What are your reflections on the General Election result?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

I'm going to have some breakfast before I share my opinion - my brain is fried.

[CottonBear]

1. What was the result? I've been asleep, woke up and checked DU.

Is Blair still PM?

Did Lib Dems gain seats?

What does it all mean?

sincerely,

Southern American

[Anarcho-Socialist]

3. OK, here's what's happened...

Blair is still Prime Minister. However he is weakened. The Labour Party's majority of seats was reduced from 160 to 64. This also means that Blair is likely to leave in the next 12-18 months because the balance of power favours the anti-war social democrats in the Labour Party, rather than the pro-war Blairite hawks (many of which lost their seats).

Lib Dems gained a small number of seats about 8-9. They're still far behind the other two parties (Labour, Conservatives) in number of seats. They have about 59 seats.

Overall, it's good for the left. Labour is generally a good party but Blair is an asshole and it will hasten him leaving.

[aneerkoinos]

5. LD bit more

All seats have not been called, and it seems LD is going for 62, +11.
Mostly from LAB.

So far LD loosing 5 seats to CON, gaining 3, -2. This is bad, as most LD target seats were CON, I wonder why they didn't better? Tactical voting not working as well and LD promise to raise taxes?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

6. it was because the Lib Dems positioned themselves

to the left of Labour and it hurt them in the Lib Dem/Tory marginals but helped them in Lib Dem/Labour marginals. However their gains from Labour will be lost if Labour return to the centre-left under Gordon Brown.

[aneerkoinos]

30. That's big if

and if economy goes bad, as I predict it will, the opposition/gov factor remains or increases, and Tory-antipathy is likely to remain. And demographics should not be forgot, LD seems to be the preferred student/youth party, because of commitment to voting age of 16 and not least because they're "soft on drugs", to quote bLiar.

[Henny Penny]

13. Their policies are polar opposites

so there was never going to be much swapping between them. The charge was laid at the Lib dem door that they were to the left of labour in lab constituencies and to the right of the tories in con constituencies. Clearly the first part was true but the second was not.

It will be very interesting to see how many constituencies the lib dems finished 2nd in. If this number is high, then I think they can will have made huge progress.

But the question may be what do the Tories do? If they think they did well enough to hold on to Howard, they are doomed, but if they are prepared to replace him with someone like David Davis, then they could be a serious threat next time round.

Overall, I'm surprised the turnout was so high. Labour's scare tactics clearly worked well enough to counteract the protest voters. And much as I am angered by Tony Blair, I think he dealt with a personally extremely difficult campaign, very well.

The moment of the election for me was the speech made by Reg Keys, the father of a young man killed in Iraq, who was standing against Tony Blair in Sedgefield.

[Jack Rabbit]

21. The Liberal Democrats have won 62 seats

That's up from 51, a gain of 11. Overall, we must consider it a good night for them.

The seats they lost to the Tories probably had a lot to do with them positioning themselves to the left of Labour. It sounds a little bit like what would happen here if the Democrats ran a Kucinich-like progressive for the Senate in a deep red state. It just wouldn't work.

Nevertheless, the LibDems have to consider their strategy a success. The more than made up for their losses to the Tories by taking seats away from Labour.

The Liberal Democrats did the world a great service last night. Had they not run as the anti-war party, it would not be clear that Blair was being spanked for leading his country into a war that unpopular, unnecessary and predicated on lies.

* * *

The parliamentary structure, being what it is, makes the candidate for a seat in Westminster more of an appendege of his party than is a candidate for the US Congress. There's not much party discipline here. Imagine a British politician saying what Barry Goldwater said in 1964: Party platforms are a pack of lies. If you think the statement is remarkable, consider that he said that a couple of days before receiving his party's presidential nomination.

In any case, if an American voter wants an idea how his candidate for Congress or the state legislature will vote if elected, he has to listen to the candidate's speeches. Reading the party platform won't tell him much.

