Local Government, Scottish Parliament & Welsh Assembly elections on 5 May

[T_i_B]

It's that time of year for the obligatory thread about the upcoming elections. This year we have local government elections, Scottish Parliament elections, Welsh Assembly elections and the AV referendum. (The AV referendum is probably worth a thread in it's own right IMHO)

http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/default.aspx

Please feel free to comment on the elections where you are and the possible outcome over in your neck of the woods.

I've got town council elections and I would expect the Tories to win in my own ward. However, over the border in Sheffield it's more a matter of whether or not Labour will take control of the council off the Lib Dems.

Haven't seen any campaigning though, other then Yes2AV leafleting outside Sheffield Town Hall. (Every weekend there's somebody holding a rally outside Sheffield Town Hall and to be honest it's getting rather tiresome)

[LeftishBrit]

1. No local elections in Oxford

The City Council elections aren't till next year, and the County Council not till 2013.

However, I will definitely be going to the polls to vote Yes to AV.

[T_i_B]

2. Well long time posters on the UK forum...

...will probably be able to guess which one of the warring factions I'm on.

However, I think that the referendum will need a thread of it's own.

On another note, if there are any local issues where you are that will have an impact at local elections this year please feel free to tell us about them.

Where I am the big issue is whether or not money should be spent on repairing the many potholes round here or putting in more speedbumps.

[non sociopath skin]

3. No elections in Northumberland, sadly ...

... so the unbelievably incompetent Lib Dems and their Tory farmer allies will be able to bumble around for a little longer and sell off a little more of the family silver before they're annihilated.

Elsewhere looks interesting. In North Tyneside, where I work, Labour will have to be very unlucky or very incompetent or both not to take overall control (they're currently the largest party) and usher in "co-existence" with the Tory mayor.

Newcastle will be fascinating. If only the current downward trajectory of the Lib Dems appertains, then they might just cling to power. However, so reviled are they in the North East since taking Cameron's shilling that the bump might be much greater this year. It will also be interesting to see if the Tories regain a foothold in the "stockbroker belt" of Gosforth and Jesmond where they have no representation at the moment.

The Skin

[LeftishBrit]

4. The District Councils in Oxfordshire all do have some seats up

These are South Oxfordshire, Cherwell, West Oxfordshire and the Vale of the White Horse.

These are all very rural areas, which have either one Labour councillor or none. The first three of the district councils that I mentioned are overwhelmingly Tory, with very few LibDems. West Oxfordshire is more-or-less the same thing as David Cameron's Witney constituency, so you can imagine what it's like there! The Vale of the White Horse is Lib Dem controlled, though with a fair number of Tories, so that might be more interesting - but if the LibDem vote goes down there it will doubtless favour the Tories; Labour don't really get a look-in.

[tjwmason]

5. It will be interesting to watch the Tory vs. LibDem areas

It's the same sort of picture in Bucks where the Labour Party is almost non-existent and the LibDems have been seen by the general population as the 'left-wing' opposition...

Currently all four district councils have large Tory majorities. Only Wycombe District has any Labour councillors (two of them). Across the county there are currently 147 Tories against 41 LibDems, 2 Labour, and 8 Independents.

Personally I suspect that the usual Tory voters won't be greatly upset by the national picture, but that the LibDems will be highly demotivated by it - but I don't see much scope for Labour growth outside of a couple of the towns (High Wycombe in particular). This could well result in a few wards going from the LibDems to the Tories.

[non sociopath skin]

6. Indeed, tjw.

The traction between the Tories and Lib Dems will be interesting.

As I mentioned above, the Lib Dems first gained a foothold on Newcastle Council by replacing the Tories. It's often forgotten that, within living memory, the Tories were the "natural party of government" of many Northern cities. This was certainly the case in Newcastle until the reorganisation of the early 70s when many more working-class suburbs were brought within the city boundaries.

Should the Lib Dems fortunes decline as much as some commentators are suggesting, then the Tories are likely to make a comeback in some of the more affluent suburbs.

The Skin

[T_i_B]

7. A Lib Dem collapse would have all sorts of effects at local elections

In Sheffield it would result in the return of Labour to power (which may not be such a good thing given Labour's record in Sheffield)

In other places such as Colchester it would result in a Tory controlled council, although a Lib Dem former DUer is defending a Colchester council seat against a strong Green challenge in his ward.

It varies from ward to ward quite frankly, and the record of the Lib Dem's locally, as well as the record of their opponents locally has to be taken into account.

