GRAPH: NATIONAL EXIT POLL WEIGHTED BY CHARACTERISTIC

[TruthIsAll]

You want weights?

I'll give you weights.



Note: Don't be misled. The graph depicts the weighted Kerry, Bush Nader, et al, results based on the exit poll categories and corresponding percentages.

The key point is this: There is CONFIRMATION across ALL characteristics.

The data is here. This is for the FIRST 11,000 (80%) polled, BEFORE the remaining 2000, which was contaminated with "votes".

http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

THE DATA CONSISTENCY ACROSS THE CATEGORIES CONFIRMS WHAT WE ALL NOW KNOW TO BE TRUE:

************* KERRY WON ****************

Now, let's Get On With It!

Go, Conyers! Go Senate!

See post #7 for the poll data.

[The Gigmeister]

1. What is that graph supposed to be saying?

[Darkhawk32]

2. It's saying that there isn't a subset of people that the Repukes...

can hang there hat on and say "Well gee, that's why we won."

[The Gigmeister]

4. Well then, it's phony.

We didn't carry the military or the religious.

Yet another misleading statistic post. These really don't help us.

[TruthIsAll]

7. You don't understand what is being displayed. Look here.

		HORIZONTAL			WEIGHTED		
PARTYID	Vertical	Bush	Kerry	Nader	Bush	Kerry	Nader
Dem    	     38%	9%	90%	1%	3.4%	34.2%	0.4%
Repub 	     36%	92%	7%	0%	33.1%	2.5%	0.0%
Indep 	      26%	45%	52%	2%	11.7%	13.5%	0.5%

	       100%				48.2%	50.2%	0.9%
							
IDEOLOGY							
Liberal 	22%	12%	86%	1%	2.6%	18.9%	0.2%
Moderate 	45%	41%	57%	1%	18.5%	25.7%	0.5%
Conserv 	33%	82%	16%	1%	27.1%	5.3%	0.3%

	      100%				48.2%	49.9%	1.0%
							
RELIGION							
Protestant	53%	56%	43%	1%	29.7%	22.8%	0.5%
Catholic 	27%	49%	50%	1%	13.2%	13.5%	0.3%
Jewish	          3%	23%	77%	0%	0.7%	2.3%	0.0%
Other 	          7%	20%	75%	4%	1.4%	5.3%	0.3%
None 	         11%	29%	70%	1%	3.2%	7.7%	0.1%

	     100%				48.2%	51.6%	1.2%

							
MILITARY							
Yes 	      18%	55%	43%	1%	9.9%	7.7%	0.2%
No 	      82%	46%	53%	1%	37.7%	43.5%	0.8%

	      100%				47.6%	51.2%	1.0%
						

[davidgmills]

25. TIA the Baiman report has found a CNN presidential screen shot from 12:23

Has 13,000+ voters. NO significant change from the 11,000 earlier sample.

See it here: http://helpamericarecount.org/PopularVotePaper181_1.pdf

It is shown on Exhibit A on last page of document

[Darkhawk32]

8. I don't believe Military means "In the military right now" per se..

but rather those with military experience. Veterans.

I can believe Vietnam vets going with Kerry in a big way.

As for religion, don't forget that white Christians aren't the only religious people in this country. I think a lot of people seem to forget that.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

18. Military vote means exactly that

does not mean "grandpa who used to be in the military" means active military.

[Darkhawk32]

28. Ok listen....

The question the pollster asks you is either "Any military experience?" or "Are you in the military right now?" Really doesn't matter.

About 80%+ of the people said "NO"...

A majority of those who said "NO" voted for Kerry.


About 12+% of the people said "YES"

A majority of those who said "YES" voted for Bush.


Kerry's margin overrode Bush's margin within that one particular question.

It's not really a matter of "Did the military vote for Bush or not?", more than it is a question based upon the characteristics of the voters on that one subject.

I know, clear as mud eh?

[Brundle_Fly]

10. and you know this because....

FOX or CNN told you.

this is based on the exit polls, so these people were asked, and this represents there social position and ideologies.