[vota]

48. BBC's assessment

Quote from BBC News website
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4519997.stm

"All eyes will now focus on the prime minister's future - and what many believe is the near-inevitability of a handover to Gordon Brown well before the end of this third term ... perhaps the moment that will have rocked him the most will have been when Respect's George Galloway ousted Oona King after a campaign based almost entirely on anti-war sentiments."

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. OK...

Well, first-of-all I think it means that Labour's move to the Right did not pay off in electoral terms. Most of the Labour vote lost went to the Lib Dems due to the Iraq-factor and because of some of New Labour's authoritarian/free market policies.

The Tories got lucky. Their percentage of popular vote barely moved since 2001 (just 0.5% higher, mostly at the expense of Lib Dems) and they principally benefited from Labour voters switching to Lib Dems in Tory/Labour marginals.

The Lib Dems did alright. They didn't do well against the Tories and their 'breakthrough' never happened. They lost more seats to the Tories than what they gained from them - I think trying to be to the left of Labour costs them in Tory/Lib Dem marginals. But they benefitted from disaffected Labour voters in Labour/Lib Dem marginals.

The Scots Nationalists gained 2 seats but 1 less than expected. They were pushed into 3rd place by the Lib Dems in both number of Scottish seats and in the popular vote. Plaid Cymru also went nowhere. I'm hopeful that people are seeing through the uselessness of nationalism.

---------------

If Labour have any sense, they'll stick to centre-left politics and play no further role in military interventions abroad. Blair should go in the next 18 months if not sooner.

Lib Dems are in a precaurious position. They benefitted from anger over Blair, but if Labour return to the centre-left they'll lose many seats gained from Labour. To make this up, they'll either have to move further left OR move to the right (Orange Book?) to be competitive in Tory/Lib Dem marginals.

The Tories' nasty campaign only bagged them an extra 0.5% of the vote, but they got lucky. If the Tories had any sense, they'll become a libertarian (small 'c' conservative) party - but this is unlikely to happen. I can only see the Tories returning to power only if Labour implodes and the centre-left vote is split further.

[autorank]

4. What would it take to get bLiar out much sooner.

I'm not talking about a battle to the death "Cage Match" with Galloway (although I'd pay $50 to see it on pay-per-view).

I'm talking about things like more damning leaks about Iraq, anger by those who lost filtering up at bLiar, photos of bLiar choking an Iraqi prisoner(cancel that, those are already out).

Is there precedent for a PM being tossed post haste?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

7. If there was something particularly damaging, Blair would

have to resign, or his party could force a leadership challenge.

Thatcher was thrown out by her own party, but that was 3 years after the '87 election. There isn't any precedent for a PM to be thrown out immediately after an election.

[autorank]

23. We can only hope! Thanks.

[D-Notice]

24. That wasn't really due to an election result,

it was the Poll Tax riots that finshed her off

[Taxloss]

34. Blair's get-out clause is health. His heart.

If he makes an exit, it may be for "health" reasons - the "honourable" way out.

[D-Notice]

35. Hopefully this result will

"encourage" his heart to conk-out

[UKCynic]

8. Not a good result

I have posted this on other threads but you may as well have it here too.

The Tory voters are going back home. This is terrible. Also the Tory voters have realised too soon that the Liberal Democrats are well to the left of New Labour. LibDems can only replace the Labour party as the party of the left, whilst the Labour party moves right and the Conservatives disappear. Any thing else just won't work. This time the LibDem challenge was against the Tories and failed, as it was bound to, but they took some Labour seats, (mostly on civil liberties issues and the potential return of Blunket, if you ask me).

If the Tories continue to get their act together, we are all screwed, as the electorate gets bored with any party, and there are troubles ahead. It may be that a Brown leadership will revive the Labour image, just as the novelty of Major carried the Tories through one more election than seemed possible.

[ikri]

10. For the Tories to get their act together

They'd have to stop electing crap leaders.

