CNN exit polls - now all back AS THEY WERE on Election Night !

[bruised]

At least they are if you click here
http://www.exitpollz.org/Nat_P.html

It looks and works just like CNN
1/ Select any State (below SEARCH FOR EXIT POLLS)
2/ click on GO

If you like it then please post the link on other boards too.
That way it will come up in Google searches - It all helps to get more people aware of the election issue.

PS I don't post much - but I am impressed with the detailed work being done on the raw data. Suggestions about what to add to our site are welcome. Keep it up TIA and the rest of you.

[bruised]

1. Feedback

It there anyone out there ?

[TruthIsAll]

13. NOW WE CAN CONFIRM THESE STATISTICS WHICH SHOW KERRY WON..

		NATIONAL EXIT POLL TIMELINE SUMMARY STATISTICS						
		
	2-Nov		2-Nov		3-Nov		3-Nov
      4:00pm		7:33pm		12:22am	       1:25pm

Respondents
	8349		11027		13047		13660	

Kerry precentages
Votes in millions						

CATEGORY    Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote	Pct	Vote

GENDER    50.48	61.72	50.78	62.08	50.78	62.08   47.78   58.42
REGION    50.61	61.88	50.84	62.16	50.84	62.16   48.24   58.98
PARTYID   50.62	61.89	50.24	61.42	50.69	61.97	47.89	58.55
IDEOLOGY  50.30	61.50	50.07	61.22	49.85	60.95	47.25	57.77
VOTED2000 51.01	62.36	50.90	62.23	51.41	62.85	48.48	59.27

DECIDED   51.18	62.57	51.42	62.87	51.23	62.63   47.50	58.07
EDUCATION 50.32	61.52	50.34	61.55	50.21	61.39	47.82	58.46
RACE	  50.79	62.10	51.04	62.40	50.94	62.28	47.81	58.45
AGE	  50.44	61.67	50.53	61.78	50.53	61.78	47.96	58.64
INCOME	  51.45	62.90	51.01	62.36	51.01   62.36   48.13	58.84

RELIGION  50.82	62.13	50.85	62.17	50.85	62.17	47.99	58.67
MILITARY  50.38	61.59	51.20	62.60	51.20	62.60	48.38	59.15

AVERAGE	  50.70	61.99	50.77	62.07	50.80	62.10	47.94	58.61

.........................................................
          NATIONAL EXIT POLL PROBABILITIES 
	KERRY POLL DEVIATION TO 48.28% VOTE						
							
	11/2/2004	11/2/2004	11/3/2004	11/3/2004
	3:59pm		7:33pm		12:22am		1:25pm
Respon	8349		11027		13047		13660
							
MoE	1.07%		0.93%		0.86%		0.84%
StDev	0.55%		0.48%		0.44%		0.43%
Kerry%	50.70%		50.77%		50.80%		47.94%

Prob	0.000487%	0.000008%	0.00000043%	94.05%
1 in	205,180		11,781,646	233,712,012	1

Prob = 1-NORMDIST(Kerry%,0.4828,StDev,TRUE)

.......................................................

            STATE POLLING ANALYSIS
 PRE-ELECTION POLLS VS. EXIT POLLS VS. FINAL VOTE

The weighted national pre-election poll average (50.51%)
matched the exit poll average (50.37%). 
That's 1/7 of one percent.

Total percentages are based on the weighted average.
Kerry's actual 2-party vote: 48.76% = 59028/121056

Votes and percentages are 2-party based.
Vote percentages are shown for Kerry. 
Bush% = 100 - Kerry%.

Pre: final pre-election state poll average.
Exit: exit poll 2-party percentages based on data downloaded
by Simon at 12:22am Nov.3.

P/A = 100*Pre/Actual
E/A = 100*Exit/Actual

Prob: Probability of deviation
P/A Prob = pre-election poll to actual 
E/A Prob = exit poll to actual 

Based on the pre-election polls:  
41 out of 51 states (incl DC) deviated to Bush
Based on the exit polls:  
43 out of 51 deviated to Bush

								Pre/	Exit/	Prob	Prob	Favor	Favor
	Vote	Pre	Exit	Act	Pre	Exit	Act	Act	Act	P/A	E/A	Pre	Exit

Total	121056	50.37%	50.51%	48.76%	60979	61144	59028	103.3%	103.6%	14.1%	12.2%	41B	43B

				
AK	302	34.48%	40.14%	36.77%	104	121	111	94%	109%	6.3%	1.2%	K	B
AL	1870	40.63%	41.08%	37.10%	760	768	694	109%	111%	0.9%	0.4%	B	B
AR	1043	50.00%	46.60%	45.07%	522	486	470	111%	103%	0.1%	15.4%	B	B
AZ	1998	47.37%	46.93%	44.72%	946	938	894	106%	105%	3.9%	7.1%	B	B
CA	12255	53.85%	55.73%	55.04%	6599	6830	6745	98%	101%	21.3%	32.3%	K	B

