4 deaths in Japan not tied to shots: panel says

[HuckleB]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/story/2011/03/08/japan-vaccine.html

"There's no direct link between two vaccines that help prevent meningitis and pneumonia and the deaths of four children in Japan, a panel of medical experts says.

The Japanese panelists will continue to do more checks, Kyodo news agency reported Tuesday.

The two vaccines are Pfizer's Prevnar 7 and Sanofi-Aventis's ActHib, which protect against bacterial infections that can lead to meningitis and pneumonia.

Japan temporarily suspended use of the vaccines during the investigation. The experts' findings mean Japan will likely return to using the vaccines, Dow Jones reported.

..."

-----------------------------------


Just FYI...

[inademv]

1. Just another thing for McCarthy drones to ignore n/t

[cleanhippie]

2. Thats good news, but the pseudoscience gang will just ignore it.

[HuckleB]

5. But they've taken the time to unrec it!

:rofl:

[mhatrw]

3. Update: Suspension will continue, more study needed

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/08/japan-vaccine-idUSL3E7E816R20110308

Japan's health ministry said on Tuesday it would continue suspending the use of vaccines made by Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and Sanofi-Aventis SA (SASY.PA) that prevent meningitis and pneumonia, after a meeting of an expert panel.

The ministry halted the use of the vaccines in response to the deaths of four children shortly after receiving the vaccines.

The expert panel found no clear direct link between the vaccines and the deaths but said further studies were needed, Kyodo news agency said. A health ministry official said the suspension would continue but declined to comment further.

[HuckleB]

4. Japan's Vaccine Problem

http://pediatrics.about.com/b/2011/03/08/japans-vaccine-problem.htm

"Japan has a vaccine problem.

No, there isn't anything wrong the Prevnar or ActHIB vaccines that they are using. They have temporarily suspended these vaccines since last week after reports of four deaths in children, even though there was no direct casual relationship between the vaccines and the deaths. The children were of different ages (six months to two years), some had underlying medical problems, many received different combinations of vaccines, and many of the vaccines came from different lots.

Still, use of the vaccines was suspended until an expert panel could look into the issue, which has since said that they don't think the vaccines were connected to the deaths. Although they will likely resume use of the vaccines now, that still leaves a problem for those kids who missed their vaccines because of the suspension and the fear that was caused and which may linger and cause parents to not vaccinate their kids.

This is especially a problem in a country that is slow to add new vaccines and has an immunization schedule that resembles the 1983 immunization schedule from the CDC, with kids only getting DTaP, OPV, Measles and Rubella (2 doses), DT (11 Years). There are some differences between Japan's schedule and the 1983 schedule though. In 1983, the U.S. immunized kids against mumps (MMR vaccine) and we didn't give kids the BCG vaccine or the vaccine against Japanese Encephalitis, which are routinely used in Japan. And we weren't giving a booster dose of the measles vaccine yet. Japan started that in 2006, while we added that to our immunization schedule in 1994.

..."

[mhatrw]

6. I love the US editorial about how Japan does not vaccinate enough.

Japan has the fourth lowest infant mortality rate in the entire world, but our pediatric "experts" are lecturing them on their vaccine "problem."

[HuckleB]

7. Nice red herring.

That's what I've come to expect.

[mhatrw]

8. More than twice as many US children die by age one than Japanese children die by age 5!

3.3 of 1,000 Japanese kids dies by age five.

6.8 of 1,000 US kids dies by age one.

And our pediatricians are lecturing theirs. LOL.

[HuckleB]

9. And the red herring grows before our eyes!

:rofl: :silly: :crazy: :spray:

[mhatrw]

10. A higher percentage of Japanese kids make it to age 20 than US kids make it to age 1.

Japan has the highest life expectancy in the entire world.

Yet we lecture them because they don't vaccinate enough to please Big Pharma.

[HuckleB]

11. The red herring grows again, and it grows a BIG PHARMA twin!

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[varkam]

12. Shhh...I don't think they realize that mortality rates are a poor indicator here.

Let them dig themselves in deeper!

[mhatrw]

15. Then show us the better indicators.

Show us any indicators of any kind that suggest that the US's immunization schedule leads to a healthier overall population (or even healthier overall subpopulations) than does Japan's immunization schedule.

[varkam]

17. Once you understand that unhealthy is not the equivalent of dead, you'll be well on your way!

:hi:

[mhatrw]

18. Still looking for any indicators that suggest the Japan's current immunization

schedule is inferior to that of the United States.

Let us know when you come up with any!

[varkam]

20. Uh, I'm not going to do your work for you.

If you want to establish that Japan's vaccination schedule is fine-and-dandy, then the onus would be, um, on you to show that since that's what you're claiming and all. It's not my fault that you're using a crappy measure, but it's also not my job to find the correct figures for you to use (even assuming that they show what you hope they'll show).

[mhatrw]

24. Why is this up to me? I was defending the Japanese health system against a US indictment.

I'd say the fact that more American kids die by age one than Japanese kids die by age 21 is pretty compelling evidence that Japanese health officials must be doing something right, as well as pretty compelling evidence that US pediatricians should have better things to do than complain about the Japanese health care system.

If you wish to offer another superior measurement to demonstrate the folly of the gross measurement I selected, please feel free to do so. If not, please feel free to go away.

[Name removed]

26. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[HuckleB]

36. Not true.

The author of that piece is discussing Japan's vaccination program, not its entire health care system. The rate of measles in Japan is certainly worthy of criticism, for example. Yet, you pretend that he is somehow attacking Japan's entire health care system. That is simply a false assertion at best. Further, you are offering a logical fallacy by pretending that he has no right to offer such criticism simply because the US health care system has its own problems.

Game over.