They have one or two people within the party who have enough charisma and public recognition and could probably lead them to election victory: Ann Widdecombe, Michael Portillo and perhaps Ken Clarke.

Unfortunately Widdecombe is an unmarried virgin, not going to win the "family" vote. And Portillo is apparently unsure of his sexuality, not going to win the right-wing homophobe vote. Ken Clarke is a europhile and an old conservative, so while his policies are probably in the same area as Blair's he's obviously (to the Tory party at least) unelectable.

Moreover, if Labour actually realise that they've lost voters to the LibDems based upon their drift away from traditional policies, they should be able to move back to their traditional left-of-centre policies whilst keeping the same economic policies that have made them more attractive to many centre-right voters.

[UKCynic]

17. You have forgotten David Davies

The LibDem push against him failed badly. He is now available for leadership. There is also Letwin, who would not be as effective. The big donors really like Davies. I think that the Tories may have bounced, and not a dead cat bounce either. Iraq hasn't helped, but the real problem was that Blair is no longer seen as competent. There is a big pension problem coming and the revaluation of property for Council Tax, both will increase the Tory vote.

Four years to the next Tory govt, unless they implode again. Start work now.

[ikri]

20. David Davies

Hasn't got the name recognition of those that I mentioned.

To be honest I can't even picture his face, so he's never made much of an impression on me at least.

I'm sure if you mentioned his name to people most would have trouble knowing who he was unless you mention to them that he's a prominent Tory.

[communerd]

27. Well, he's the hot favourite

So we'll all be seeing a lot more of his face than I'm sure any of us would like over the enxt few months. Real nasty piece of work- like all the most successful tory leaders...

[UKCynic]

18. More on Davies

I think this is the guy who was in the territorial SAS. Some comedian said that he could strangle his granny with cheese-wire; but only at weekends.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

9. I don't entirely agree

This is the first ever third-term Labour government. To me, that says that the move towards the right did pay off.

I think the reason it worked is because it came at a time when Tory voters were desperate for anyone other than the Tories to vote for, and most left-wing voters would vote Labour automatically. Now that it looks as though the Conservatives are getting their act together, and the left is widely fed up with Labour, it's not working any more, which is why Labour's majority was reduced so much.

[non sociopath skin]

12. Back in 1997 last night's majority was what we dreamt of.

The traditionally Tory seats we picked up were the icing on the cake, but ended up giving us indigestion.

As we know from this board, the left is not fed up with "Labour". It's fed up with Blair and particularly with his act as Dubya's poodle.

Well, now he's a busted flush and the omens are favourable for a return to better politics.

The Skin

[UKCynic]

19. Wilson would have killed for such a majority

you are absolutely right. Labour is not in trouble especially as the Iraq mud does not seem to stick to Brown, though it should.

The next thing to watch is the reshuffle. If Blair feels that he is weakened then brownites will be included. But if not then Brown himself could be sacked. It is possible and Blair would like to do it. Myself i don't think Blair would now survive sacking Brown.

[non sociopath skin]

11. AS. you are my main man! Not only did you have more staying power ...

... than me but your analysis is spot-on.

When I crawled into bed at 4 a.m. Mrs Skin asked "Who won?" and I said "Nobody - or to put it another way, everybody."

The Tories will be spinning like a top but in the cold light of day, their "achievement," doesn't amount to much - essentially the "clawing back" of some of those seats we couldn't believe they'd won eight years ago. Prepare to hear endless sounding out about being robbed by postal votes and constituency gerrymandering, but the truth is that, as you said, AS, a lot of it was the squeeze I warned about. Fortunately the LibDems did less well than expected in these kind of seats.

Yes, curiously enough it's the LibDems who are going to have to have the biggest strategy rethink - the much-vaunted recovery didn't happen on a national scale because trying to be all things to all persons doesn't work nationwide like it does on a regional scale. Watch out for a lot of wrangling between Orange-bookers and others.

So, on the whole, not a bad result from a DU point of view. Blair will have to work with a PLP core of seasoned Northern, Midland and Celtic Labour politicians rather than permatanned dilettante cheerleaders who only found out there was a Labour Party when Blair was elected Leader.

Bad news that Fuhrer Griffin got credibility in Keighley. Time to sell immigration as a public good, Tone.

But wasn't Kiljoy-Slick's face a picture?

The Skin

[Henny Penny]

15. "Who won?" and I said "Nobody -

I totally agree here. All three parties have reasons to be down and reasons to be cheerful. It can only mean, a lot of profound changes taking place under the surface at local level.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

36. Thanks, skin

:hi:

I think "were you up for Kilroy?" was my highlight of the night. I thought Kilroy looked like he was on the verge of sobbing/or his head exploding.

[non sociopath skin]

38. What a shame it didn't. Now there would have been an image to cherish!

What do we think he'll do now. Leave politics to spend more time with his sunbed?

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

39. He'll reappear if the European Constitution referendum goes ahead

looking more orange than what was previously considered feasible.

[LeftishBrit]

44. I thought his head exploded long ago!!!

[Anarcho-Socialist]

47. It's going to continue to get more orange first...

...then we'll see a mighty bang.

[Atlanticist]

49. "The Tories got lucky" !!! You have to be joking of course.

I would have thought it was Labour that was lucky - winning only 35.2% of the popular vote, yet somehow managing to "win" 55.1% of all seats in Parliament!!!!

Our voting system is a disgrace. I agree with Labour peer, Lord Lipsey, who calls the voting system "viciously biased" against the Tories (and even more so against the LD's btw).

This inequity built into our electoral system is probably my biggest reflection on Thurs night, along with Reg Key's emotional speech, David Laws victory for local democracy, Jeremy Paxman's slide into parody and the strange growths on the face of the new Putney MP.

[D-Notice]

50. Aren't those "strange growths"

known as "cheek bones"?

[D-Notice]

14. I'm quite happy with how it turned out:

Labour's majority (mid 60s) was well down on what I predicted (90-100), Tories haven't gained any more votes & Lib Dem have gained seats.

[Vladimir]

16. That victory is sweet

The last four weeks, in terms of time put in and emotional involvement, have been draining as hell. I am still drained, but also fucking euphoric at last night's result (I guess you know which one I mean). First time that a far-left party's candidate has unseated a sitting Labour MP since comrade Willie Gallacher in 1935 AFAIK, and it feels all the better because, well, I did something to help. Not an enormous amount, but something.

On the election as a whole, it kind of went as predicted except that Labour got cut down somewhat more than I was expecting. Still, they have a fairly solid majority, and I can't see much watering down of pre-election policies. I think they will try and time the succession to leave about 12-18 months between a new leader taking over from Blair and the general election, to capitalise on a sort of honeymoon 'give him a chance' feeling. Assuming no major paradigm shifting events (like 9/11) of course...

On edit: One thing I didn't expect, but should have done and its kind of obvious in retrospect, is how badly the Lib Dems got hit by the Tories in many of their marginals. Its all very well to have lots of marginals against Tories, but it makes your position precarious when two of your main policies (scrapping tuition fees and council tax reform) rely on taxing higher earners heavily. Charles Kennedy has a lot of thinking to do after this result...

[aneerkoinos]

22. Congrats Galloway and his people!

I think you are right about Tax policies hurting LD against Tory.

However I think in the long run this was good for LD and Kennedy had the right tactic for his big goal in 2010. LD is now in good positions to strike a major blow against Labour in 2010 (who will be hurt because economy is not going to be better but worse next time), and either win a hung parliament or create such a threat of Tory victory that Labour chooses PR for next election. This time CON was saved from their EU problem, but EU will the main theme for coming years. Howards resignation and call for new rules for electing Tory head is very interesting, I think he hopes to open up the vote, so next leader might be less Euro-phobic and more palatable to others beside party loyalists. This of course runs the risk UKIP resurging to hurt Tory chanses next time.

