN PRESS

OTTAWA — Michael Ignatieff maintained his edge in the Liberal leadership race Saturday as grassroots members continued electing delegates to the party’s December convention.

As results trickled in from the second of three days of delegate elections across the country, the rookie Toronto MP and acclaimed scholar was about a dozen points ahead of his nearest competitor.

But Ignatieff’s share of the delegates continued to hover around 30 per cent, leaving him potentially vulnerable to being overtaken by a rival candidate during multiple rounds of balloting at the Montreal convention.

Ignatieff spokesman Bob Richardson predicted his candidate’s lead is wide enough fend off Bob Rae or Stephane Dion, the two candidates best positioned to catapult over the

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1159616113422&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154

Looks like the Martin machine is still grinding on.

[daleo]

1. I don't think Iggy has much room for growth

He might win first ballot, but I don't see others going to him.

"In unofficial results posted by the party Saturday evening, the Toronto MP had captured just over 30 per cent of the delegates chosen so far by party members during meetings held in ridings across the country.

But Bob Rae, Stéphane Dion and Gerard Kennedy were all within range to challenge Ignatieff at the convention, to be held from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3 in Montreal.

Rae had secured 20 per cent, while Dion had 19 per cent and Kennedy had 12 per cent.

The other four candidates — Scott Brison, Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe and Martha Hall Findlay — each had less than six per cent."

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/09/30/liberals.html

[CHIMO]

2. It Is

Still early. But I just checked at the Liberal site and Iggy has 32%. (Whatever that means at the moment?)

How someone can come out of nowhere and end up in first place baffles the mind.

He has an organization. The organization is from the existing system, as far as I can make out.

So although he may not be able to grow initially, he may be able to pick up at the end.

I will hold my analysis of the future for awhile.

[daleo]

3. It's a good point about the organizational power this implies

Although it is still less than one in three. It's still too early to make any solid predictions, though.

I am glad Kennedy and Dion are still solidly in the race. I thought Dryden would show better. I can't work up much enthusiasm for Raye as the Anybody But Iggy candidate.

[Canadian_moderate]

4. Given Iggy's competition...

I fully understand how someone could come from out of nowhere and lead the pack.

Bob Rae is a joke and has switched parties for political ambition. He made a meal of it as premier of Ontario from 1990-1995.

Stephane Dion is another Quebecer, from a province where people won't vote Liberal anymore, outside of parts of Montreal.

Gerard Kennedy is another Jack Layton, someone who should have stuck to municipal politics or running food banks.

[daleo]

5. Needless to say, I don't completely agree

I do agree that Rae probably won't go over well in Ontario.

Dion might re-energize the nascent federalist vote in Quebec.

Kennedy might well produce a big win in Ontario for the Liberals. There is nothing wrong with running food banks for a Liberal. Well, there shouldn't be anyway. He also has impressed many people during his time in Ontario provincial politics as being both smart and inspiring. He reminds me a bit of Clinton that way (just going by things I have read).