We could be getting a rainbow coalition after all

[Anarcho-Socialist]

To show how seriously the Tories are taking this threat is that they've put a referendum for AV on the table. If Clegg goes with Labour, Cameron will be in a fight to keep his job as party leader.

Plaid and the SNP are taking the coalition idea seriously. The SNP and Plaid cannot afford to be seen as helping the Tories by not voting with the nominally centre-left parties.

Sky are reporting that Labour are offering AV without a referendum.

[dipsydoodle]

1. Is anyone in a postion

to change our system of voting without a referendum ?

edit - I hit return by accident.

I'm sick and tired of that prat Adonis and Co treating the population like kindergarden children by stating that 258 + 57 > 306 give that 306 + 57 is an even greater number than 258. Nothing chages the fact that overall the vote was to get rid of New Labour.

BTW - without exception everyone I know , given the opportunity ,would tick the Green Party as 2nd choice using AV and just wait until the social networks get mobilised on that one.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. 2nd choice votes are only important from parties that get less 1st choice votes

Given the vast majority of (effectively 1st choice) votes go to Con, Lab or Lib Dem, it's those that a Green candidate needs to pick up to survive in an AV system - ie beat one of them in 1st choice votes.

What you'd need is for plenty of people to say "well, I always preferred Green, but never voted for them since they never looked like getting elected, so I'll put them 1st this time, and have Lab/LD/Con as my 2nd choice". Which is possible (because there might be voters for all 3 big parties at the moment who feel that way), but by no means guaranteed as a popular way of thinking.

[dipsydoodle]

11. Good thinking

Batman.

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. Without a referendum? That's surprising

Still just AV, not AV+ I take it, though. I suppose it still means exactly 1 MP per constituency, and they may be able to claim that's not a fundamental change to the un-collated constitution. And since AV was in Labour's manifesto (was that as a promise of referendum?), they can say this was supported, in a limited sense.

A model of how AV, and STV, might have affected this election here, from the Electoral Reform Society: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=191&topic_id=30247&mesg_id=30315

[Anarcho-Socialist]

3. Peter Hain said as much that it's not a drastic change

thereby not necessitating a referendum.

[dipsydoodle]

4. Another nail in their coffin then

if he really said that. That would be memorable - change something as important as the voting system without a referendum. They just don't know when to stop that cowboy outfit - do they Tonto. :)

[Anarcho-Socialist]

5. none of the previous voting reform acts went to a referedum

so there is constitutional precedent.

[dipsydoodle]

6. I think the population are more switched on these days

and may protest against change without agreement of a majority.

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. For that matter, Irish independence didn't go to a referendum

but Scottish and Welsh devolution did. Referenda have only been contemplated in the last 35 years - we even joined the EU without one.

[dipsydoodle]

10. Times, dear boy,

have changed - for the better I would hope.

[TheBigotBasher]

12. No we didn't.

Unless of course you are talking about the various forms that the EU has taken since. The referendum on becoming a member of the European community was one of the things that have totally poisoned the minds of Tories towards Heath.

[muriel_volestrangler]

13. We joined in 1973, without a referendum, under Heath

In Feb 1975, Thatcher took over as leader of the Tories; in June, a referendum was held, under the Labour government, on whether the UK should stay in the EEC (as it was then called). Thatcher campaigned to stay in, as, of course, did Heath: http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/6/newsid_2499000/2499297.stm

That was the first referendum ever held over the whole of the UK.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

9. Still unsure how that could work

According to Labour MP Diane Abbott who said that "tragically, the numbers mean that a Lib-Lab pact would be least stable". (BBC News website)

I feel that if I chose who I voted for based on the leader of the party, I'd be pretty pissed off if Labour picked someone I didn't like after wasting my vote for them.

I still think Tory/LibDem is much better than a Rainbow Coalition of several parties.

[Spider Jerusalem]

14. Sorry, but no

any government that includes the Tories is worse than the alternative. And how workable a Tory/Lib Dem coalition would be given that they have fundamental disagreements on issues including the economy (Tories: cuts now, double-dip recession be damned! vs Lib Dems: focussing on deficit reduction whilst in fragile recovery from severe recession would be irresponsible), Europe (the Tory Eurosceptic right are doing all they can to marginalise Britain within the EU by aligning with the worst right-wing European parties), voting reform (the Tories are against it), immigration (Lim Dems want an amnesty for illegal immigrants; the Tories want a wholly unworkable 'cap on immigration'...unworkable because they can't propose to limit or control immigration from within the EU while Britain remains a member)...on most of these issues the Lib Dems are much closer to the policy of Labour (and also the other prospective members of a 'rainbow coalition') than they are the Tories.