[RogueTrooper]

28. Well they have themselves one gorgeous symbol

shame he's a dreadfull mp.

[D-Notice]

25. Bliar's response:

"I know that Iraq has been a deeply divisive issue ... I also know and believe that after this election people want to move on."

http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/europe/05/06/british.election.main/

But he doesn't mention drawing a line under it...

[Jack Rabbit]

26. It is very clear what the issue was and why Labour lost so many seats

The Tories showed only a marginal improvement in their share of the overall popular vote yesterday. Although they may be the beneficiaries on paper, this can hardly be called a comeback for them.

The real story was the 4% shift in votes from Labour to the Liberal Democrats. This was due to the Prime Minister's stubborn insistence of going to war behind the tyrant Bush against the wisdom of the British people. The result was Labour losing seats in many marginal districts; most of these fell to the Tories, but several to the Liberal Democrats.

The Tories chastised Blair for lying. They only got it half right. Michael Howard still insisted that Blair was right to enter Britain into a war that most Britons feel was unnecessary and not in the national interest. The result for the Tories has already been noted: virtual stagnation at the polls. They didn't win so many seats as they simply backed into them.

It was the Liberal Democrats who got it right and improved their voter share as a result. Blair had entered Britain into an illegal war of aggression behind a tyrant bent on world domination and predicated his actions on a pack of lies. Neither the war nor the lies that justified it could be forgiven.

It should be further noted that many of the seats Labour lost were held by those who stood behind Blair when he stood behind Bush. Those in Labour who stood with the British people in opposition to the war fared much better. Perhaps former Labourite George Galloway's narrow victory over Blair loyalist Oona King in Bethnal Green was emblematic of Labour's problems.

There can be no mistaking that this election rendered the British people's verdict of Bush's war and Blair's foolish participation in it. It is now up to Labour to finish the job and evict Mr. Blair from Number 10 Downing Street. The sooner that is done, the better.

[non sociopath skin]

32. What really happened, Jack, was that there was less tactical voting.

Most of the seats that the Tories won from Labour were in well-heeled Tory heartlands which in "normal" circumstances Labour would never have won in 1997 and certainly never retained in 2001: however, tactical voting by LibDems and others swung them to Labour.

The picture last night was mixed, to say the least: far from the much-heralded breakthrough, the LibDems lost as well as gained and, in the end, about broke even

You're right about this weakening Blair, though, and I share your wish for his speedy departure.

The Skin

[Jack Rabbit]

33. Exactly.

In other words, people who normally favor the Liberal Democrats over Labour were less inclined to vote Labour just to keep a Tory out. Would they been more inclined to vote tactically had Blair not gone to war?

[Apollo11]

29. My thoughts ...

David Davies will be the new Tory leader. He comes across very well on TV. Better than any Tory leader I can remember (and there have been quite a number of them!). He will make the Tories serious contenders next time around - although they still have a mountain to climb if they are to win an overall majority. These days - the FPTP voting system seems to work in Labour's favour. The Tories would need to increase their share of the vote from 33% to more than 42% in order to form the next Government. Whereas Labour still has a working majority with only 37% of the votes.

Charles Kennedy does not inspire as many voters as the LibDems were hoping. He does not look like a very healthy guy to be honest - even with a good-looking wife and baby. Most people don't see him as a potential Prime Minister of the UK.

Tony Blair must stay on until the referendum on the EU Constitution, which must be held in 2006 (that is - IF France and Holland vote yes in 4 weeks time). The Tories will be leading the campaign for a "NO" vote - backed by The Sun and the Daily Mail. This will be Blair's last stand, to keep Britain at the heart of Europe. If the NO camp wins - Blair may resign immediately as Party Leader. Brown would be the strong favourite to succeed him.

