Found this buried in a thread....re: "Surge" Casualty Estimates

[Bobbie Jo]

Re: Pentagon casualty estimates resulting from the "Surge."

Thanks to the OP for the link. (Edited to include text)

http://seesdifferent.wordpress.com/2007/01/13/pentagon-doubling-of-us-casualties-estimated-with-surge/

(snip)

If Condi Rice lied to Congress about this, she has got to go. Impeached. Gone. Monday. if not yesterday.

And if she didn’t know about it, and if it’s true, she should be fired for making up the stuff she said.

Pentagon planners this week warned President George W. Bush that his “troop surge” plan could double U.S. casualties in Iraq in the coming year and result in 10,000 or more American deaths by the end of 2008. (with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life.) In a classified assessment memo, military experts predicted violence against U.S. troops will increase “at a sustained pace” and concluded that increasing the use of soldiers for house to house searches in Baghdad will “dramatically alter” the “ratio of casualties to actions” in that civil-war torn city, says a military source familiar with the memo.

In an appearance before the Senate Armed Services committee Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refused to provide an estimate of U.S. casualties, saying such estimates are not possible but the Pentagon assessment had been delivered to the White House on Tuesday, two days before her testimony.

Military planners, as a matter of course, prepare casualty estimates as part of any action.

Senators from both sides of the aisle told Rice they did not believe her testimony, saying too many Bush administration officials have lied to Congress too many times.

Sounds like somebody in the military is blowing the whistle on the lying; and well they should. Our kids are gonna die. I hope that Webb or someone will get some better answers on this.

[magellan]

1. God damn this lying bitch to hell!

"Pentagon planners this week warned President George W. Bush that his “troop surge” plan could double U.S. casualties in Iraq in the coming year and result in 10,000 or more American deaths by the end of 2008. (with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life.)

snip

"In an appearance before the Senate Armed Services committee Thursday, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice refused to provide an estimate of U.S. casualties, saying such estimates are not possible but the Pentagon assessment had been delivered to the White House on Tuesday, two days before her testimony."

[indepat]

67. Surely there is not a Condisleasyliar speaking for the administration

[truth2power]

79. What you said, Magellan...

Yes. God Damn her! :mad: :mad:


edit> can't spell Magellan..

[helderheid]

2. I know where you found this and I am hoping you get 100 recommends

[NanceGreggs]

7. What you said, helderheid

Let's get this up there ASAP.

:kick:

[WiseButAngrySara]

20. I'll keep kicking as long as I'm up. ....n/t

[NanceGreggs]

23. Good idea!!!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[doublethink]

8. At least 100 recs.... damn .....

:kick:

[madokie]

51. I added number 86 to this

I was watching her lie and knew she was lying her ass off when she was. she first has to go, she's an evil, evil warmonger

[helderheid]

56. wow - just 9 more to make it 100! Very good, DU

[Solly Mack]

3. :(

Surge - a video that reflects just that


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98dCZ0GeCbI

[Rainscents]

4. Lets send this to everyone!!!

Condi lied to congress the other day!!! She should be IMPEACHED NOW!!!

[Robbien]

5. Some info from link

Pentagon planners this week warned President George W. Bush that his “troop surge” plan could double U.S. casualties in Iraq in the coming year and result in 10,000 or more American deaths by the end of 2008. (with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life.) In a classified assessment memo, military experts predicted violence against U.S. troops will increase “at a sustained pace” and concluded that increasing the use of soldiers for house to house searches in Baghdad will “dramatically alter” the “ratio of casualties to actions” in that civil-war torn city, says a military source familiar with the memo.

Yikes

[uppityperson]

6. here is a bit from the link

Pentagon planners this week warned President George W. Bush that his “troop surge” plan could double U.S. casualties in Iraq in the coming year and result in 10,000 or more American deaths by the end of 2008. (with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life.)

[illinoisprogressive]

9. Gee, and I thought Condi said they didnt know!

[DoYouEverWonder]

52. She could only know

if someone would tell her the exact time and place that the IED's would be planted and which troops were going to be patrolling that area, at that specific time.

