Survivor 20 Ep 4 "Tonight, We Make Our Move"

[lazarus]

Well, I didn't see that coming. I hate that Cirie is gone, but I love that JT is making moves. Cirie would have dropped him fast once Tom/Colby were gone.

I'm not sure where JT goes from here, though. Basically, you have Cirie/Amanda/Candice/James/Rupert on one side, and Tom/Colby on the other. JT goes with Tom/Colby, but that puts him in a three person alliance versus four people. Unless he can pull someone else in, he's just moved himself up the target list. I think he might be able to swing Rupert over, if Rupert is primarily aligned with him, and not the group. Or Cirie's departure may signal a free for all where all the alliances are shaken up and redone, which would be a blast to watch.

On the Villains' side, Coach caught Rob's crybabyitis. I can't believe he broke down crying because Sandra mildly called him out at TC. That lady has power.

And it's now blindingly obvious that Rob and Sandra are allied, which is just made of awesome. And Russhole appears to have dug his grave, which is even more awesome.

Loved the Villains' dominance at challenges. They did almost lose that Reward, and I wonder how close the IC really was. Rob had them flying through that maze, so I'm not sure how Tom got caught up so fast. I'll need to watch it again to figure that part out.

I still can't figure out the alliances on the Villains tribe. Is Rob playing Coach, or is he playing Parvati, who he appears to be in a six person alliance with (Parvati, Russhole, Courtney, Rob, Danielle, Sandra) He's also made gestures towards Coach, and there's some evidence that Tyson is in with Parvati (some of the scenes on CBS's website). I kinda wish we could be shown some of the alliances in flux, but MB seems to think that surprises at TC are all we want. Bleah. That's what I loved about Thailand, there were no real surprises on Brian's march to the win. You got to see it all laid out.

More thoughts once I've watched it again tomorrow.

[lazarus]

1. actually, another thought now

I was just reading on another board. Someone watched all the insider video that I haven't caught up with yet.

Apparently, Parvati gave a confessional that Rob/Sandra/Tyson/Courtney is the dominant alliance. This means Russhole/Parvati and Jerri/Coach are the floating dyads. Rob is apparently keeping Coach in the fold, sort of, which means, thankfully, that Russhole and Parvati are next on the chopping block. Hooray!

Oh, and the ladies in the house (and I agree with them) say that James should get oiled up for every challenge. Or even just hanging around camp. All the time, basically is what I'm saying. :)

[dr.strangelove]

3. I hope you are right

I'd like to see russell go, but I think he is the only one playing. I bet he sticks around.

[dr.strangelove]

2. Don't wear feathers in your hair at tribal.

OMG!! Last night's episode was awesome for so many reasons. My favorite part of the night has to be Tysen telling Coach not to wear feathers in your hair at Tribal. That and "Don’t tell your stories, no one believes your stories." That was epic. I was tearing up I was laughing so hard. Best moment of the season so far.

Laz, I think Cirie dug her grave when she picked the wrong alliance. She went from being in a position of power to be the odd man out. She should have stuck with Tom, Colby and Stephanie. the reason is simple, JT simply can;t be trusted. He plays the game for himself, but unlike you I don't think he has all that great a noggin. He does not see the whole board. I agree he did himself in last night. You don;t align from a power position to one with him as your leader. Cirie made a bad call and it cost her the game.

I suspect we are gonna see a huge shakeup. Either JT, Tom or Colby is toast first. They can't let that group of three stay together. I think Amanda, Candice, James and Rupert will unite for a vote, but JT was the glue holding that group together. I don;t see them sticking together for more than one vote. They all hate and distrust each other. Sadly, I think the heroes are toast as a group.

Law, you nialed the true person with the power on the villains' side, its Saundra. she is runnign that show and no one knows it. Rob and Russell are too concerned with each other and Parv to realize that Saunrda said that about coach for a reason. I'm also not so sure that Rob and Sandra are allied. Saundra is using him and he does not seem to know it yet. The person I can;t read is Jerry. she is way to smart not to already be in bed with someone and I don;t think its coach. If she and colby are around at the merge, watch out for them, Sadly I think Colby goes next.

The episode was great overall.

that was the sexiest challenge ever. Oiled survivors is the way to go. With my wife drooling over JAmes and Colby and me practically having a heart attack over amanda, it was a thing of beauty. My only complaint,l no oily parv. Jeff should have made them oil her up and stand there.

The idol will be huge, as last night showed. I agree with Russell for looking for it. Saundra is not dumb. Once Russell finds it and tells her he has it, she will work with him to surprise someone. the next big surprise will be an episode or two down the road when she has Russell use it on Rob. Thats what I am calling. I'm sure the villans will get rid of Courtney, who really needs to eat a cheeseburger or something, thats just too thin. After that, its ripe for a blindside. I see my favorite villan, Rob, being set up here. I never like it when MB shows someone that looks safe and in charge, it usually means they are next to go.

[FarPoint]

4. Why did Tom have to play the idol?

Did he jump too fast on it? I realize he was seen finding the idol.....Is there another idol on the villians camp turf?

