DU thread Thanks to Eomer and MelissaB!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x369344Ohio Exit Polls 'Not a Smoking Gun' for Fraud, Study Says
MIAMI, May 14 /PRNewswire/ -- A just released analysis confirms pollster
Warren Mitofsky's assertion that the exit polls that put John Kerry ahead of
George Bush in Ohio on Election Day 2004 do not necessarily indicate that
there was fraud in the Ohio election.
Exit polls estimated that Senator John Kerry was leading for Ohio's
electoral votes, but not by a large enough margin to be called the winner. Had
he won Ohio, he would have won the Presidency. However, the official result
was a victory for President George W. Bush. The discrepancy between the polls
and the results gave rise to widespread accusations of systematic election
fraud.
The new study, commissioned by the Election Science Institute (ESI), was
presented on Saturday at the annual conference of the American Association for
Public Opinion Research in Miami. It looked at the results of the exit polls,
which were conducted by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International, and
compared them to official results from 2004 and 2000.
The research team, led by Dr. Fritz Scheuren, used more detailed
information from the exit polls than previous studies. The team was able to
use this precinct-level information while preserving ballot secrecy at a local
level. "The more detailed information allowed us to see that voting patterns were
consistent with past results and consistent with exit poll results across
precincts. It looks more like Bush voters were refusing to participate and
less like systematic fraud," Dr. Scheuren said.
snip
The paper is being presented at AAPOR 2005's Saturday lunch plenary. The
conference is at the Fontainebleau Hilton Resort, 4441 Collins Ave, Miami. See
http://www.aapor.org. For more information on the Election Science Institute, see
http://www.electionscience.org.http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/05-14-2005/0003610125&EDATE=