BTW, one thing I have found out today is that the Tory who was kicked of my local council (and deselected as a parliamentary candidate for Sheffield Hallam) for non-attendance is now standing in Sheffield in the only ward where the Tories stand any chance of winning! You'd have thought that the Tories would take better care then that.

[Ken Burch]

10. Since all THREE major parties have problems in Oxfordshire

Are there openings there for minor parties or independents to make gains on the District Councils?

[LeftishBrit]

11. Unfortunately the Tories don't have problems on the Oxfordshire district councils

With the one possible exception of the Vale of the White Horse.

Oxford City Council is another matter - not a single Tory at the moment! - but they are not having an election this year.

I think the district councils will stay overwhelmingly Tory.

As regards minor parties, there is a Green presence on Oxford City Council, though it has gone down since the tragically early death of their leading figure, Mike Woodin. The predominantly-Tory Oxfordshire County Council (also not having an election this year) has two Green councillors: you may be interested to know that one of them, Larry Sanders, is the brother of Senator Bernie Sanders. I don't think that the Greens or any other minor party will make inroads on the District Councils.

[LeftishBrit]

22. Ugh, the Tories did take over Vale of the White Horse. And the others just stayed ultra-Tory.

Predictable, but depressing.

[T_i_B]

8. So....anyone seen much going on with local elections?

Quite a few people have Labour or Lib Dem election posters up in Chesterfield, but none where I live and very few in Sheffield, with the exception of the Green party in Central Sheffield.

I'm expecting turnout for both local elections and the referendum to be pretty poor if I'm honest.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

9. I live in Gateshead now

Safe Labour council and will remain so. Like skin, I'm interested to see what happens north of the river and whether Lib Dems lose the toon.

[Ken Burch]

12. Anybody have any theories about how the Scottish Parliament election will go?

Just saw a story on the BBC that Labour may lose some ground in the Welsh Assembly(probably just because they're in power there).

From what I've heard, the SNP are considered to have done fairly well running a minority government.

[fedsron2us]

13. Looks like a pretty spectacular collapse in the Liberal Democrat vote

nationwide but with different parties benefiting depending on which part of the UK the poll is taking place.

In Scotland former LD voters seem to be switching straight to the SNP which is probably going to cost Labour a lot of seats in the Scottish assembly. Labour are also not helped north of the border by the fact their leader there is generally considered an inferior performer to Alex Salmond.

In England Labour appear likely to be the main beneficiaries of the LD decline and should be winning back control of Hull, Sheffield and Liverpool.

The defining lesson from the polls will probably be that the Liberal Democrats face electoral oblivion as a result of CLegg's decision to involve them in a formal coalition with Cameron's Conservatives. The only possibly way of stemming the slide is for them to ditch their leader and to quit the government. I expect the momentum for that to happen to become unstoppable before the May 2012 Local Elections.

[T_i_B]

14. Lib Dems lost control of Sheffield

Where they lost 9 seats to Labour, including some areas which have previously been Lib Dem strongholds.

[T_i_B]

15. On the other hand...

Lib Dems held all their seats in Colchester, with former DUer UKNick retaining his Castle Ward council seat.

http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/9011474.Colchester_Council_full_results__No_change/

Does seem though, that the Lib Dems have become the Tories human shield, getting all the stick for the Tories policies whilst the Tories get let off the hook.

[fedsron2us]

16. Lib Dem vote seems to have held up better in the South than the North

but that is probably just a reflection of how weak the Labour party is south of Watford in the post Blair/Brown era. As I have mentioned before they have not even managed to field candidates in wards in my area where they have won in the past. In fact the polls are a bit of a mixed bag for Labour with them gaining ground in Northern England and Wales but doing badly in Scotland. Milliband looks on course only to gain about 600 Labour council seats which is not a great performance given that the government is not universally popular. By comparison William Hague was winning 1000 plus Council seats for the Tories before getting his arse kicked in a Labour General Election landslide. Labour has a long, long road to build up its activist base after the years of neglect it suffered under the last government.

In fact apart from the SNP the other big winners last night were the Conservatives in England who amazingly have added seats to their existing high tally. The coalition seems to be working out as a dream for Cameron and the Tories and as a nightmare for Nick Cleggs Liberal Democrats.

[non sociopath skin]

17. Wouldn't disagree with any of that, Feds.

Salmond and Cameron were the big winners last night.

So it's onward to a referendum on Scottish independence, any possibility of electoral reform stymied for a generation, the privatisation of the NHS and the ruination of the public sector.

Not good.

The Skin

[fedsron2us]

18. Cameron' governments freedom to drive through its policies

does rather depend on the Coalition holding together.