[uppityperson]

10. kick

[krispos42]

11. Son of a bitch!

Double in two years? That's five a day turned into chunky salsa and fifty a day in a wheelchair or with a prosthetic or a feeding tube and a diaper!

Six thousand dead is not too much of a price to pay when a nation's survival is on the line.

One dead is too much to pay so some dry drunk can play "Risk: Ultimate Edition"

K&R, and ITMFA!

[Felinity]

53. What you said.

And a big K&R. I believe I'm #88.

[volstork]

12. K&R

:kick:

[Dhalgren]

13. K&R!

Shit...just, shit...

[uppityperson]

14. k

[WiseButAngrySara]

15. She makes me sick! This is evil. ....n/t

[WiseButAngrySara]

16. KNR. more rec's than kicks. ....n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

17. The administration lie

really? When did it start?

:sarcasm:

[Kaotac]

18. Don't know how they can sleep at night.

Here's to hoping that the people who can do something about this, get told about it.
Has anyone actually emailed Webb, or their congress person about this?

[NYC]

24. Welcome to DU.

:hi:

[liberal renegade]

48. Ambien

that's how they sleep at night.

[liberal renegade]

49. oops

don't know how that happened

[williesgirl]

19. K&R

[WiseButAngrySara]

21. ....

:kick:

[WiseButAngrySara]

22. ....

:kick:

[TheWraith]

25. Those numbers sound highly dubious to me.

I can't imagine any scenario which would put US deaths at 10k in two years. I suspect that either these numbers are made up, or else someone is making the classic mistake of confusing casualties (which is both dead and wounded) with fatalities. 10,000 casualties over two years would be conceivable.

[fooj]

27. It's about the treason. It's about the lies.

I, for one, can imagine PLENTY scenarios with these war criminals in charge.

[Jackpine Radical]

45. We've had a lot more that 10 k casualties in the last 2 years. (nt)

[TheWraith]

76. Upon checking the updated OP, these figures are bullshit.

They're saying it's 10,000 dead and 100,000 wounded, which is simple impossible unless we start bombing our own troops. Between that, and Capitol Hill Blue being the source, I call bullshit.

[Morgana LaFey]

84. Remember -- this is a different mission, different tactics

Our troops are going to go in, clear an area, and STAY. They're going to be staying with Iraqi troops (or so they said), and even that entails danger. I'm not a military planner, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see more casualties -- wounded AND dead -- in such a scenario than we've had to date. It's common sense, frankly.

[trashcanistanista]

88. I watched her lie in the hearing last week

and yes, common sense says this will be a massacre. Iraqi soldiers are already killing the American soldiers they are training. Increase the close contact (barging into someone's home) and you increase the casualties. She needs to go and Congress needs to stop this now.

[mrdmk]

90. That look suspicions to me also, and this is coming from Capital Hill Blue!

On the other hand there are over 3,000 dead and over 35,000 wounded at this time (on the wounded count, if a truck is hit by a RPG and the driver is killed, that is a killed in action. Another truck comes along and rear-ends the wreckage from the RPG attack and your head goes through the windshield, that is not wounded or killed in action, that is accident. Another thing, if you are wounded in action and die in Germany, that is not a killed in action). The way the article is written it gives you the sum of 3,000 plus 6,000 or 7,000 dead in the coming year, same with the wounded. That is where those numbers are coming from, they are the totals. B.S. gloomy article from Capital Hill Blue.

Although, that does not mean Ms. Rice is not lying about these statistics. Every battle plan has a killed in action approximation in it.

[tavalon]

26. Oh, fuck

Recommended but not happily.

[lildreamer316]

28. K&R. Thanks for finding this and posting.

NOW we are gonna be IN it.
Praying.......

[Straight Shooter]

29. Capitol Hill Blue seems to be the source for initial publication of this story.

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/news2/2007/01/pentagon_memo_p.html

Those who suspect the journalistic integrity of CHB can take this article with a grain of salt. There are defenders and detractors of CHB on DU.