I doubt Bush would carry the military vote, and I have a hard time believing he'd carry the religious vote either.

[The Gigmeister]

11. Common sense tells me.

And I don't care what CNN and FOX say.

[davidgmills]

21. Bush Won the military vote

But he lost the non-military vote. Only 18% of the voters claimed to be military; 82% said they were not. The whole category is called military because it apparently asked about military service.

Bush won 55% of the military vote; Kerry won 53% of the non- military vote; Kerry won the category because the non-military vote was much larger.

[Darkhawk32]

31. Bingo! n/t

[Idioteque]

22. That doesn't mean we carried the military or religious...

It means that although military voted for Bush, they only make up 18% so when you weight it out, Kerry wins.

[TruthIsAll]

17. See post #7 for the polling data breakdown (for several categories).

tia

[shiina]

3. kick

[tx_dem41]

5. This graph is confusing.....what do the categories mean?

For example "GENDER". Are these the results for Male or Female?

[Darkhawk32]

13. Male vs. Female weighted by how many of them voted...

For example: Let's assume 1000 voters...

60%(600) of the voters were women, 40%(400) were men....

Of the 600 women(60%), 55%(330) of them voted for Kerry, 45%(270) of them voted for Bush.

Of the 400(40%) women, 52%(208) of them voted for Bush, 48%(192) of them voted for Kerry.


Ok, so far we know Kerry got 330 women and 192 men.
And we know Bush got 270 women and 208 men.

Kerry: 330 + 192 = 522 total
Bush: 270 + 208 = 478 total

Kerry received (522/1000)% of the vote or 52.2%
Bush received (478/1000)% of the vote or 47.8%

So therefore, Kerry won the "Gender" subset.

I hope that cleared it up a bit better.

[tx_dem41]

16. Yes and post #7 helped as well, Thanks. n/t

[davidgmills]

14. Both combined

[DELUSIONAL]

6. WOW -- so obvious when numbers are turned into pictures!

Kerry WON

Someone please Fax this to our spineless Democrats in Washington D.C.

[tx_dem41]

9. Obvious if you understand what the graph means...

:eyes:

[tridim]

12. What a stunning graph

You're awesome TIA.

Just for giggles, you should make that same graph with a "Fraud" charactersitic on the far right.

[Darkhawk32]

15. TIA - please stop me if I'm misrepresenting something...n/t

[TruthIsAll]

20. You were right on the money. Thanks. n/t

tia

[tx_dem41]

19. What is the source for these numbers? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

24. The National Exit Poll. See the relevant recent posts .

tia.

[tx_dem41]

23. Where did the weight modeling come from? n/t

[TruthIsAll]

27. CNN.com The 7:30 exit polls 11,000 of the 13,047

tia

[tx_dem41]

29. I know I'm late to the game here, so bear with me...

CNN's exit poll on their website now is for 13,660 respondents and their weighting (and their results) is a bit different than what you show. And the difference ends up with very different results than are shown in the graph.

Can you explain?

[meatsack]

32. There the weighted poll results

CNN adjusted them after the 'official' result was known so the exit polls data reflected the result more closely.

[tx_dem41]

33. Wow....how do you know this? n/t

[meatsack]

36. screenshots

During the night some smart people took screenshots of cnn's pages.
Wikipedia

[TruthIsAll]

34. Don't look at that contaminated chart. Look at this.

http://www.exitpollz.org/CNN_national2.htm

[tx_dem41]

35. Thanks....

I notice that this was posted at 7:42 ET. The polls in the West were not closed then. Was no exit polling done after this time, and I wonder how this might skew results?

[TruthIsAll]

30. The data on SCOOP

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/pdfs/Mitofsky4zonedata/

[meatsack]

26. If I'm reading this right

TIA is showing that there is something wrong intenrally with the exit polls. As the totals after each weighted category should reach the same vote %'s.

In case I'm not explaining it well, 100% of respondents were either male or female, just as 100% of the respondents either were or weren't in the military. Weighing them correctly, both totals should equal eachother, in this case they don't.

This is probably just due to someone lopping off some decimal points or there being different sample sizes for each question. It still should be answered though.