CO	2103	49.47%	49.07%	47.63%	1040	1032	1002	104%	103%	11.0%	16.9%	B	B
CT	1551	55.32%	58.47%	55.27%	858	907	857	100%	106%	48.8%	1.6%	B	B
DC	224	87.64%	91.63%	90.52%	197	205	203	97%	101%	2.7%	22.9%	K	B
DE	372	54.22%	58.44%	53.83%	202	217	200	101%	109%	39.9%	0.1%	B	B
FL	7548	51.55%	49.93%	47.48%	3891	3769	3584	109%	105%	0.3%	5.1%	B	B

GA	3280	44.68%	43.11%	41.65%	1466	1414	1366	107%	104%	2.2%	16.5%	B	B
HI	426	50.00%	53.32%	54.40%	213	227	232	92%	98%	0.2%	23.5%	K	K
IA	1494	53.19%	50.67%	49.66%	795	757	742	107%	102%	0.9%	25.0%	B	B
ID	590	33.71%	33.33%	30.68%	199	197	181	110%	109%	2.2%	3.8%	B	B
IL	5239	56.25%	57.13%	55.21%	2947	2993	2892	102%	103%	24.3%	10.0%	B	B

IN	2448	40.21%	40.97%	39.58%	984	1003	969	102%	104%	33.7%	17.7%	B	B
KS	1171	38.14%	34.60%	37.13%	447	405	435	103%	93%	25.0%	4.6%	B	K
KY	1782	41.05%	40.76%	39.99%	732	726	713	103%	102%	24.0%	30.6%	B	B
LA	1922	45.45%	44.50%	42.67%	874	855	820	107%	104%	3.2%	11.2%	B	B
MA	2875	70.33%	66.46%	62.74%	2022	1911	1804	112%	106%	0.0%	0.7%	B	B

MD	2359	55.67%	57.04%	56.57%	1313	1346	1334	98%	101%	27.5%	37.6%	K	B
ME	727	56.18%	54.83%	54.58%	408	399	397	103%	100%	14.4%	43.4%	B	B
MI	4793	53.61%	52.55%	51.73%	2569	2519	2479	104%	102%	10.5%	29.1%	B	B
MN	2792	54.17%	54.61%	51.76%	1512	1525	1445	105%	106%	5.4%	2.9%	B	B
MO	2715	47.31%	47.47%	46.38%	1284	1289	1259	102%	102%	26.7%	23.3%	B	B

MS	1130	45.16%	43.20%	40.49%	511	488	458	112%	107%	0.1%	3.6%	B	B
MT	440	38.71%	39.28%	39.50%	170	173	174	98%	99%	70.1%	44.2%	K	K
NC	3487	48.45%	47.31%	43.76%	1690	1650	1526	111%	108%	0.1%	0.9%	B	B
ND	308	38.89%	33.58%	36.09%	120	103	111	108%	93%	3.1%	4.7%	B	K
NE	767	34.41%	36.54%	33.15%	264	280	254	104%	110%	20.1%	1.2%	B	B

NH	672	50.00%	55.49%	50.69%	336	373	341	99%	109%	32.3%	0.1%	K	B
NJ	3581	54.35%	56.13%	53.37%	1946	2010	1911	102%	105%	25.7%	3.3%	B	B
NM	748	50.00%	51.34%	49.60%	374	384	371	101%	104%	39.5%	12.3%	B	B
NV	816	50.00%	50.66%	48.68%	408	413	397	103%	104%	19.0%	9.4%	B	B
NY	7277	59.38%	63.97%	59.29%	4321	4655	4314	100%	108%	47.7%	0.1%	B	B

OH	5599	51.55%	52.06%	48.94%	2886	2915	2740	105%	106%	4.1%	1.9%	B	B
OK	1464	31.46%	34.73%	34.43%	461	508	504	91%	101%	2.4%	42.1%	K	B
OR	1810	53.19%	51.22%	52.11%	963	927	943	102%	98%	23.5%	27.8%	B	K
PA	5732	52.63%	54.41%	51.26%	3017	3119	2938	103%	106%	18.0%	1.8%	B	B
RI	429	60.87%	64.24%	60.58%	261	275	260	100%	106%	42.3%	0.7%	B	B

SC	1600	43.30%	45.78%	41.36%	693	732	662	105%	111%	9.9%	0.2%	B	B
SD	382	44.68%	37.42%	39.09%	171	143	149	114%	96%	0.0%	13.3%	B	K
TN	2421	48.98%	41.15%	42.81%	1186	996	1036	114%	96%	0.0%	13.4%	B	K
TX	7360	38.54%	36.84%	38.49%	2837	2711	2833	100%	96%	48.6%	13.5%	B	K
UT	905	25.81%	29.93%	26.65%	234	271	241	97%	112%	28.6%	1.4%	K	B

VA	3172	47.96%	47.96%	45.87%	1521	1521	1455	105%	105%	8.1%	8.1%	B	B
VT	305	56.99%	65.69%	60.30%	174	201	184	95%	109%	1.4%	0.0%	K	B
WA	2815	54.17%	55.07%	53.65%	1525	1550	1510	101%	103%	36.4%	17.2%	B	B
WI	2968	53.68%	50.21%	50.19%	1593	1490	1490	107%	100%	1.0%	49.4%	B	B
WV	750	48.42%	45.19%	43.52%	363	339	327	111%	104%	0.1%	13.2%	B	B
WY	238	30.85%	32.07%	29.69%	74	76	71	104%	108%	21.9%	5.6%	B	B
													
Avg	121056	48.57%	48.84%	47.09%	60979	61144	59028	103.4%	103.8%	16.3%	9.7%	B	B
Median		50.00%	49.07%	47.48%				102.7%	103.9%	4.6%	9.4%	B	B


	

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

2. Media Won't Cover

Nobody outside those who know what happened, and are disturbed by it....really cares. The media doesn't. The democrats don't. The repubs obviously don't. And the american public is more concerned with michael jackson.

