What are the odds?

[AlecBGreen]

I want to share a story about something that happened to me. For the believers here, I hope this is just one more example of the glory & mystery of God. To the nonbelievers, I hope this might give you some insight on why I believe in God. Things like this arent the ONLY reason I believe in God but it is an example of something that strengthens my belief. Take it how you will; regardless, I think its pretty neat!

A few weeks ago I was driving to church and for some reason I was being really down on myself; thinking of my shortcomings, things left undone, etc. I have come to realize that 1) I am prone to getting down on myself like this and 2) it serves little purpose and is self destructive. As I was trying to break myself out of this mental pit I had put myself in, a verse from Scripture came to mind "Therefore, since we are surrounded by such a great cloud of witnesses, let us throw off everything that hinders and the sin that so easily entangles, and let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us." (Hebrews 12:1). I felt much better and kept driving.

Twenty minutes later I arrived at "church." Since we are a new group just forming, we still meet in people's homes, barns, etc. This week our service was being held in our pastors new house he and his family just rented out. Sometimes before we start I like to flip through the Bible and prepare myself by reading & praying. Well I flipped open the Bible and what was the very first verse my eyes fell on? The same one that came to mind on my drive: Hebrews 12:1! I laughed internally & thought to myself, "How crazy is that!?"

The service started and it was a good one. The atmosphere is hard to verbalize, but it was encouraging & uplifting with lots of great fellowship. In short its like an hour-long vacation for my soul. We gave thanks for what we had received, we prayed for what we needed, we asked God to strengthen our determination to help the less fortunate. There was a lot of WONDERFUL singing (my old church and I myself are horribly tone deaf ;) ). Finally the time for the pastor's sermon came around. Of all the passages in the Bible to choose from, guess what was the focus of the sermon? Hebrews 12:1! At that point I literally laughed out loud and said to myself, "Are you kidding me!? OK OK I get the message..."

So whats the point? Well, what are the odds this was all by chance? Since there are 31,102 verses in the Bible, the odds that this one verse showed up is one out of 967 million! (31,102 squared bc I can pick any random verse, then the odds that it shows up AGAIN is 1:31102 and the odds it shows up again are 1:31102*31102). Like I say, take it for what you will; Ill take it as another sign to give thanks to God for giving me exactly what I needed when I needed it.

[trotsky]

1. Not trying to piss in your cornflakes...

but this is how a skeptical mind looks at things:

How many verses in the bible are even sermon-worthy? Certainly NOT 31,102. You need to narrow your subset for your stats, first of all.

How many times were you getting ready for church and thought of a DIFFERENT verse than what was discussed or sermonized about? (This is called confirmation bias, BTW. You disregard those FAR more common incidents in favor of the coincidence.)

And I hope you don't mind here, but this is always the first thing that comes to my mind when someone relates a little "miracle" story like yours: at any given moment on this planet there are oh, several MILLION children who are starving. Hundreds, maybe thousands of women being raped. Hundreds, maybe thousands of innocent people being murdered. Children being horribly abused. Elderly people wasting away unloved. Untold numbers of people being hurt or killed in accidents. Evidently these millions of people aren't worth any attention from your god, but YOU are special enough for it to flip a few pages of a book for you? Nice.

[AlecBGreen]

2. no worries Trotsky

thats why I posted this! To get yalls opinions. If I didnt want to hear counter arguments Id never leave the house.

"How many verses in the bible are even sermon-worthy? Certainly NOT 31,102." Yes, that did occur to me. Its kind of hard to justify a half-hour sermon on the length, bredth & width of Solomon's Temple.

"How many times were you getting ready for church and thought of a DIFFERENT verse than what was discussed or sermonized about? Actually not often at all because verses so rarely pop into my head. Thats why it was noteworthy to me. This is something I would like to change because there are many that give me comfort in tough times.

(This is called confirmation bias, BTW. You disregard those FAR more common incidents in favor of the coincidence.)" I hear ya on this. I think we all do this to some extent, some more than others (conservatives far more than liberals IMO). More specifically, I think we (humans) tend to ignore that which goes counter to what we believe and instead spend more time looking for and justifying experiences which reinforce what we believe. (Is that what could be happening now? Yes, absolutely) Often it takes something so traumatic, paradigm-shifting, in-your-face to get us to change out outlook. Personally, this tendency has increased as I get older (im 30 in a few weeks).

As to the last paragraph, a few things: #1) I dont consider this a miracle. "True" miracles are something I have difficulty defining. I consider it a fortunate coincidence for lack of better words. In some ways its analogous to my mom leaving a six-pack for me in the fridge when she knows Ill be watching their farm when they are away. I consider it loving foresight on God's part. #2) There are many, MANY people suffering on this planet. I trust (and I know we disagree here) that it is a part of "Gods Plan." That said, I am called to do what I can to help alleviate that suffering, to comfort the afflicted, and to seek the good in all situations. Furthermore I believe these people are worthy of God's attention, and have it.

