Does The Web Know Which TV Shows Will Be Hits?

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

ADWEEK 02/04/05

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Interpublic Group media agency Initiative believes that both (Fox's American) Dad and (NBC's The) Contender, debuting in the next two months, will be hits. What's the secret? With partners Trendum and TV Tracker.com, the agency has developed a new Internet research tool that it says can pick the winners in each season's crop of new network programs, about 95 percent of which fail each year, according to network estimates.

The tool, dubbed PropheSEE, combines three elements: technology from Trendum that monitors conversations in chat rooms, news groups and blogs; TV Tracker's data about program development, scheduling and ratings; and Initiative's analysis. The partners think it is so hot that they plan to sell it to broadcasters. But they will have competition. At least one other company is selling a similar tool--Toronto-based Brandimensions. Company COO Bradley Silver said most of his clients are Fortune 500 companies and include some broadcasters and ad agencies.

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Some outside the Initiative client base are more skeptical. Ad research consultant Erwin Effron dismisses such prediction techniques as ineffectual. "Change 'buzz' to 'chatter' and you have the CIA tracking al Qaeda, and you know how successful that's been," he quipped.

Competing agencies give PropheSEE and tools like it mixed grades. Said the head broadcast buyer at one top-10 media agency: "You can't predict hits and misses with panels. It has to do with the quality of the show, promotional activity, time period and pixie dust."

More: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=628&e=1&u=/adweek/20050204/ad_bpiaw/doesthewebknowwhichtvshowswillbehits