11/02 ELECTION MODEL: DO YOU BELIEVE IT NOW?

[TruthIsAll]

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[bush_is_wacko]

1. I've beleived all along

but what do we do about it? No one seems to be willing to say what's black is black, you know?

[Paradise]

2. Of course it was stolen!

Does anyone here doubt it?

Thanks TIA! :yourock:

[RaulVB]

3. I do believe in those results!

Because they are the real ones.

[smartvoter]

4. We might know each other.

Is your first name John?

[TruthIsAll]

12. No. n/t

.

[merh]

5. Is Nov 1, 2004 really the last time you updated?

I like the site! Thanks again for all of your work!

[TruthIsAll]

10. See the date on the screen? That's the TRUTH. n/t

.

[merh]

13. okay thanks.

[Avalux]

6. I've believed it all along

no chance the boy king won fair and square. You have done great work, TruthIsAll. :toast:

[whistle]

7. Well, it is a computer model isn't it and a simulation model . . .

. . . at that. I would be very interested in viewing the parameters and the various other structural features of the model that provide the basis for the actual simulations, then compare those to the recorded events of the election outcome to see where each differ from one another. Similarly by feeding in the updated information from the actual election, does the model duplicate the election results (i.e. where parameters used included historic 2000 precinct by precinct results and exit poll data compared to the new revised parameters). It would be another piece in the puzzle as to what happened this election.

[TruthIsAll]

8. Here is the model with the exit polls used as input.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=1363177

The program consists of two models:
1. State polling electoral vote simulation model: calculates expected EV and probability of a win based on simulated EV's (5000 trials).

2. 18 National Poll Average Model: calculates the probability of a popular vote majority.

In the final projection, I assumed a base case 75% allocation of undecided/other votes to Kerry. Prior to this, I used 60% as the base case. I used a range of allocations for sensitivity analysis, in order to determine the effects of the undecided vote on Kerry's win probability, popular and electoral vote.

Kerry won this thing. Of that, I have not a shred of doubt.

[whistle]

9. Thanks I missed that post, you did very good work . . .

. . . have you sent these to John Kerry's campaign manager?

[TruthIsAll]

11. No. Why do you ask? n/t

.

[New Earth]

14. truth is all, how do you all this stuff?

my brain shuts off when it comes to numbers. how did you come up with all this?

[TruthIsAll]

20. I am very experienced in math modeling. Expert in Excel.

Just copy and paste the data into Excel, set up the formulas and graphs and there you go.

[VDHark]

27. ain't that da truth(isall)

easee 4 u, defficult 4 meee.

[IndyPriest]

16. Because...

I don't know why whistle asked. But I think you've done way passed yeoman's work on this stuff, and somebody in the Kerry campaign needs to know about it. Besides Freeman's paper and the Berkeley report, your stuff is what keeps me hopeful that somehow some real light will shine on this sordid mess. However the Madsen story plays out, and whenever Bev Harris' work pans out, your stuff keeps the FACT before the pubic NOW that there's been some SERIOUS shit happening in this country. Keeping that fact front and center keeps the investigation moving forward when the hope of people like me starts to flag.

[whistle]

19. Just out of interest, I would think the candidate might respond

[TruthIsAll]

21. Respond? Really? I'm sure Kerry's people keep him fully informed.

They KNOW better than anyone here what went down. They've been involved in many elections. They know Bush. They know what he and Rove are capable of. They know which states were stolen and which were just padded.

If they don't know all this, they are too stupid to govern.

The next move is up to Kerry and Edwards and the Democratic party.
The media is waiting for them also. I'm sure they WANT this story.

It's very juicy.

[whistle]

24. Juicy enough collaboration on a book, write to political writers. . .

. . . who can be trusted to push this through. You've done the leg work and could be a great resource to Gore Vidal for example. If he would not want to actually author another Bush bashing book, I'll bet he would provide support and direction. There are others out there. Bev Harris, network. Go for it!

[jsascj]

15. So how in the heck

Do you get this information out?

And to whom do you send it who might be listened to and believed?

Knowing this and yet not seeing all over the news every night is infuriating!!

[Terre]

18. This is EXACTLY what I think . . .

Everytime I see information/stats that lends credence to election fraud.

Print out all the applicable pages and send USPS Next Day Delivery to anyone involved in the actual Ohio Recount. Forget emails that makes it necessary for someone to link to it - assuming they're even sitting at a computer when it arrives.

Stick it right underneath their noses, and force them to OPEN IT.

If you need help with USPS costs, let me know.

[TruthIsAll]

23. Go right ahead. Copy the posts and send 'em out.

I'll stick to posting, not mailing.

tia

[TruthIsAll]

22. There are others on DU (althecat, Eloriel, etc) who know how to

collect and disseminate data. That's not my purview.

I crunch numbers and write.

Bev Harris, God Bush and Cheney et al do the hard work.

[bleever]

17. One highlight here: without FL & OH, Kerry still 75% likely to win.

Hence the importance of Iowa, New Mexico, Missouri, and Colorado.

But I think the legacy here, in the long view, was that they stole too big.

And that they misunderestimated those who use the internets.

[VDHark]

25. Election 2004

You were right all along,,, "all those years ago"...

[ailsagirl]

26. Are you the person who put that wonderful website together??

I was always so cheered when I went to it.

Fantastic job!!