[lazarus]

5. If Tom hadn't played the idol

odds are, he was gone. Or at least, there was, from his perspective, a good chance. The plan going in was a 3-3-2 vote targeting Colby and Tom. Tom wasn't sure JT would flip, so he had to play the idol to stay in the game. Even with JT flipping, the vote was 3-3-2, but instead it was split between Tom and Cirie.

In a revote, the vote would have been 4-2 against Tom, and he's out. Remember, in the revote the people originally getting votes can't vote. So Tom and Cirie are out. That leaves JT/Colby vs James/Rupert/Amanda/Candice. Tom's only chance in any event was playing the idol

Now the idol will be replaced at the Heroes camp. The Villains have only the one idol, and nobody's found it (that we've seen).

[FarPoint]

12. Thank you for the update...

O8)

[lazarus]

6. Cirie's big mistake

was not letting JT boot Candice. That led JT to realize he wasn't calling the shots at all in that alliance. When he saw how easily Cirie swayed the other 4, he had to know he was at the absolute bottom of that chain.

I see Candice flipping quickly; she follows the power, and JT/Tom/Colby have it now. The remaining 3, Amanda, Rupert, and James, are all horrible players who will simply flop around for a while, waiting to be booted.

Upon further reflection, JT did the best thing he could with the position he was in. He's at the very worst moved from 6th to 3rd, which isn't a bad move at all. He knows Tom wants to take a winner to F2/F3, so he's pretty solid there. The key is going to be surviving to the merge. JT sees the board just fine. He's got Coach and Tyson waiting for him, if everything goes pear shaped on the Heroes tribe.

Rob isn't concerned with Russell very much at all, IMO. And he's been clearly aligned with Sandra from the beginning. They bonded over sending Coach up a tree, remember? Last week, when Rob was introduced to the idea of voting out Parvati, the very first thing he did was go to Sandra for further discussion. Sandra is the one who decided to vote out Randy, instead. And this week, when Russell went off on his suicide mission, I mean, went to look for the HII, the very first thing Rob did was tell Sandra so she could go investigate.

Sandra won't work with Russell. They'll pull a split vote targeting Russell and Parvati if/when they go to TC. Courtney is too aligned right now to be a target. Remember, it's not about making the tribe stronger anymore. This is the new Survivor. It's all about surviving with a core that is tight and can cut a swath through the other tribe, or split up and integrate into the other tribe post merge and prevail that way. It's been that way since Cook Islands. Going into the merge with numbers just hasn't worked out very well for tribes lately.

Sandra may not go for the split solely because she has the (IMO opinion misguided) belief that the winners all have, that they can only beat another winner. That just won't apply this season, and I hope she realizes that. Parvati is too dangerous to allow anywhere near the merge. And Russell is too much of a loose cannon. Nobody knows anything about him, whether he won or not, what he did to warrant being a villain. The unknown quantity is a dangerous thing in Survivor. Better someone whose behaviour you can predict, which is pretty much everyone else this season (except JT, who is having fun being a villain on the Heroes tribe).

I still disagree with Rob's being classified a villain. He plays the game I would hope to play it if I magically became not disabled.

[dr.strangelove]

7. Candice

No way Candice flips to JT/Tom/Colby now. I call next week being the death of the JT/Tom/Colby group with one of them going home. Sadly for me, I think its Colby, whom I think is a very good player. He is the one I would get rid of. Also, Amanda is not a horrible player. she is maybe the best starter and worst finisher. She sees weakness and knows how to exploit it. I see her being the new glue in the foursome, but once Colby/tom/JT is gone next, I see them all breaking up. I agree that Rupert and James are all horrible players. Though James will go before Rupert because once James is not in a position of power he will become a nightmare.

JT did not do the best thing. He made a bad call in jumping on Cirie. He had to know he was in a position of weakness. I think at worst he moved to the next one evicted, though I suspect it will be Colby or Tom before him. His best chance now is if Colby or Tom is out, he can get in again. He probably won;t even make the merge at this rate.

I also think Rob is very concerned with Russell. And I know he thinks he is aligned with Sandra, but I don;t think she is aligned with him. She will use him and drop him like she did everyone else her season. I may be going out on a limb, but I think Saundra is in total control over there. She used Russell's search for the idol to her advantage. Rob is at his best when he thinks he is going home. He is at his worst when he feels safe. She is doing everything she can to make him feel safe so that she can pull the rug out from under him when she needs to. I think her comments at coach were there for a reason,. She is diverting attention from her scheming and focusing attention on the others. She has everyone looking at Russell and Coach right now. Thats how she won the last time. She is very good and I think everyone is underestimating her.

I also think Sandra will work with Russell once he gets the idol. that will be her chance for a blindside. I do agree that the first real threat that has to go is Russell or Parvati. but I can see Russell and Sandra workign together. Also, the villains are all smart. they know how to play. I doubt any of them expect Jerry would leave a group of villains after a merge. I call it now, avillain is going to win this thing, unless colby and tom can pull off a miracle, they are the only one's on that tribe who can win and one of them goes next in my mind.