I remain skeptical of CHB, but I can see where U.S. casualties would escalate. Verification from other independent sources would be welcome.

[AndrewJacksonFaction]

73. My exact thoughts. But, boy that would be grand.

BradBlog has something relating to this, this is chocked full of weasel words.

"When asked directly by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), "Do you have an estimate of the number of casualties we expect from this surge?", Rice's answer came back as: "No, uh, Senator...I don't think there's any way to give you such an estimate."

[northofdenali]

30. Adding my rec - serious find, bobbiejo

I knew the asshole was lying when she was testifying. I believe it is a crime to lie to Congress, isn't it? Let's get Condi off the map, completely. Goddamn fuckhead.

[TacticalPeek]

31. Capitol Hill Blue seems to be the origin.

But there is no link to an actual source, even though it is styled like a block quote.

Thin gruel.

[pacalo]

32. "If we can hide it, it didn't happen" -- the Bush administration's motto.

[Tuesday_Morning]

33. K & R

[tiptoe]

34. K&R

[roody]

35. k

[malaise]

36. But, but, but

Barbara Boxer's accurate observation is getting more headlines than Condi's lies.

Please send this to KO.

[2008]

37. k & r (nt)

[orleans]

38. i kept thinking how can we plan any part of a war

and not plan for causalities

that is unheard of

when she said she didn't know i thought for sure she was full of shit. and never one to disappoint==she is totally full of shit.

[LizW]

87. Yes, there are estimates.

There are always estimates. The object of war is to kill the other guy until he realizes he can't stand any more and gives up. If he doesn't give up, it becomes a fight to the death and you kill until you've killed all of him.

The key to winning is having more men or more deadly weapons, or both.

The Pentagon makes casualty estimates for every possible conflict scenario. It is basic to the strategy of war. You don't want to be the one who runs out of men first, because then you lose. You've got to figure out how many people are going to fall in battle, so you have more ready to replace them.

Sometimes these casualty estimates are horrifying. The military never wants the general public to know these estimates because they are clear evidence of how much of our blood our government is willing to spill to reach its goal. The estimates clearly show the cost of war, in advance, and they show that our government considers it worth it.

It is imperative to keep these numbers from the public (and usually from Congress). It is entirely possible that they didn't tell Rice the numbers, because they wanted her to have plausible deniability. But the numbers exist.

When Rice said she couldn't tell Congress the numbers, Congress should have immediately called Gates to testify. If he says he doesn't know, then they should immediately announce a funding freeze for all costs of this "war". If Gates doesn't have these numbers, then our military is in the hands of fools and we are in a national emergency.

[BR_Parkway]

39. Morning K&R - maybe the talking heads will pick it up

[watrwefitinfor]

40. Another K & R. n/t

[freefall]

41. Another morning K&R.

:kick: :kick:

[bonito]

42. And another K&R

:kick:

[Klukie]

43. Kick

Thanks

[PuraVidaDreamin]

44. 79th rec

It's up the the 110th Congress to
save whats left of America

[AwakeAtLast]

46. Send this to Keith Olbermann

:kick: and Rec!

:grr: for Rice and :about time smilie: for the military!

[annabanana]

47. Capitol Hill Blue claims AP info.. but doesn't link. . damn

Damn. . .I wish it was someone else..

[spanone]

50. kick

[Bluerthanblue]

54. their blue dress- K&R!!- thanks for this find!! eom

[pberq]

55. Kick & Nominated

[many a good man]

57. Un-kicked and Un-recommended

C'mon folks, this is Capitol Hill Blue. They make stuff up just to attract attention. If you go around repeating their stuff you just lose credibility.

[helderheid]

78. check post 65

[PATRICK]

58. Bush lied about the tactical deployment

More likely they will be scattered to the permanent bases and green Zone for defensive posture. The grandly announced tactics can be changed and are likely almost impossible even to implement. Some safe temporary show might be made, even the initial stages before it simply falls apart. This will lessen casualties and silence critics a bit, maybe.

