Electoral-vote.com prediction:

[johnaries]

based on independent polls -
Senate: 51 Democrats, 49 Republicans.
Projected New House: 239 Democrats, 196 Republicans.
http://electoral-vote.com/

:woohoo:

[lancdem]

1. I like it!

[Bluebear]

2. That's what I'm talkin' about!

[skooooo]

3. Mort Zucker said today..

...that whenever the House switches, the Senate always switches too.

We'll see!

[lancdem]

5. Didn't know that

Interesting!

[Hippo_Tron]

15. The last time that didn't happen was 1930

Democrats took the House but not the Senate. Of course they won the Senate in a landslide in 1932.

[Generic Brad]

4. 51 in the Senate? Are they predicting a Lieberman defeat?

That would be sweet.

[KingFlorez]

8. They count him as a Democrat

[lancdem]

9. No, he's counted as a Dem

[never_get_over_it]

6. Well for the Senate that assumes

LIEberman caucuses with the Dems - I'm not so sure.....

but if it turns out this way it is FAR better than we even hoped for at the beginning of the year - back in those old days the political "wisdom" claimed we didn't have a chance in the Senate.

[Clarkie1]

19. Relax. There is 0% chance Lieberman would caucus with Republicans. nt

[tavalon]

26. Politicians dance with those that brung them

That is a bastardization of something Molly Ivins has said. And them that brung Lieberman are the Republicans. Why wouldn't he caucus with them that brung him?

[Clarkie1]

31. Actually, Democrats and Republicans are supporting him.

He has formed a bi-partisan coalition, but he will not leave the Democratic Party.

[tavalon]

40. Calling what Joe Lieberman has done bipartisan

is a little disingenuous I think.

[never_get_over_it]

28. Keep dreaming.....

any man who would run as an independent after running in the Democratic primary and losing would do anything and you are SO completely wrong that there is 0% chance. I don't know what the chance is but it IS NOT 0%. If the Senate is 51 49 Dems or 50 50 LIEberman will be courted like crazy from both parties and you have NO WAY of knowing which way it will go - and given his despicable behavior it is not the least bit inconceivable that he will caucus with the repunks.

[Clarkie1]

30. Lieberman has been a Dem all his life, and he isn't going to desert his

Democratic collegues. It will never happen.

[never_get_over_it]

34. Yes he is so concerned about his democratic

colleagues that he lost a democratic primary and ran as an independent anyway. The man is a despicable sore loser who is beyond pathetic and deserves the vote or the respect of NO ONE!

[Clarkie1]

38. Well, I don't believe he derserves my vote.

And I would not vote for him given the choice of Lamont. However, most Connecticut voters are not members of the Democratic Party, and he appears to have the support of the majority of the people there. That's the way Democracy works when we don't like the results (same way as it works when we like the results).

[bobbolink]

33. There's always the DINOs who vote with the RW

To really make a difference with the Senate, we'd have to have a much bigger margin.

Or maybe it's margarine.

:hi:

[never_get_over_it]

35. Its not his votes I'm worried about

its if he chooses to caucus with the repunks and give them the majority and all the committe chairs - that is why the control of the Senate is so important - who controls the place. The only sure way for CT to know that their Senator will be part of the Dem majority is to vote for Lamont. I don't trust LIEberman at all period - he doesn't deserve any Democrat's trust after he ran in a Dem primary lost and then chose to run as an independent showing COMPLETE disrespect for the democratic process and the democratic voters - the man SUCKS....

[bobbolink]

41. I wasn't just referring to Lieberman--didn't mention his name.

There are a few other DINOs, unfortunately.

[never_get_over_it]

44. I hear that....

I live in Florida, Bill Nelson - LIEberman of the South without the kiss - every single issue I have contacted him about he has voted the other way....gives me a HUGE headache....

[bobbolink]

45. Ok, you win... I'm in CO, and furious with Salazar, but...

he might not be quite the weasel that Nelson is.

On the other hand...

:mad:

See, that's at least two we can count on, besides Liberman, to sell us down the river.

No worries. :nuke:

[rurallib]

7. Is one of the senators Lieberman and how do they brand him?

If he wins Joe could suddenly become a very powerful guy. He could be the 50the Dem or Repuke. What a revoltin' development.

[WillyT]

16. Yeah... Looks Like They Are Calling Him A Dem...

:puke:

[mucifer]

10. I think this website predicted Kerry would have a strong win in the last

election didn't it?

Anyway GOTV polls dont mean much.

[Quixote1818]

11. No, they had it a nail biter with Kerry slightly ahead in Ohio

and New Mexico which was probably correct before they machines reversed a number of Kerry's votes. This projection is based on the latest polls so it's probably pretty close.

[SouthernBelle82]

12. That sounds about right

Following the polls that seems about right. Only way this will happen is if everyone who hasn't voted yet polled goes out and does so.

[BrotherBuzz]

13. I like the Senate numbers but the house numbers look like a pipe dream

I like it, but it seems a little over the edge. A 58 seat gain? I think thirty to forty seat gain might be a more realistic number.

[Spider Jerusalem]

17. That's 37 seats, not 58.

Current House: 232 R, 202 D, 1 I (according to the House Clerk's Ofice)

[BrotherBuzz]

27. Oh, silly me

Our gain of one seat is their loss of one seat, but a difference of two. Damn that fuzzy math :crazy:

37 is a great number, and doable!

[texpatriot2004]

14. So far so good nm

[Clarkie1]

18. They are saying what I've been saying since Thursday: Virginia and Missouri.

"The two races that will determine control of the Senate are Virginia and Missouri. The Democrats need to win both to control the Senate. Both are virtually tied."

I feel good for our chances in both these states.

[in_cog_ni_to]

20. NOW THAT'S MORE LIKE IT!!!!!!

:woohoo::woohoo:

[Quixote1818]

21. Kick

[DesertRat]

22. Before we get too excited

This is what they were predicting on that website the day before the 2004 election:
Kerry 298 Bush 231

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/nov/nov01.html

[gordontron]

23. it's hard to look at that prediction without my gut twisting nt

[w4rma]

24. They only missed Ohio and Florida, where we know there is huge election fraud in place. (nt)

[Yupster]

36. They missed Iowa the most

they had that one blue.

[grace0418]

25. What's Diebold's prediction?

Sorry, I'm just not feeling so confident about a fair election.

[texpatriot2004]

29. kick nm

[Roland99]

32. Only one thing can make that prediction turn into reality......

GOTV!!

[Harper_is_Bush]

37. Your link don't work:

http://www.electoral-vote.com:2006/

[AntiWarPoster]

39. I agree with it, Sabato basically agrees as well

nm

[WilliamPitt]

42. How reliable is this site?

[johnaries]

43. Well, it pretty closely matched the Exit Polls in 2004.

Take that as you will.

It also has some excellent explanations of how polling processes work. The webmaster is an American Programmer living in Europe. he's also a Dem.