Even if Shrub gets up there with a computer and shows how he manipulated the votes, it still won't matter. I have been looking at this board since November, and nothing has changed. Democracy is dead in this country, and anybody who says it isn't, is stupid.

[bruised]

3. You are right - but there's still some hope unless we all give up.

[Pacifist Patriot]

8. I feel like that from time to time, BUT...

I have seen promising activity that does not appear on this board. It may be hard to see it since we are all preaching to the choir here, but I am definitely seeing previously skeptical people jumping on board.

[TruthIsAll]

16. They must have seen this...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x363627

[corbett]

24. We Have To Make Them Care

You're right but there remains a small but tireless group of people working to bring the truth to light. We owe it to them to keep pressing. For my part, I've donated money to each of those groups and have maintained my boycott of CNN's television channels and websites religiously.

[Misunderestimator]

4. They should give us the stats on other elections where it was off 2.7%

The above exit poll data weighted Male/Female 46/54% gives Kerry 0.3% to 51.2%, Bush 47.3% to 48.2%

NEP now states the weighted National exit poll showed : Kerry 51% Bush 48%

THE DECLARED RESULT: Kerry 48.3%, Bush 50.7%
Discrepancy with the exit poll - 2.7% + 2.7%


I doubt that they would find many.

[emcguffie]

5. Please don't give up. Progress is happening now! n/t

[mpmusicny]

6. The money question...

...who would do this, and why?

[electropop]

7. Wow! Thanks!

I'm going to add a link to it on my theft page. Can you tell me where the data came from?

[bruised]

21. The data comes from a variety of sources.

In fact exitpollz.org has been compiling as much original exit poll data as it could get it's hands on ever since the election.
But it is fair to say that at least 80% is from a certain
Jonathon Simon -who had the sense to print out masses of opinion polls from CNN on election night. He must have had a premonition of what was about to happen!
The link "more data from this poll (pdf") which appear on the right for most States is in fact a scan of his printout for that State.
You can contact Jonathon and thank him on [e-mail].

[TruthIsAll]

9. HERE'S A THREAD COMPARING PRE& EXIT POLLS TO ACTUALS

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=203&topic_id=330449

[MontageOfFreedom]

15. Good job TruthIsAll.

That would mean the reluctant bush responder theory looks to be destroyed, there is no other way to explain the answers to those questions. Nobody shall give up, and nobody shall surrender. John Conyers is leading the charge in America and the world is waking up.

[Coexist]

10. kicked and nominated

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

11. Honesty

The sad thing, is that all this time is being spent trying to correct something which should be legitimate. The depressing reality is that at the very least, our country should be honorable, and democratic. So many other problems beyond our control, and our leaders are fraudulent, corrupt SOB's, intent on destroying something which has taken 230 years to create. It's a shame the world works this way. If there is truly a higher being, how could he not be looking down with disgust at what he has wrought.

[newscott]

12. Great work!

Keep it up.

[snowbear]

14. Those numbers in Ohio are incredibly sad to look at..

2000 - elected by the U.S. Senate
2004 - elected by DieBold

:cry:

[FreepFryer]

17. Don't you mean, elected by the U.S. Supreme Court? (specifically Scalia)

[snowbear]

18. oops..

yup, I did mean that.. :blush:

Thanks.. :hug:

[Griffy]

19. SCROLL DOWN .. why no breakdown listed on "Count vote Accurately"..

and the "how things are going in Iraq" question... the breakdown is all zeros! So it sounds like 83% think the vote count is accurate, but those are people that think it is very.. and SOMEWHAT accurate!

Keep working ppl.. writing letters, talking to friends, passing out info! The facts are leaking out day by day....

[bruised]

22. Yes, some replies appear as 0%.

As you can see the poll was published on CNN with the replies
to 4 questions all set to zero. If you click the link on the right marked "See the full NEP version of this poll (pdf)" -which was released at the end of January- you can see percentages for these questions.
I am not sure why the data was originally release with these answers to these questions set 0%. But personally having looked carefully at the questions concerned - I don't think it adds up to much.

[Griffy]

20. This is from the CNN site.. its not the same?! (click link and compare)

so CNN hasn't changed there numbers.. and in fact on the page there is a "link" that says.. "Computer Tampering Ruled Out" but if you click on it.. nothing!!! Someday they will hold the truth or be out of business!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

[bruised]

23. Well spotted - post it on other sites.