Florida Precinct (Liberty) has 666.7% Voter Turnout WTF!! Part 2

[adolfo]

Calculations are based on total registered per party. The data is taken from the Liberty Supervisor Of Elections Web site.

You can't blame it on Dixiecrats this time.

Go to:
http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Liberty

Liberty SOE
http://libertyelections.com/voterstats.cfm


I'd appreciate it if anyone can independently verify the results.

[Liberty Belle]

1. Kick!

[Melissa G]

2. kick!

[prodigal_green]

3. 666?

could it be...satan?

[kitkat65]

4. ROTFLMAO

:evilgrin:

[Fiona]

5. I'm not getting it

they had 1997 voters.

They had 4074 registered voters.

That's a 49% turnout by my calculations. What am I missing?

edit, as noted below, I forgot to carry the one :)

2997 votes out of 4074, is, indeed, 73%

[adolfo]

8. Which precinct?

Which precinct are you talking about?

Registered Voters:

http://libertyelections.com/pdf/gen04%20precinctsummarybookclose.pdf

[Fiona]

11. Sorry, I was looking at the whole county....

Precinct       Registered      Actual Voters      Turnout
Rock Bluff      716             166                 38%
Annex           535             216                 40%
Bristol        1034             176                 17%
Lake Mystic    2170             429                 20%
Hosford        1306             335                 25%
Telogia        1262             312                 25%
Sumatra         266              78                 29%
Orange          334              77                 23%


Note:  These numbers are only for actual voting day turnout,
not early or absentee voting.

So again, what am I missing?  Which precinct had 666% turnout?

[adolfo]

15. Table

Bush/Republican Votes Only

"1 - Rock Bluff" 33 votes out of 13 registered Reps
"2 - Annex" 120 votes out of 34 registered Reps
"3 - Bristol" 135 votes out of 59 registered Reps
"4 - Lake Mystic" 327 votes out of 98 registered Reps
"5 - Hosford" 240 votes out of 49 registered Reps
"6 - Telogia" 199 votes out of 39 registered Reps
"7 - Sumatra" 60 votes out of 9 registered Reps
"8 - Orange" 35 votes out of 20 registered Reps

[Fiona]

16. as pointed out below

you've wasted my time. You don't seem to know what "turnout" means.

[KatieB]

6. Kick

[expatriot]

7. umm.... more like a 73% turnout

registration: 4,074
votes: 1070 Kerry + 1927 Bush = 2997

2997/4074= 73%

[adolfo]

9. Explanation

Precinct #7 has 666.7% more Republican votes (Bush) than the total registered Republicans.

Here is the formula:

(candidate votes)/(registered voters in party) * 100

[Fiona]

13. Where are you getting that?

Precint 7 is Sumatra.

It had 78 votes, out of a registered base of 266.

[rdmccur]

10. I went to those sites.

I don't understand what you're referring to? Where are the percentages in parentheses coming from? Looks to me like each precinct has fewer total votes than registered voters?

[adolfo]

12. over 6x more votes than total Registered Republicans

I think having 6x more Rep votes(Bush)than the registered Republican voters for a precinct is significant.

[Fiona]

14. oh for heavens sake

that is NOT turnout. Thanks for wasting our time.

Yes, Florida registered dems vote heavily republican.

And please don't post stuff like this until you know what the word "turnout" means.

[adolfo]

17. Apology

% = Percentage of Registered voters in same party. I'm sorry if this was misleading to you.

Here is an article on the Dixiecrat theory:

In Dixie County, with 9,676 registered voters, 77.5% of them Democrats and a mere 15% registered as Republicans, only 1,959 people voted for Kerry, but 4,433 voted for Bush.

The pattern repeats over and over again - but only in the counties where optical scanners were used. Franklin County, 77.3% registered Democrats, went 58.5% for Bush. Holmes County, 72.7% registered Democrats, went 77.25% for Bush.

Yet in the touch-screen counties, where investigators may have been more vigorously looking for such anomalies, high percentages of registered Democrats generally equaled high percentages of votes for Kerry. (I had earlier reported that county size was a variable – this turns out not to be the case. Just the use of touch-screens versus optical scanners.)