The madness. they could and it would happen disastrously. Strange echos. David Corn and Richard Perle met before the Iraq incursion and Perle boasted 50,000 shock troops quick dropped into Baghdad could do the trick. Another idiot has shown the same bravado leak about sending troops from our bases into Iran and seizing things already planned for by KBR(in pre-Chalabi exposure days). I suppose the Extended Alamo could come about.

What the 'easy" full dream of Bush would have meant and could if some fool implemented it. Thousands more dead in Iraq. A stretched out and critically stressed small attack force mired in Iran trying to protect supply lines, ruining the air force in constant bombing and supplies drops that are only defensive, swallowing radioactive dust when the air turns back from shock and awe gone awry. The Extended Alamo, and Bush is no Sam Houston that can even arrive too late.

Would Israel blanche at the task of rescue, its hand rendered a thousand times more perilous for being tied down by American needs and regional holocaust?

In the original incursion, if anyone paid attention it was NOT a cakewalk but a sprint, a race against time and inadequate supplies, exhaustion. All these things are now multiplied by years of intensified failures and depletions. You cannot move out into neighborhood much less Iran and achieve anything but imperiling our forces and killing a lot of people for nothing. You can attack but you cannot win, and the possibility for massive defeat increases in proportion to the stubborn fantasies of chickenhawk pols and men of irrational greed.

[Virginia Dare]

59. Of course she lied...

they're all liars and traitors to the country. I'm thinking Webb and others will be all over this, I'm hoping anyway. Webb is going to stay in her ass, I have a feeling.

[The Count]

60. "No one could have predicted that" - I predict we'll hear that soon

"The Pentagon report was a purely historical document"

[Taxloss]

61. Pleased to be rec #100! n/t

[sellitman]

62. 101 here....n/t

[B Calm]

63. Bush thinks this is a small price to pay to protect the oil!

[WiseButAngrySara]

64. Disgusting, is it not? SURGE B* out of office! ....n/t

[AnotherDreamWeaver]

65. Not just Cap. Hill Blue reports

See: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/10/AR2007011002581.html
for:
"There will be more violence than usual because of the surge, and a surge with more casualties plays up on the international stage," said a senior Army official. Sadr "is going to have to make a choice, and if he decides on a confrontation, it will be pretty significant," added a senior Pentagon official.

Sadr is one of the most powerful figures in the Iraqi government, and he has forced it and the U.S. military to back down in the past. Yet if the Mahdi Army is not confronted, the entire offensive may falter and the sectarian conflict may intensify, because Sunnis will feel it is just one more way of attacking them while letting Shiite death squads go free, military experts said. "If our troops do not enter Sadr City, they belittle the notion of a surge because they would leave a leading militia unscathed," said Patrick Cronin of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a defense think tank.
<snip>
Bush said it is now clear that there have not been sufficient troops in Baghdad, and that part of the difference in this approach is that the plan will be adequately resourced. Yet the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq after the planned increase will be about 153,000, less than the peak of about 165,000 in December 2005. Military experts last night wondered, as one said, how a "thin green line" of 17,500 additional soldiers in Baghdad could affect the security situation in a city where many of the 5 million residents are hostile to the U.S. presence. "Too little, too late -- way too late," said retired Col. Jerry Durrant, who has worked as a trainer of Iraqi forces.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff have resisted Bush's push for more troops, according to officials familiar with internal deliberations, but recently gave in to the president's wishes. Bush said last night that top commanders reviewed the new plans to add a total of 21,500 Army and Marine forces in Baghdad and Anbar province and approved of them.