All eyes must now be on the referenda in France (May 29th) and Holland (June 1st) ...

Did anyone see Dead Ringers on BBC2 last night? Hilarious sketch of Gordon Brown in a wheelchair (referring to Little Britain) ...

[aneerkoinos]

31. Double damn on Blair

If he does not leave EU-vote to Brown's shoulders, it will not be a vote on EU-constitution but Blair, and Blair will guarantee it to fail.

[UKCynic]

37. I would agree but

Brown is less of a Europhile than Blair.

[aneerkoinos]

40. Smartest thing

Blair promises he leaves right after the referendum no matter what the outcome, so that it does not become a referendum on Blair but on the constitution. And if no-vote wins, no shame on Brown.

And it's possible that people are so happy about Blair's promise to go that they vote Yes! Yes! Yes! ;)

[D-Notice]

41. Hmm..

Not sure how reliable this is, but...

[muriel_volestrangler]

42. I think "completely made up" describes that website well

"The PressEsc exit poll of voters" - oh yeah, that well-known polling organisation PressEsc - or the well-known PressEsc media group, with its resources capable of carrying out a meaningful poll?

It's probably written by some student after he comes home from the pub.

[D-Notice]

43. Fair enough, how about these?

Blackburn - Jack Straw

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/tm_objectid=15486025&method=full&siteid=89488&headline=begg-seat-poll-probe-name_page.html">Aberdeen West

[LeftishBrit]

45. Sounds like someone's dream!!!

Mine too, actually. To see Tony lose his seat to Keys would have been sweet indeed!

[vota]

46. Update on Bethnal Green & Bow / General comment on UK election

I posted this on an old thread, then realised that probably no-one would see it, so am repeating it here with additional material (hope that's not too sinful a breach of site rules):

Bethnal Green & Bow
Galloway won by a narrow margin, and Oona King, who supported Blair, is out. See
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/html/47.stm
The Conservative, Shahagir Faruk, was pushed down into third place and came well behind.

You can listen to the candidates debating before the election at
http://www.bbc.co.uk/london/news/general_election/bethnalgreen_debate.shtml
It's a pretty lively debate!

During the debate, a member of the audience said that local Muslims had actually invited Galloway to contend the seat, after dissatisfaction with Oona King's pro-war stance. If so, it seems that Muslims took a smart and very pragmatic approach to politics. They deliberately chose a non-Bangladeshi and non-Muslim to front their campaign, in order to attract voters from other ethnic groups including the English.

The decision to choose a candidate from the hard left also attracted support from Labour activists, who are normally to the left of Labour voters. I heard that an election campaign organizer who normally works for the Labour Party switched his allegiance to the Respect coalition, placing his skills at the disposal of the their campaign.

Respect campaign literature was of a very high standard. Indeed, the Respect campaign generally seemed very well organized. When I went to vote at around 8 am, the only 'tellers' at the Polling Station that I visited were two Bangladeshis supporting Respect. They were polite, smiling and neatly dressed.

At lunchtime on the day after the election, the chanting coming from the local mosque sounded particularly cheerful!

Saturday 7th May (today): Amidst loads of hooting and cheering, the shiny Respect campaign bus, complete with its portrait of Blair (altered to give him a 'Pinnochio' nose), toured my estate. I think some of the young people have got a lot of fun out of the campaign, and it all helps to promote social cohesion as people from the different ethnic groups campaign side by side.

Stories about dodgy postal voting (about which Respect had complained) have appeared in the local press.

At a national level, the Labour majority has been reduced from 161 to about 66 seats in the House Of Commons. This makes it very unlikely that Blair would support Bush, if Bush decided to attack Iran, because some Labour MPs would be certain to rebel, and Blair would lose his majority. A further measure of safety could be provided if Chancellor Gordon Brown were to replace Blair, as Brown is known to be cautious and methodical by nature.