[trotsky]

4. You may not consider it a miracle...

but you apparently do consider it evidence of your god's interaction with the world to benefit you personally. (Which is all a "miracle" really is.) And quite honestly, any god whose plan entails pointing out some words in a book to one person, but allowing millions of innocent people to suffer terribly every day is most certainly NOT a god worthy of worship, admiration, or even modest respect. The "God's Plan" cop-out makes your god look like even more of a monster.

[AlecBGreen]

8. .

"The "God's Plan" cop-out makes your god look like even more of a monster." Im sorry you see it that way. I believe that "in all things, God's works for the good of those who love Him." Does that mean that God only bestows blessings on believers and causes suffering to those who dont believe? NO! I take it to mean that if you acknowledge the existence of and seek to follow God, you will realize that EVERYTHING which happens to you can be for good. Elie Wiesel is a fantastic example of this.

[trotsky]

13. Which is just a worse philosophy.

"...you will realize that EVERYTHING which happens to you can be for good"

But it's not. Elie Wiesel is a fantastic example because he is the EXCEPTION, not the rule. The vast majority of people who suffered, suffered pointlessly - their cries and pleas completely and totally unanswered by this simplistic, Sunday School, petty, indifferent god that you have envisioned.

However since it took time out of its busy day of ignoring billions of requests to direct your attention to some words in a book, I guess it's an OK kind of deity. What a swell dude.

[AlecBGreen]

15. but we can choose Trotsky!

when anything happens to you, you have the choice to decide how you will respond. Wiesel, stuck in one of the wickedest situations mankind has ever wrought on itself, CHOSE to grow from this and to not lose himself in despair. Do we not all have that same choice?

[trotsky]

17. A woman being raped can CHOOSE to just lie back and enjoy it!

Of course! How could I have been so blind? :sarcasm:

What you are doing here is absolutely despicable - you are blaming the victim, essentially telling them that they just didn't ask god in the right way or failed personally to transform their tragedies into triumphs. If only they had *chosen* to turn the bad into good! Pity they didn't, oh well, it's their fault! Certainly not your god's fault, right?

NO. We don't all have that same choice. Not everyone gets the opportunity, or the good fortune, to survive their tribulation - let alone have their survival be twisted into some grotesque tribute to your personal god. And I wonder how Elie Wiesel appreciates being used as "evidence" of the power of the Christian god.

[AlecBGreen]

18. i dont know if you are confused or deliberately misunderstanding

this is the sole point I have been trying to make

1) we cannot always choose what happens to us

2) we CAN to a large extent choose how we respond to what happens to us.

We can let traumatic experiences cripple us psychologically & spiritually or we can confront our grief and try to move on. I try to never judge someone for how they respond to adversity. All I can do is offer support and encouragement.

If you disagree, fine. I dont see how its hard to accept, but if you disagree, OK.

"Not everyone gets the opportunity, or the good fortune, to survive their tribulation..." True. I could offer my perspective on how that fits it with what I believe but Im not sure you would appreciate continued dialogue on this topic.

"I wonder how Elie Wiesel appreciates being used as "evidence" of the power of the Christian god." That would depend on whether or not he believes in God. A quick google turned up a quote where he mentions his "Jewishness" but wether that is strictly cultural and not a belief system I do not know. If he IS a practicing Jewish man, I would guess he would have no problem with someone discussing his life in such a way that it brings glory to God.

It seems like we are running over the same old ground here. If you'd like to reply Ill read it, and if you have questions Ill answer, but Im going to leave it alone after that.

[trotsky]

19. And you are confused, or don't understand...

that the world is far more complex than your Sunday School theology can handle. So when confronted with its nastier bits, you respond predictably by blaming the victim, and telling me I just don't get it - or just can't appreciate it.

BTW, you completely missed the point of using a Jewish survivor of the Holocaust to promote your Christian god.

[darkstar3]

3. Do you believe that in this world there are such things as coincidences or accidents?

I ask because I grew up as a believer, and everyone around me followed the same idea that such things were actually just manifestations of God's plan.

[AlecBGreen]

9. no I do not

I use the phrase "what a coincidence" all the time but if pressed I will admit that there are no coincidences. According to my understanding everything is predetermined. Yet still, paradoxically, i believe we have free will. I am faced with daily decisions and I must make choices and live with the consequences, yet God has known since the beginning what choices I would follow. While some may declare then that I DO NOT have free will, I choose to see it otherwise.

On a side note the field of quantum mechanics and its declarations of probability and uncertainty blows my mind. As Neils Bohr said, "If quantum mechanics hasn't profoundly shocked you, you haven't understood it yet."

[darkstar3]

11. I'm not surprised.

During the time of my life when I was one of the faithful, the words "coincidence", "accident", and many more were all synonymous with "God's plan." This is one of the foundational differences between belief and non-belief. As an atheist I now think that there IS such a thing as coincidence, and that accidents DO happen.

And here is my point: My fellow atheists, for the most part, share my view on coincidences. Asking those who don't believe as you do to see this story as an example of why you believe in God serves only to confuse people about the depth of your beliefs, because we see only coincidence.

[cleanhippie]

24. How do you reconcile that?

If you believe everything is predetermined, yet we have free will, how do you reconcile that, as I fail to see how you can have both.