[Confusious]

38. You're myopic

You're so invested in the vaccine bullshit that you can't even see another reason why more american children die before the age of one. I named one after finishing your sentence, which had nothing to do with vaccines and whether American or Japanese kids get more or less of.

[HuckleB]

16. I don't know if that's possible. -eom-

[HuckleB]

19. Wait!

Surely you're not insinuating that something like low birth weight (or, oh some other factors that someone could list) might be a much larger factor in infant mortality than vaccines, in this day and age?

I didn't think so.

[varkam]

21. No. Vaccines are the only relevant factor in infant mortality.

Pre-natal care or access to health care facilities and professionals have nothing to do with infant morality. It's all about vaccines.

[HuckleB]

22. I stand corrected. -eom-

[varkam]

23. Happy to be of service.

Also, magnets cure autism. The internet said so.

[Name removed]

25. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mhatrw]

13. Why don't you explain to me where the US's concern about

the so much healthier Japanese children is coming from if not from Big Pharma's propaganda and coffers?

Why don't we ever try to learn from our betters?

[HuckleB]

14. I don't play the red herring game.

You should know that by now.

[Confusious]

27. They have access to health care and big pharma drugs

For a low low price.

That's why they live longer. It's not the organic soy mystic healing.

[mhatrw]

28. And why are their big pharma prices lower than ours?

Our country is such a corporate whore.

[Confusious]

29. Because the government pays for the health care of it's citizens.

The government sets the prices it will pay.

[lumberjack_jeff]

32. +1

[HuckleB]

33. So you agree with a pointless red herring?

Cooooooool.

:eyes:

PS: Thanks for the unrec. (I know. I know. Must not let reality out in the big pretend world.) :rofl:

[lumberjack_jeff]

34. Yes. But definitions are always problematic.

It seems to me that the point of health care, including vaccinations, is improved health.

Only if we agree to the above logical framework can we accept the fundamental point; Japan's childhood health is vastly superior to ours. We have limited justification to criticize their vaccination practices.

If we don't agree on definitions - if you believe that vaccinations serve some other purpose, then I can accept that you might consider it a red herring.

Either way, I'm inclined to emulate a system which promotes better childhood health and disinclined to worry overmuch about your opinion.

[HuckleB]

35. You can push a red herring wherever you want to push it.

It's still a red herring.

Also, you've made it clear that you don't care much about actual evidence, so I'm not surprised that you don't care about my opinion.

[Tumbulu]

37. I know, it is ridiculous

and what we pay in healthcare costs is something like 4x's what they pay and the quality of their care is the best in the world?

[xchrom]

30. recommend

[HuckleB]

31. Deaths from vaccines in Japan?

http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2011/03/deaths_from_vaccines_in_japan.php

"Confusing correlation with causation. Post hoc ergo propter hoc. These are two of the most common errors human beings make. Indeed, they're natural errors that our brains appear hard-wired to make, and, without scientific training, it's virtually impossible to avoid making the conclusion that, because two occurrences correlate with each other they must be related or because and event precedes the onset of a condition (like autism), then that something must have caused that condition. One can see how, living in the wilderness, seeing patterns and causes quickly was likely to be beneficial more often than it was harmful, but in today's world, not so much. Worse, in coming to scientific conclusions, post hoc explanations and confusing correlation with causation, as natural as they feel and as convincing as they seem, all too often lead to leaping to conclusions that are utterly incorrect. The best example, of course, is the myth so prevalent in some segments of society that vaccines cause autism. Because we humans are so hard-wired to attribute cause to events that happen before an adverse event, all too often for parents who have come to believe it, belief in that myth is resistant to virtually all science. Indeed, even a few physicians who don't understand this normal human tendency and how science is the way to prevent it from leading us astray can become so passionately convinced that vaccines cause autism that they become in essence immune to science, evidence, and even reason.

...

In all likelihood, Offit says, the four deaths are likely to be sudden infant death syndrome or another cause; he says two of the children had serious underlying health conditions. Any time a large number of people are given a vaccine, some of them will get sick and die just by chance.

While this is true, and it is most likely that these deaths appear to be a tragic coincidence, I find it difficult to be too critical of the Japanese authorities and their response. Very likely they were behind the proverbial rock and a hard place when news of these deaths was revealed. Very likely, political pressure was difficult to resist. Whatever the reason, the investigation appears to have found no link between the vaccines and these deaths.

Science is hard. It involves collecting data, testing hypotheses, and determining whether the data are consistent with the hypotheses, not to mention careful observation. More importantly, I like to think of science as a rigorous, elaborate system of observation and hypothesis testing in order to try to remove bias and keep the investigator from fooling himself. As physicist Richard Feynman once said so famously, "The first principle is that you must not fool yourself - and you are the easiest person to fool." The difference between anti-vaccine advocates and other boosters of pseudoscience and real scientists is that anti-vaccine activists forget this principle. In fact, they deny that they can be fooled."


----------------------


Ah, reason. It's so nice to see!

[bemildred]

39. Japan reports sixth infant death after vaccination

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4764977

[cleanhippie]

40. And yet:"medical experts were unable to identify a specific link between the deaths and the vaccinne

So........

[bemildred]

41. Correlation is not causation, as they say.

On the other hand, correlation without any explanatory theory seems to be acceptable enough in other circumstances, or even transitive correlation, i.e. eggs have cholesterol and cholesterol has something to do with atherosclerosis, so cut back on the eggs. Another one is circumcision correlates with lower chance of getting AIDS, so all boys ought to be circumsized. But six cases doesn't amount to much, how many sick kids are there in any one day? How many kids die of disease, as opposed to violence or starvation or what have you?

[laconicsax]

42. WTF?

Genital mutilation may confer a slightly lower chance of contracting HIV, so break out the knives?