Not to mention that doing a deal with the Tories would be electoral suicide for the Lib Dems; they would not just bleed support at the next election but haemorrhage it. Most of the recent Lib Dem converts are former Labour voters who switched in disgust at the policies of New Labour (most specifically the Iraq war and civil liberties) and who would never vote Lib Dem again if it led to a Tory government now.

[BolivarianHero]

15. What new LibDem voters?

The LibDems gained almost no new voters this election.

[Spider Jerusalem]

16. 6.8 million votes, vs 5.9 million in 2005.

More votes, despite getting fewer seats (and the larger Lib Dem gain came at the 2005 general election, after Iraq, etc...when they saw their vote increase by 1.4 million more than their results in 2001). For comparison the Lib Dem vote FELL by four hundred thousand in 2001 as compared to their performance in 1997.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

17. This is what I thought of Brown and Labour

When I was voting the way I did: "Brown reminds me of Bush." Two wars, an economic recession, expenses scandal etc.

I am Liberal but I wouldn't mind a Tory/LibDem alliance because it's the most stable option. I'd rather two parties hammering out government than a multi-party alliance where many MPs disagree on many things. Even some Labour MPs agree with the Tory/LibDem alliance.

The Tories will have to make concessions and compromises when courting LibDem and those issues might be on the table.

[LeftishBrit]

18. I think you're equating Brown with Blair here

Brown can be faulted for sticking around in Blair's government in the hope of finally succeeding him (and he did, but only after 10 years and with a seriously poisoned chalice), instead of fighting and resigning. But he did not originate the policies.

The two wars were Blair's, not Brown's; in fact Brown to a large extent ended Britain's role in one of them.

The economic recession is global, though perhaps aggravated here by a move from an industrial to a banking/service economy, which was spearheaded by Thatcher, though New Labour did nothing to reverse it.

The expenses scandal involved both main parties. E.g. the Tory who charged the taxpayers for cleaning his *moat*! Hardly Brown's doing. And does anyone here remember all the Tory 'sleaze' scandals in the Major government?

Brown is no Attlee, but he is certainly no Bush!!! I would say that he's to the left of Obama on a number of issues.

[FunkyLeprechaun]

19. Here are some updates from the BBC

"The first Labour minister has openly expressed the feeling that a Lab-Lib coalition is not viable. Schools Minister Diana Johnson told BBC Radio Humberside: "What I think, at the moment, is that the numbers for a Liberal-Labour coalition government just don't stack up. We've got 258 seats, and I don't think with the Lib Dems and a variety of other people in parliament, that we could form a stable government."

BBCLauraK tweets:" Lord Adonis is in Downing Street too - one Labour minister Diana Johnson suggests Lib-Lab coalition would not be stable Lab MPs opposed to PR meeting this afternoon to discuss their strategy - not looking good for lab-lib deal." (BBC)

BevaniteEllie tweets: "The Labour Party will form a solid opposition and come back, at the next general election (soon, I hope), stronger. I fear a pact may make us weaker" (Pro-Labour)

Watching the BBC news title on the telly states: "Many Labour MPs are opposed to coalition."

Doesn't sound good for a Rainbow Coalition at all. More likely a Tory/LibDem coalition.

[T_i_B]

20. We've come to a pretty pass

When the tweets of Ellie Gellard are what passes for important news updates.

So much is being said by people who know nothing of what's actually going on.

[tjwmason]

A variant on Parkinson's Law?

The amount of ill-informed prognosticating will expand to fill the 24hour News Channels' schedule slot?

[FunkyLeprechaun]

21. Well I'm doing my paper and having one eye on the action on BBC News

And occasionally looking at the website. The BBC News website saw it fit to include those comments. I didn't mean to put her twitter stuff up but it seems she's a hardline Labour supporter.

What do you think is going on now? The Tories and LibDem are meeting up whilst the Labour ministers are meeting at Downing Street... I think it'll be a Tory/LibDem alliance and Labour is preparing to step down. Yet another Labour MP, Kate Hoey, on now saying that Labour has to accept that they've lost. The guy on now saying that the talks between Labour and LibDem are finished.

I think that's it for the Rainbow Alliance. If Cameron is a bad PM we'll vote him out! :-)

[T_i_B]

22. Oh it's a criticism of the BBC, most certainly not you

The offending Twitterfeed is here and yes, "hardline Labour supporter" would be putting it mildly http://twitter.com/BevaniteEllie

I don't know what's going on now, but then again who really does? :shrug: