A few explanations about the latest polls.

[Mass]

5 polls appeared this week:

2 (Time and Newsweek) ending Friday show a margin of 13 to 15 points.
3 (ABC, Pew, and USA Today) ending this week-end show a margin of 4 to 7 points for Democrats.

Of course, our concerned friends explain that this is the effect of the Kerry flop.

However, the two first polls were taken during and after the Kerry story as well as the 3 later ones. So this does not explain the difference.

However, the GOTV operation of the GOP started Friday, and it is probably that a large part of the reason why these polls are lower is the effect of this GOP GOTV.

[TayTay]

1. There are people who will lose this cycle.

They will try and blame the loss on others. Same old, same old. They will say this was the fault of the media, John Kerry, bad weather on election day, good weather on election day, lack of money, saturation media buys that turn people off and so much more.

It was ever thus.

[wisteria]

2. What people are blaming Kerry? n/t

[TayTay]

3. Because the media told them they could

It was, after all, in all the papers and all the smart people were saying it. :sarcasm:

It is bs.

[ProSense]

4. It's bogus spin

and unnecessary panic!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2930270&mesg_id=2930270

There are some real issues in these races that people didn't address with enough fight! Ford was swiftboated and more could have been done to attack Repubs to this point! Why is George Allen still in contention? He used a racists slur against a college student and Kerry criticism of Bush is spun into the biggest gaffe of the campaign.

These people are completely ridiculous!

[politicasista]

5. And yet people here are falling for it

Yes, it's all Kerry's fault, let's find a candidate that won't commit gaffes and errors. :grr: :sarcasm: :rant:

[beachmom]

7. Actually, worse. On Washington Week, they juxtaposed

M***** video and Kerry's gaffe. WTF? The Allen incident just got worse and worse where he came up with 3 explanations and endless apologies. Then came the parade of witnesses who said Allen used the N**** word, and that bizarre incident where he reacted so weirdly when confronted with his Jewish heritage. In contrast, Kerry's gaffe obviously was shown to be just a badly delivered Bush joke.

[Democrafty]

8. Thanks for bringing that up.

If Ford loses and people blame JK, we can't let them. Not because we should defend JK, (we should) but because the stupid disgusting racist ad that should NOT have been tolerated.

Same with George Allen. He's a travesty. If he keeps his Senate seat, there's something wrong with a lot of voters in VA.

[beachmom]

9. Um, the GOP has apparently jammed a Dem phone line(s) in

Hampton Roads to sabotage with robo calls. There's the cheating, dirty tricks aspect, too. At least in our area we're checking on the Diebold Machines. I'm just saying that it's not just the voters, but the shenanigans.

[Democrafty]

11. Yes, there are always dirty tricks.

I am just baffled that its even close.

[politicasista]

10. The problems are deeper than Kerry

His family was also a liablilty. His father, brother, uncle, and aunt have been arrested, accused of assault, lack of child support payments, cheating, and so on.

It makes me mad that people are saying his loss is Kerry's fault (the ignore list is phat unfortunately:-( )

Everyone that supported Harold (back when his father was in office) knew that his family was a target before the race even started. And the racial ad didn't help either.

[Democrafty]

12. Right, and what sucks is that

people are allowing themselves to think stuff like that even relates to what kind of Senator Ford might be.

The Bush family is just as bad. And yet, it produced two Presidents.

There was a lot of race hypocrisy going on way before the Kerry gaffe, and I think it's important for us to point that out whenver we can.

[politicasista]

13. Exactly n/t

[karynnj]

14. Not to mention as one of Mass's posts showed last week

his numbers fell in several polls well before the Kerry remark.

The other thing is it is not Kerry's mistake that was the problem, but that the media was faster than in 2004 to jump onto an explanation mot supported even by the words spoken - in spite of knowing Kerry's position. A decade ago, this would have been an inconsequential, flub - likely corrected (from the prepared remarks) if repeated at all in the press.

I remember the NYT expaining why they fixed the spoken comments of Bush I. Correcting the strange syntax and odd phrases (once he went off strangely invoking the words "Don't cry for me Argentina.) and conveying the meaning was considered fairer. (This was written as they mentioned how great it was to have a President who spoke like Clinton.)

This was an atypical Kerry speaking error - but it never said what the RW said it did and the media knows it.

[fedupinBushcountry]

15. There is a clip on C&Ls

with Cliff Schecter, and in that video they were talking about Ford and said his numbers started dropping when he confronted Corker at Corker's press conference, which happened before JK botched a joke.


http://www.crooksandliars.com/

[sandnsea]

6. I'll spin the opposite and I don't care

There are things where I'm an absolute stickler on truth and facts - speeches, legislation, policy, etc.

But when it comes to spin, I just really don't give a shit and this is just a bunch of political spin. We were doing great until the Clintons kicked Kerry out of the way and went on their wussy 'complete the mission' and 'the economy stupid' campaign. If they want to spin, I can too.

Personally, I think they manipulate the polls by choosing zip codes or prefixes so campaigns will keep paying billions to the media who pay for the polls...

[karynnj]

16. OK - this looks too good to be true

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/11/06/monday/index.html
Democrats up by 20??? in the generic ballot