Labour Slumps to 3rd as Election Timetable Published

[muriel_volestrangler]

Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s ruling Labour Party fell to third place in an opinion poll for the first time since 1982 as activists received a campaign timetable pointing to a May 6 general election in the U.K.

Both Conservatives and Liberal Democrats led Labour in the Ipsos-Mori Ltd. survey finished Sept. 27 and published today. An internal document distributed at the ruling party’s annual conference sets out a day-by-day schedule for building support, suggesting a four-week election campaign beginning in April. No date has been fixed for the vote, which must be held by June.
...
The poll shows Labour supported by 24 percent of voters, compared with 25 percent for the Liberal Democrats and 36 percent for the Conservatives. Ipsos-Mori surveyed 1,003 adults. No margin of error was given.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aBGBgDnk_Q3c

Interesting about the possible date, as I hadn't heard that elsewhere.

To mark the first time since 1982 that the Lib Dems/predecessors had led Labour, I thought I'd feed those figures into the Electoral Calculus seat predictor. Result:

Con 327 seats
Lab 209
LD 82
Nat 11
'Min' 3 (meaning 'Independent', I think - no change from 2003, and include Wyre Forest, Bethnal Green, and Blaenau Gwent (I think Labour will take Bethanl Green back after Galloway, however)

Doesn't add up to the 650 total, because Northern Ireland isn't included.

That would be a Tory majority of 4; a nightmare, IMO, with them held hostage by the nuttiest Tories/Unionists from NI to get stuff through (as in the latter part of the Major government). But I wanted to point out how unfair it'd be if the Lib Dems got more votes than Labour, but under half of the seats. :banghead:

[ikri]

1. 209 seats would be a success for Labour

Similar to 2005, the main thing in Labour's favour at the moment is that people still remember the last Tory government.

Scotland could be very interesting if the Tories only had small majority. Labour have 40-odd seats there that the Tories aren't going to win any time soon and with Scottish Nationalists gaining more approval for total independence the Tory party might decide that keeping the union together is less important than gaining a much bigger majority in Parliament.

[non sociopath skin]

2. I've believed for a long time that the Tories would be more than happy ...

... with Scottish Independence and an England-and-Wales-and-Northern Ireland rump state with a permanent Tory majority.

What might be really interesting is which state the Northern Counties of England would be happiest in ....
The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. You'd have to ask Scotland if they'd take you ...

:P

[non sociopath skin]

8. They would.

:evilgrin:

Most of us up here feel a lot more at home in Glasgow or Edinburgh than we do in Surbiton or Tunbridge Wells ...

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. I'm sure many Tories wouldn't mind that

although the SNP is going to have greater difficulty stating its case for breaking the Union, considering the collapse of its beloved Celtic Tiger economic model that it hitherto based its case on.

[dipsydoodle]

10. Oh to be back

in 1136.......lol.

[T_i_B]

4. And in other news.....

The currant bun has switched back to the Tories, the natural home of hysterical right wing lunacy.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8281859.stm

Am I the only one here who thinks the Sun is the equivalent of all those people in Surrey who support Man U simply because they win?

[Hopeless Romantic]

5. I dare say that Rupert has done a deal with Dave and will be

getting the best bits of the BBC in the forthcoming breakup & sell off.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

7. Interesting that the Scottish Sun hasn't endorsed the Tories

and if they have any care for their circulation they'll avoid doing so.

[non sociopath skin]

9. Murdoch always backs the most conservative figure likely to win.

In 1997 it was Blair. In England and Wales in 2010 it will be Cameron.

In Scotland, he's dithering between Brown and Salmond.

The Skin

[LeftishBrit]

11. That sums it up!

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. And Murdoch already gets to choose Cameron's front bench team

Power without responsibility

But I thought this was the most interesting report to come out of it:

It is rumoured that The Sun had made it clear that it would not back the party as long as Dominic Grieve remained Shadow Home Secretary. The previous Sun Editor, Rebekah Wade had made that clear after an unhappy dinner she had had with the man now moved to the Justice portfolio.

That’s not a rumour started by bitter Labour activists, but comes from Tim Montgomerie of Conservative Home. And it isn’t a complaint – Tim seems to think it is perfectly normal that David Cameron would move his ministers if they upset Murdoch’s minions over dinner.

http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2009/10/01/power-without-responsibility/

[Rosa Luxemburg]

13. It would be nice to get PR in Britain Lab/Lib/Greens coalition