Interesting statistics--and something to feel good about

[ginnyinWI]

From, of all people, George Will today in his column in my local paper. He was talking about how the Republicans will have an uphill battle this election. Dem affiliation now stands at 50% v.s. 36% for Repubs. Independents favor Dems by 18%. And to bolster his argument further, he talks about how close the last election was. I paraphrase:

Bush's 2.4 point margin of victory was the third-smallest in history for a re-elected president. (Woodrow Wilson and Bill Clinton's were smaller.) By contrast, the average margin of victory of the last 12 presidents was 12.9 points.

John Kerry's 48.3% was the largest ever against a sitting president. None had gotten over 46.1% before, and nine got less than 45%.

He also points out that Iowa turned red last time, but only by .67%--meaning that no Republican candidate can assume it will stay red, so they must be able to turn another now-blue state red to win as many states as Bush got--and that's a tall order given the attitude of voters now about how the country is doing.

Given these facts, the argument that JK is a big-time total loser like some on DU like to say just doesn't wash. Of course the bitter ones won't ever admit it, and will persist, even three years later, on repeating their grievances over and over in an endless loop. But here's a conservative who is willing to speak the truth about JK. Kind of interesting.

[politicasista]

1. If someone other than Kerry or someone but Kerry had endorsed

Obama or other candidates, there would be less snark than there was the last few days (i.e. Kerry being the kiss of death or poison to Obama). It is interesting to read the "loser" talk coming out of the woodwork.


Good stats, ginny! :hi:

[karynnj]

2. There are so many clues that that is not true

1) I have seen no Obama fans that I recognize overtly unhappy - many are thrilled.

2) I see many Edwards fans furious and using words like disloyal. The same people who thought every jab at Kerry made Edwards look better. I am mystified how ANYONE following JRE on the boards could think that Kerry owed him anything.

3) The most angry and affronted are the HRC fans. How could someone of Kerry's stature not support her. From accounts on Huff. Post, Bill Clinton himself lobbied Kerry to do so - twice. (I really hope this is true) It must have shocked the Clintons that they couldn't buy him with a promise.

(Put these three together - the ones who didn't get it - angry; the one who did happy.

4) Look at the high praise even from unexpected sources for his "This Week" appearance. He did an amazing job.

5) Look at the intensity of the Huffington Post comments. Some Clinton people have lost all semblence of sanity - a few calling a reprimand and a call to stop this negativity - swiftboating HRC. Gee, I wish the SBVT had said things like this about JK.
" want to emphasize that I think Hillary Clinton is a very talented and capable person. And if she is the nominee I'm going to work my heart out for her." Those people have lost their minds.

[Mass]

3. I have not seen that many Edwards's supporters saying that. I think they knew

he would not get it.

What I have seen though is many Hillary supporters claiming that he was disloyal to Edwards and that they are relieved he did not endorse her. Not sure how to combine the two claims together, but I guess I should not try to see a logic.

I have to say I rarely read Huffington Post comments as many seem to come from people off their meds.

[Noisy Democrat]

4. I have seen Edwards supporters losing it

and talking about disloyalty. It's not a pretty sight. And yeah, I wonder what planet they've been on for the last 3 years.

[politicasista]

6. He did well

Especially not letting Snuffy control the interview. My dad thought it was a bold move on his part to endorse Obama, especially to go against the Clintons.


I am supporting Obama, but I am hoping for the best because race baiting talk has me so disenchanted right now.







edit for clarity

[Vektor]

5. And that's without the truth added in!

...and all the votes ACTUALLY counted.

Pretty impressive stats, even WITH Diebold's slant taken into consideration.

[ginnyinWI]

10. oh absolutely!

That goes without saying: we in this group are agreed on that point--many thousands of votes were no doubt switched or destroyed.

[JI7]

7. but Clinton is such a winner

also, Clinton got less percent of votes in his first run than Gore and Kerry got in their first.

Clinton got less than 50 percent both times.

Clinton also had advantages such as focus being on economy and not national security which is the area Democrats are weakest in.

[ladym55]

8. It's good to be reminded about this

I think it's too bad that we get wrapped up in other people's talking points that have no basis in reality and then those talking points become "reality." The reality is that Kerry ran a good campaign and he had so many things going against him it wasn't funny--and that's not including all the shady things with the election. The Republicans were dominant forces in so many states, and in some states, the Dems were in total disarray. Kerry did a great job. That's what we all need to remember and ignore all the whining snarks.

[fedupinBushcountry]

9. Ditto

to everything you said.

[ginnyinWI]

11. Hopefully Dean has been able to improve the Dem party.

His 50 state strategy, etc. seems to be paying off. The Dem party in 2003-04 was pretty much in disarray. I remember post after post in this forum right after the election complaining that Kerry and his campaign had had to do it all--that there was so little infrastructure there for them. Like in my red-leaning county here in SE Wisconsin, we didn't even have a Dem party HQ--they finally started one in early 2004--but it was just too little too late. We canvassed and called, but I don't think had much of an impact on the ground.

[kerrygoddess]

12. Flashback to '04

http://www.thedemocraticdaily.com/whatitsworth.mp3

Thought you all might like to hear this again and remember when... :)

[Luftmensch067]

13. Thanks for posting that, KG!

I *love* that mix!!!!!

[kerrygoddess]

14. Me too!

Made me cry! ***again*** Can't listen to it with out getting all teary eyed.

[Luftmensch067]

15. I know what you mean

But it also fires me up and makes me want to make it all come true ANYWAY. :-)

[kerrygoddess]

16. If only we could. n/t

[YvonneCa]

20. We CAN...

...make it all come true, KG. We can. Thank you for this...I've sent the link far and wide. :) This ought to be used for our 2008 Democratic nominee THIS year...it's very motivational.

[beachmom]

17. Thanks for posting, KG. The hope hasn't died, you know.

It's still with us, and we're going to make what Kerry dreamed of happen. And he'll be right along with us.

[karynnj]

18. Thank you - I love that song with the words of Kerry and others

I'm tempted to link to it the next time someone says that the most eloquent man in American politics of his generation is a "poor speaker".

[dwahzon]

19. KG

Do you know who mixed that mp3? Who or what the original source is?

It was really great to hear. Made me sad but proud.

[MBS]

21. oh, this is WONDERFUL

thanks so much. I'm going to spread this around.