Crossposted at GDP. Please K & R the truth about Obama's low electability there.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5158026Overall
McCain 47, Hill 43
McCain 50, Obama 39
The crosstabs are scary--especially with Obama, who looks increasingly like he will fracture the party if nominating (so much for being able to unite...).
Obama's problems
While Clinton wins the Democratic vote 74-10, Obama wins it only 60-25. That is a net difference of a whopping 29 points. This is consistent with other national polling that shows the evidently "polarizing" Obama fracturing the party. Obama gets a mere 31% of the white vote. He loses Latinos by 11 while Clinton ties. Obama gets only 35% of "other", presumably primarily Asian voters. On age Obama only ties among voters 18-29 and gets a scant 33% of senior citizens. The latter are a key group everywhere since they turnout at high rates but they are especially important in Florida.
For all the media/Obama machine hype about "Obamacons" this is yet another poll that shows Obama getting basically as much rethug support as Clinton. He wins 13% of the rethug vote, Clinton wins 10%. The 3% is within the margin of error and is definitely not worth coughing up 29 points among Democrats. He does do 10% better among indies, but even there he gets only 36% and that 10 point advantage should decline--and is declining--as he gets vetted.
Clinton's problem
In Florida Obama's swiftboating of the Clintons on race has done great damage. She wins blacks only 51-13 while Obama does 81-9. We will have to see if this is a trend. In the Pew nationall poll she still wins 93% of black Dems and 86% of blacks overall against McCain.
Issues
Clinton beats McCain by 4 on the war while Obama loses by 10. What explains this 14 point difference when they have the same Iraq position, the fairy tale notwithstanding? One word: experience. Many folks, even some who like him, simply do not believe Obama is ready to be president. Clinton trounces McCain by 14 on the economy while Obama beats him by only 3 on that measure. This advantage is likely due primarily to Clinton's association with the prosperous 8 years under Bill Clinton. Obama has no economic record or association. McCain wins big on taxes and "moral values". No surprise there. I was surprised to see Obama, who is running arguably the most religious Democratic presidential campaign since Jimmy Carter, does only four points better than Clinton on this issue. McCain wins big on immigration and that is surprising since his immigration views are very similar to both Clinton and Obama's. This is probably a reflection of party id and the rethug association with being "tough" on immigration, not because of McCain. On health care both Democratic candidates win by more than 2:1. Both candidates win on education but Obama wins by substantially more (59-33 versus 45-33). This on the face of it seems odd. What record does Obama have on education? He has none, unlike Clinton. However he has education policies that if proposed by any Democrat other than St. Obama would be termed "DINO" or "rethug lite". Since his "pay for performance" and being "open" to privatizing education were popular views in Florida when progressive icon Jeb Bush stood for them it is no surprise Obama benefits on the issue in this state.
The issues look good for us with Clinton. She wins on Iraq, wins comfortably on the economy, and beats McCain 50-21 on health care. These are likely to be the three biggest issues (probably with the economy #1, Iraq #2, and health care #3) of the election. She also wins on education, although that will be a minor issue again. Where she loses we expect to lose. Obama is problematic. He is essentially tied with McCain on the economy and loses by double digits on Iraq. It is obviously very difficult to win if you are Democrat unless you can win on both issues. He should be able to improve on the economy if nominated but he can't take How to be President 101 over the summer...
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Florida_Rele... 
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