I personally think the majority of Lib Dem MPs will walk out of it in the next 12 months leaving a few Orange book nutters behind to join the Tory ranks. After that happens the Parliamentary arithmetic gets a bit tougher for Cameron.

On the subject of electoral reform I am not sad to see AV go down as it is just as shite as FPTP and certainly would not 'change the face of British politics'. In fact if it shortens the life of the coalition it will have done some good. I think the subject will return but it needs to part of a set of proposals for wider constitutional reform not just tinkering with the voting system so a few of Cleggy's mates can have a few years on expenses at Westminster. To be honest I am a bit disappointed Labour are not front running on this issue. Millibands backing of the Yes campaign was half hearted at best and a good portion of his party's supporters have clearly voted No.

[T_i_B]

19. The below blogpost is interesting

It's ConservativeHome arguing prior to yesterday's elections that a snap election would be in the Conservatives interest.

http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2011/04/david-cameron-should-prepare-for-an-early-general-election.html

It could be argued that this argument is very relevent indeed given yesterday's results, but by the same token you could also argue that David Cameron might like having the Liberal Democrats as his own personal human shield taking all of the blame for his policies.

[fedsron2us]

21. Calling a snap General Election would be a high risk strategy

for Cameron as the wider opinion polls don't indicate that Tories would win it outright. In addition the Conservatives have formally committed themselves to a full 5 year Parliament. If they openly renege on that written agreement then their opponents will be able to portray them as being as cynically opportunistic as Clegg. Much better to let disgruntled Liberal Democrat MPs make the first move to so Cameron's party can claim that they were not the ones who broke the coalition agreement. It also has to be remembered that the Conservatives have no outright majority in Parliament so they might not actually be able to force a dissolution at a time of their choosing. Moreover the monarch might decide to ask Milliband if he could put together a government from the other parties in the House of Commons without recourse of going to the polls. If that happened then Cameron would simply be back as leader of the opposition again. I can not really see why Cameron would want to do anything to violate the coalition agreement when everything is currently working out so sweetly for him and his party.

[Ken Burch]

25. Could they be thinking that, if it worked in Canada, it would work for them?

The conditions are different, but in both cases the common point is that the Liberal party in question went into collapse.

[T_i_B]

26. And in my council (North East Derbyshire)......

Labour retained overall control, with the Lib Dems being wiped out.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

20. Scotland and Wales voted for social democracy

Labour have implemented social democratic ideas the best they can within the limited powers of the Welsh Assembly. As a result they were rewarded by the voters.

In Scotland the SNP were saved from their decade-long flirtation with the small state neolib model that caused such booms in Ireland and Estonia before their imploding. Thankfully the SNP never got to implement it and its social democratic wing has been ascendent once again. Scottish voters appear to be rewarding the SNP government's commitment to social spending, and you can understand why an unrepenting Scottish Labour Party has been drubbed.

I see this as a neutral result for Milliband. He has been rather ineffectual as leader and the Parliamentary Labour Party is suffering from an impoverished connection to Third Way ideology. The results are as much as he ought to have hoped for. The Scottish Parliament is not a council chamber and the Scots voted with a clear differentiation between Holyrood and Westminster, thus voting with Holyrood concerns in mind.

The Tories may celebrate SNP's drubbing of Labour but the Tories' celebration is surely Pyrrhic in nature. Scotland didn't vote for Tartan Tories in nats' clothing, but rather a broad social democratic position. In any case there is plenty of reason to believe that Labour will still do well in Scotland for general elections. The SNP don't tend to do well in Westminster elections which benefit Labour.

[tjwmason]

27. Agree about Scotland.

The S.N.P. were given a taste of government, the people perceived that they performed well and they've been rewarded (as it were) with a majority government. As you say, the people voted with Holyrood concerns in mind.

I don't think that an independence referendum will be their top priority, but if they do hold one I predict that Scotland will vote for the union but with a large minority in favour of separation...which will strengthen any attempts to strengthen devolution.

[LeftishBrit]

23. I hate the Tories. I just hate the Tories.

I wish Labour had done better, specially in the south.

Not that I necessarily love Labour.

But I just hate hate HATE the Tories.

[Ken Burch]

24. They won't do better until they make a clear and final break with Blairism

And their still too scared of the damage they think Blair and his cult could do to them. From what I could see from over here, the relationship between Blair and the Labour Party was that of an abuser to his victim...and it takes a victim six to eight tries to leave their abuser, so I'm not sure they truly have the courage to do that yet.