Official Exit Poll: Tory Largest Party

[Vicar In A Tutu]

FUCK. :(

FUCK FUCK FUCK. :(:(:(:(

Lib Dem lose seats.

[muriel_volestrangler]

1. crap - Lib Dem swing has disappeard

:(

[TheBigotBasher]

2. I do not believe the Lib Dem result.

Conservative result as expected.

[non sociopath skin]

3. Nor I.

Jon Snow said "Throw away the swingometer". He may turn out to be right.

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. I'm hoping it means they picked the wrong marginals to take the poll in

I believe they do it by picking 'representative marginals' and extrapolating from those. Did they concentrate on Labour-Tory seats, and has there been tactical voting (from Lib Dem to Labour) in those?

I'm hoping there's something like that going on.

[LeftishBrit]

11. Hope so.

This is a nailbiter.

There is no chance of a really good result, I don't suppose; but I would make do with not-the-worst, i.e. not an overall majority for the Tories.

[TheBigotBasher]

5. The man who is worse than any Tory victory is being horrible on BBC1

[Prophet 451]

6. Two important points

1) Exit polls have been wrong before (and Lord, I hope they are this time).
2) While it predicts the Tories as the biggest party, it doesn't predict them having enough seats to form a government.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. 1st result in: Lab to Con swing 8.4%, Lib Dem down 1%

That's in a safe Labour seat, so not necessarily indicative; but it does fit somewhat with the exit poll - ie there hasn't been an appreciable increase in Lib Dem vote. Compare it to the last regional poll, which had Lib Dems increasing from 23% in the North East to 29% (that was the week ending the 3rd of May). That seems to have vanished.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. 2nd result, also North East England, similar swings

this time:
Con +7
Lab -16
Lib Dem +1

Bigger drop in Labour share this time.

[LSdemocrat]

8. BBC has adjusted the exit poll: CON 305, LAB 255, LD 61, OTH 29

They dropped the Cons down two precious seats and gave them to the Lib Dems.

[Prophet 451]

9. Tories are planning to steal power regardless

Even if they don't get an outright majority, they're already laying plans (and making arguments on the Beeb) that they be allowed to ignore the Constitution and govern anyway.

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Bizarrely, the BBC still shows the total seats as 3-0-0, but ITV as 6-0-0 (+2 in NI)

Anyone been watching ITV consistently? How have they added another 3 results?

[LSdemocrat]

13. BBC just flashed Sinn Fein hold West Tyrone

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. ITV reports Labour have held City of Durham

which was a target for the Lib Dems.

ITV seems to be consistently ahead in reporting results (unless they are projecting a result, but calling it definite).

[TheBigotBasher]

15. I'm guessing ITV are not waiting until the formal Returning Officer announcement.

What's with the BBC crappy Iphone thing?

[Matilda]

16. Unlike Australia (or the US), it seemed that you have a viable third party

in the Lib Dems.

Why do you think that in the end, people decided to stick with the two majors?

[TheBigotBasher]

17. Cheating and vote blocking.

[Matilda]

18. Truly?

It's the morning here, and I did see a few quick headlines on television at breakfast about protests, but there
was nothing of substance. I really don't know much about what was happening, except for people queuing and not
being able to get in to vote - that in itself is a worry.

[TheBigotBasher]

20. National Union of Students condemns vote blocking in Sheffield

The National Union of Students (NUS) tonight condemned election officials after students were turned away from Ranmoor polling station in Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam constituency as they attempted to vote. Students have complained that they were denied the right to vote because of a decision to segregate student voters from other members of the electorate, the latter having been fast-tracked.

[Matilda]

22. I'm reading here that in some places, voters waiting were locked out.

In others, the voting hours were extended so everyone waiting could cast their vote.

Does anybody know whether it was illegal to shut the doors when people were already queuing, or was it illegal to
allow people to vote after official closing times?

[muriel_volestrangler]

19. There aren't clear patterns emerging yet

but one suggestion is that the turnout in the south east of England has been high, and that has stopped the Lib Dems making the gains they hoped to there - it seems there was a latent support for the Tories that didn't bother to vote last time, but have done so this time (knowing they stand a chance of being the government, perhaps). But the swings have varied quite widely across the country, so it's hard to work out what's happened.

[non sociopath skin]

21. So Jon Snow did have a point (see above), yes ...

The Skin

[craigmatic]

23. well at least Brown has the chance to form a government first