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1106-30.htm

[Fiona]

18. If you had a link to an analysis

why not post it in the original post? Why make me calculate percentages from two different places to disprove your mistaken headline?

[adolfo]

20. Mistaken?

There is a time limitation on editing posts.

The turnout is based on the candidate's votes and the total registered voters in the same party. It works great as a method to isolate problems.

The post was request to verify. No one is forcing you.

[Fiona]

23. sigh

you said a precinct had 666% turnout.

That means 666% of the registered voters in that precinct voted.

So I scanned the numbers and saw nothing of the sort. Then I broke out the calculator and calculated the numbers for each precinct. And again, saw nothing wrong.

No, you didn't force me. You asked for verification. I tried to verify, only to learn that YOU don't know the terminology involved.

And yes, your headline was mistaken. Blatantly so. Turnout is calculated as a percentage of either registered voters or eligible voters. It is NOT a percentage of a particular party's voters. Turnout merely means people who vote - not HOW they vote.

This whole thread was a waste of time.

[rdmccur]

19. Now I see what you're getting at.

There were scatter plots on the Florida counties done way back in early November I remember seeing that showed the deviations away from 'expected' votes based on party registration. It showed some revealing trends, some of which were questionable (based on type of vote count equipment used, e.g. optical scan). I don't recall the specifics.

[rdmccur]

21. The plots are in a link within the link you posted:

http://ustogether.org/election04/FloridaDataStats.htm

[adolfo]

26. Thanks

rdmccur,

Thanks for the link.

[jsamuel]

22. Really old and Really wrong... THIS IS MISINFORMATION!!!

No offence, but this is the crap that gets debunked in 2 seconds and gives us a bad name.

[adolfo]

25. Debunk This

I will choose my words carefully next time. "Turnout" was the wrong word , other alternatives will be used.

Just trying to point out an anomaly, not misinform others. If you take a look at precincts in other counties they fall well within range of the total registered in same party.

Here is an axample of Leon County which is right NEXT to Liberty. How can you explain the significant difference between them?

Leon County:

http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Leon

(note: mutli-precincts are at 0% since the totals are not inputted yet.)

-Dixiecrats my ass.

[rdmccur]

27. What are the demographics of

these two counties?

[adolfo]

29. Demographics

You can get the numbers in CSV format by clicking on "View Raw Data". It has the registered voters (Dems,Reps) and votes (Kerry, Bush)for each corresponding precinct. Let me know if you are seeking other demographic information.

Leon County:
http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Leon

Liberty County:
http://www.recountflorida.com/ivrs_precincts.php?county=Liberty

[Lil]

24. A formula some colleagues used in FL 2000. Liberty & Baker were suspect..

G/(G+B) = constant1 x Spoiled/(G+B) + constant2 x G/N + random error

Another way to look at it, temporarily ignoring the random error, is

G = c1 x Spoiled votes + c2 x (G+B) x G/N

**********************************************************

This Castor:Kerry and Martinez:Bush is relevant to formula - if we know the #spoiled votes.

Precincts...............1....2....3.....4....5....6....7....8.. Early ABS Total

Bush/Cheney - REP 33 120 135 327 240 199 60 35 548 230 1927
Kerry/Edwards - DEM 133 96 41 102 95 113 18 42 304 126 1070


Mel Martinez - REP 24 95 101 275 182 122 39 27 421 162 1448
Betty Castor - DEM 130 114 72 138 152 172 37 50 412 182 1459

(stats from the County site)

[rdmccur]

28. What are the values

of constants c1 and c2 from 2000?
What would be expected to see in 2004 vs 2000?
I would believe that based on the latest pre-election polling and the exit polls that Kerry was doing a little better than Gore in Florida
(and Gore really did win Florida). It may be that voter suppression in 2004 was more efficient than in 2000 (which may have diminished Kerry's performance a small amount, but almost certainly not down to the level of the vote 'count'). Of couse this is all fairly speculative but the Berkeley study supports this speculation (as does Freeman's). If you (adolfo) come up with something substantiative, I hope you will send it to Conyers. Never know when missing pieces of the puzzle will all of a sudden fit together to make a 'smoking gun' (or better).