Gay-union initiative may aid McCain

[Omaha Steve]

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/politics/20080622-9999-1n22samepol.html

By John Marelius and Bill Ainsworth
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITERS

June 22, 2008

The raging battle over same-sex marriage in California could create some intriguing dynamics in the presidential election.

If nothing else, the fall fight over a constitutional amendment to overturn the California Supreme Court's decision legalizing same-sex marriage guarantees attention to an issue that otherwise would likely have been dwarfed by the economy and foreign policy.

Some analysts contend that the November ballot measure could boost Republican presidential nominee John McCain, who trails Democrat Barack Obama in California by 17 points, according to the latest Field Poll.

Sen. McCain, they argue, could be helped if the same-sex marriage initiative lures conservatives who are unenthusiastic about his candidacy to the polls.

“The social conservatives that were probably turning out for Bush anyway in 2004 have real doubts about McCain,” said John Dinan, a political science professor at Wake Forest University in North Carolina. “And it's possible that this issue, in California and all across the country, that it does have the effect of bringing people to the polls despite their doubts about McCain.”

Eleven states had same-sex marriage bans on the November 2004 ballot. All passed by wide margins. Whether they contributed to President Bush's narrow re-election victory is widely debated.

FULL story at link.

[ben_meyers]

1. Thats the whole reason it's there.

Eleven states had same-sex marriage bans on the November 2004 ballot. All passed by wide margins.
is the answer.

[customerserviceguy]

2. On the other hand

since Senator Obama leads in California, and is quite likely to continue doing so, his voters will just tell the fundies to fuck themselves along with McCain. A lot has changed in this country in the last half dozen years, even since 2004. The last round of anti-marriage equality actually lost a battle in that round. Arizona (the last state to get an official MLK holiday) turned the fundies down, and there are a hell of a lot of Mormons in that state.

I'm not even sure that there will be enough valid signatures to get this on the fall ballot in CA. I'd worry much more about Florida, they have a discriminatory amendment on this fall's ballot, and there are tons of Jaysus freaks down there. Florida's not going to be the cliffhanger it was in 2000, that's why Senator Obama is smart to take the fight to the live-and-let-live states in the Mountain West to broaden the Democratic Party base.

[rox63]

3. I wonder if the non-effects of same-sex marriage on their lives might keep them home

By November, it will occur to some folks, who would have supported the ban, that it has had no measurable effect on their lives. If they notice that the sky hasn't fallen, they may just stay home. Since same-sex marriage became legal in Massachusetts, a lot of the folks who opposed it have recognized that it hasn't affected their lives at all. So even though they don't like it, it doesn't matter to them much anymore.

[mitchtv]

9. I met at least three more couples at a party tonite who are getting married

and I expect this is going on all over the state. The political implications are not lost on anyone. These bonds will be legal and it will take some fancy leagal footwork to invalidate them all

[customerserviceguy]

10. I certainly hope

that marriage equality will lead gay and lesbian people to come out to a wider circle of acquaintances, I'd venture to guess that about half of the people who are intolerant are under the mistaken impression that they don't know a person with a non-heterosexual orientation. That will make more fundies just go away than anything else.

[Zuiderelle]

4. And here it goes again. Hopefully this time, democrats won't turn on their own.

[MNBrewer]

5. gays have nowhere else to turn, remember?

We're "expendable" to the democrats.

[Zuiderelle]

6. I truly hope not this time.

I may seem cynical, but I'm an eternal optimist at heart.

[TechBear_Seattle]

7. The perennial story: BLAME THE GAYS!

If it weren't for gay people, the Republican Party would not exist. :eyes:

[MNBrewer]

8. well, actually, wasn't it black people?

back when the party stood for liberty and progress? :) back in the 1850s?

[Ms. Toad]

11. Yeah, but remember that they used up that tactic in 2004

in the crucial states (like Ohio). Not much more they can use us for in Ohio, since they already have both a statute and an amendment.

Not to say it won't be incredibly painful in states where they do use it - just that it won't have quite the national impact it did in 2004.

[Zuiderelle]

13. Good point. You can't go to that particular well of bigotry more than once.

:thumbsup:

[terrya]

12. There is no reason why Obama should lose California.

I don't think it's going to work this time. And I'm optimistic that the amendment in California will be defeated.