[trotsky]

25. Easy.

As the Catholic Church has shown us, it doesn't matter how blatantly contradictory two (or more!) concepts are - all you do is slap on the label "Mystery!" (don't forget the capital M!) and voilà - it's no longer a bit of ridiculous nonsense, it's a KEY CORNERSTONE OF YOUR FAITH and PROOF of the power of god. Why, just admire the lovely weave on the emperor's new clothes - you CAN see them, can't you?

[Jim__]

5. I can't disagree with what makes the world a better place for you.

But, I do question your computation of the odds. The odds of a winning lottery ticket are trivial to compute, the odds of an event involving human minds much more difficlut. First, the odds of 1/31102 as the chance of opening your bible to the 2 pages that contain this verse and then looking at the first verse at the beginning of a chapter seem to be a quite high estimate. Second, the odds of you and your pastor focusing on the same verse do seem to be extremely high and make me wonder if that verse were mentioned somewhere and you both caught sight of it. Maybe not, but it's the type of suspicion that it's difficult to disprove.

People who believe as you do, will probably see what you see in this event. People who see the world differently, will see this event differently. I don't think there's very much we can do about that.

[DerekG]

6. Embrace and savor it, man

Atheist I may be, I'm no killjoy.

Laugh heartily and bask in awe.

[AlecBGreen]

10. those are my lifelong goals

"Laugh heartily and bask in awe." Enjoy every minute of this life, the good and the bad, give thanks for what Ive got, and just smile smile smile. :hi: Thanks for the good wishes Derek

[dimbear]

7. This is likely to cause jealousy in those other religions which

don't have any miracles.

[DeadEyeDyck]

12. An excellent segue for my last post for

a while. See how many can guess why?

[Iggo]

23. Easy.

But I'm a metal head.

[MorningGlow]

14. Serendipity

It's a great thing! Love it when stuff like this happens--your own personal message/boost from God/the Universe/the Great Is, whatever you want to call it. Enjoy! :hi:

[AlecBGreen]

16. :)

:hi: :bounce: :party: :toast:

[laconicsax]

20. I know exactly what you mean!

Just yesterday, laconicspouse and I were talking about how bullshit religion is and within five minutes we walked past some guy on a box preaching from the Bible with one of those "the end is near" signs.

We took it as a sign from Atheismo and sacrificed a newly baptized baby to him as soon as we got home.

[AlecBGreen]

21. aHA!!!!

so Atheism IS a religion and you worship Atheismo! Im glad we finally got that cleared up :) Could you post a thread and let everyone know?

[laconicsax]

22. Umm...

[ImOnlySleeping]

26. odds

The odds are still 1 in 31,102 that the two random events would be the same. That it would be that specific verse would be in more astronomical odds, but that would require a blind observer selecting the verse at random without your knowledge and confiming post-fact. Of course statistics are the kind of thing that make people start questioning religion, so don't give it too much thought.

[LAGC]

27. Or maybe you're just psychic.

I think I'd buy in to that sooner than I'd buy into "God done it."

[AlecBGreen]

28. Grandma calls it "The Shine"

lets just say you need to stay away from Chinatown and anybody named "Dale" for the next two weeks. TRUST ME...

[Evoman]

29. You get a bible verse, and I get a car hitting me and breaking my arm.

God is an asshole.

[trotsky]

30. We only get what gawd knows we can handle.

And you are one tough mo-fo.

[Evoman]

33. True, besides, I like physio and I needed something to weaken me

to the point I couldn't lift shit.

If I had stayed tough, I mighta back handed the lord across the face and farted on his throne.

Also, broken a seal and blown a trumpet, cuz that's the way I roll.

[laconicsax]

31. God must really hate you.

Out of all the human bones in the world (roughly 6.7 billion people in the world, each with over 200 bones) what are the odds that you'd break a single bone in your arm (I hope it was only one bone for your sake)?

The only plausible explanation is that God really hates you.

[Evoman]

34. No, God tried hard, but I'm too fucking tough.

A broken arm was my way of saying nice try. I didn't want to hurt his feelings.

On edit: two bones, actually...have to work that into the odds, lol.

[laconicsax]

35. I'm sure that narcissistic asshole appreciates the effort. n/t

[Evoman]

37. Ha ha.

It's hard to appreciate a gesture, when you don't exist.

You rock, laconisax.

But I wish your name was laconisox so that last sentence would have rhymed.

[AlecBGreen]

32. When did that happen?

are you ok? What happened?

[Evoman]

36. Meh.

Three months ago. Car hit me, broke my arm, wrecked up my face quite a bit. Ambulance came. Still in physio.

I'm not letting it get me down, since there are a lot of people worse off than me. Of course, it was incredibly unnessecary to teach me this lesson, since I learned it all those other times bad things happened to me, but not so bad I couldn't point out some other motherfucker whose off worse than me.

It's not people like me that this "god is so great" shit should offend. It's the other fuckers who are relearning to walk, and cry everytime they have to go to physio because they're in so much pain. And I can't look past their pain enough to be thankful to your jerk off god that I didn't get it worse.