I do agree with you that Sandra has the misguided belief that the winners have to take another winner. I hope this does not mean she takes Parv with her, because PArv is way too dangerous to keep. but she does look so fine in that bikini, so I want a few more weeks of her. Keeping Parv may be the undoing of all the villains. If she is around at the end, I'd vote for her.

I'm not sure how much the others know about Russell. did they get to see any of his episodes. It seems unfair if they did not. they started right after the other show ended filming. Did they show the others any of his episodes to be fair. I wonder.

[lazarus]

9. It started filming

this season started filming ten days after Samoa finished filming, so Russhole got no real break from play. Rumour (from Sugar, so grain of salt required) is that Parvati got some inside info on Russell's antics, but that's the extent of it. It's sort of an advantage, but then again, Russell has had no time to do schmoozing the way the rest of them do (apparently, a bunch of these people hang out at the same clubs in LA all the time).

The previews include this: (Jeff voiceover)Candice makes a game-changing move. (Candice voicover) I wanna work with Tom and Colby...

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=5OTQUbO1JXg1P0uAcp3kRMpLAATdQ2Wi&vs=homepage&play=true

She obviously goes on to say what, exactly, she's going to work with them on. Could be booting JT. Could be booting James, could be booting anybody. Heck, could be just fishing. Promo monkey have been known to mislead us, I dunno, every episode of every season ever. :evilgrin:

I don't see how JT could be making a bad move when he flipped from what you admit was a bad position, likely sixth, to an F2 alliance with Tom, or F3 at worst with Tom/Colby.

The Candice thing was, IMO, a ploy. He was testing to see if he or Cirie had the power in that alliance. When it was shown to him that Cirie was running things, he had to make his move. Cirie had too tight a grip on that alliance.

I agree that Sandra may not be in an F2 alliance with Rob, but I think she's more likely to work with Rob than with Russell. She may well fake being with Russell to blindside him, though. I do love her play style.

[Demit]

8. I thought Tyson was icky in his Survivor season, but I LURVED him last night.

I also would love to know what both Tyson & Rob were really thinking when Coach whinged & whined & sniffled on their shoulders. Yuck. I don't think I've seen anyone on Survivor who is less self-aware. He is one unhealthy dude. Tyson gave him such straightforward, helpful advice that I was surprised. But Coach, true to form, decides not to listen. I see we haven't had any Jerry & Coach cuddling scenes lately. Jerry must've wised up.

BTW, I enjoy reading both of your musings on strategy, dr. s and lazarus. I can never keep track of the strategy part, I'm so intrigued with the personalities. And just to give another feminine perspective, oily James didn't do a thing for me. He's obviously devoted a lot of time to building up his Greek god body, whoop-di-doo. But it hasn't given him any particular strength, speed or agility, has it? It's all for show. I'd rather watch a guy compete who may not have the muscles but who has a lot of heart instead.

[lazarus]

10. Tyson was neat

Then he goes and tells everyone else Coach is collapsing. Heh. "Don't wear the feather to tribal council." Priceless! I hadn't really noticed the Jerri/Coach thing fading away, but you're right. Of course, we got basically nothing from any of the Villain ladies this week.

Someone on another site said the dynamics of the Villains tribe seems to be that Rob is the Daddy, and Sandra is the Mommy. So when Tyson was giving Coach the pep talk, it didn't have much effect, but when Rob did it, Coach suddenly got to feeling all better. Except for whinging a little about how Rob only wanted to bond with him for challenges.

I agree that Coach may be the first person on Survivor with a true mental disorder. It's kinda sad and funny all at the same time.

Strategy has been what drew me to this game since about Marquesas. I found the personalities to be a bit grating at times. My favourites have all been people that most people dislike, but I found their strategies great: Hatch, Brian Heidik, Fairplay, Sandra, that sort of thing.

James' physical attributes tend to help him a lot in team challenges. Remember back to China, he was exceptional. He's not very good with puzzles, though, and challenges the past few seasons have been the physical first, puzzle second variety.

I think the two hottest guys out there are JT and Rob, and Jerri and Sandra are the hottest ladies. Then again, I'm like you, I like brains and heart.

[lazarus]

11. Update: Alliance on the Heroes tribe

According this secret scene:

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=K8LwOW9c6VLB7Gbp5U_aFQdukFKd9Nuh&vs=Default&play=true

The alliance is James/JT/Amanda/Rupert. Cirie and Candace were apparently floaters, with Tom/Colby on the outs. All JT did was take out a floater who was gaining too much power over his alliance. So I'm now predicting that Candace is going to flip to Tom and Colby, but it won't do any good, because JT is going to be able to repair whatever hurt feelings might be there amongst his original 4 person alliance.

Oh, and in a scene I don't have the URL for, Cirie said that Amanda and JT sleep together in the shelter every night. So, going by Rob's previous statement that that's how you tell who's aligned, JT/Amanda is the couple to watch out for.