"The 'surge' is actually quite small," said retired Army Col. Andrew Bacevich, who compared it with the 206,000 additional troops that Gen. William Westmoreland requested in Vietnam in 1968. "In effect, Bush is counting on the Iraqis to pull our bacon out of the fire," Bacevich said, adding that there is no evidence that the Iraqi military and government are capable of doing so.
<snip>

The 'surge' needs to be with the American population getting the unelected out of office.
adw

[helderheid]

69. thank you for this - I really appreciate it

[Tuesday_Morning]

80. Here's one way that

the percentage of US troop casualties will certainly increase under Dubya's plan:

from his speech:

Let me explain the main elements of this effort: The Iraqi government will appoint a military commander and two deputy commanders for their capital. The Iraqi government will deploy Iraqi Army and National Police brigades across Baghdad's nine districts. When these forces are fully deployed, there will be 18 Iraqi Army and National Police brigades committed to this effort - along with local police. These Iraqi forces will operate from local police stations - conducting patrols, setting up checkpoints, and going door-to-door to gain the trust of Baghdad residents. This is a strong commitment. But for it to succeed, our commanders say the Iraqis will need our help. So America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence - and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I have committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.The vast majority of them - five brigades - will be deployed to Baghdad. These troops will work alongside Iraqi units and be embedded in their formations. Our troops will have a well-defined mission: to help Iraqis clear and secure neighborhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security that Baghdad needs. Many listening tonight will ask why this effort will succeed when previous operations to secure Baghdad did not. Here are the differences: In earlier operations, Iraqi and American forces cleared many neighborhoods of terrorists and insurgents - but when our forces moved on to other targets, the killers returned. This time, we will have the force levels we need to hold the areas that have been cleared. In earlier operations, political and sectarian interference prevented Iraqi and American forces from going into neighborhoods that are home to those fueling the sectarian violence. This time, Iraqi and American forces will have a green light to enter these neighborhoods - and Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.

[lyonn]

92. Or maybe this aspect:

From WP-

"The plan to partner U.S. and Iraqi units may compel American soldiers to rely on questionable Iraqi army and police forces as never before."

-snip-

.......may mean that the U.S. military will wind up fighting the Mahdi Army of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. That militia is estimated by some U.S. intelligence officials to have grown over the past year to about 60,000 fighters, and some in the Pentagon consider it more militarily effective than the Iraqi army."

We will have our troops intermingling with the Iraqi military which is basically Shiite in a Shiite area of millions. Al Sadr must be thrilled about the prospects...

[annabanana]

82. Thank you for the WaPo link!!

[many a good man]

86. WaPo doesn't back up CHB

No where does the WaPo article mention the Pentagon warning of "10,000 or more American deaths by the end of 2008. (with more than 100,000 wounded and/or maimed for life.)" or imply that Condi knew of such.

The WaPo article just states the obvious: more troops, harsher fighting conditions, more casualties. CHB is making stuff up again.

[Recursion]

66. How many troops had we lost 4 years into Vietnam?

I don't think it was much higher than 3000. This is how this stuff starts.

[Joanne98]

68. Get her ass back to the Senate and put her under OATH this time.

[HappyWeasel]

70. whaaaa....?

They just don't get it, do they? They LOST the election yet are stil trying to our country (and THEIR colonies) with an iron fist. Their governance has gone from just bad and seditious to quite simply evil, cruel, sick and wrong.....a true abomination. What do you think would have happened if Clinton tried to do healthcare reform through executive order when the reason why he lost the election was that he lost the healthcare argument in the eyes of the majority of americans?...and even then, he was impeached. We hold roughly the same majoriteis in congress(with the help of DINOs, because of the gerrymander, but this will change) that the GOP did in the late 90s. We do have the power to impeach Bush, and even though we will not be able to have him removed, we will convince the American people that if they are fooled into electing another soulless ideologue again, IT will be systematically destroyed by our congress (which will gain in the senate and will keep the house by at least 10 seats (mostly RINOS beating DINOS) unless something goes horribly wrong).

...and imagine what would happen if the surge did go through and our loses DID look like 15,000 dead and 150,000 wounded by election day? This war WOULD truely be like Vietfuckinnam then....and given this, and for the sake of the world, WE MUST WIN, especially if we are against McCain who supports escalation....because if they get away with this, and are emboldenned...we WILL be sending soldiers (if not firing ICBMs) at Iran by the Easter of 2009, and THERE WILL be the "The Morning After" by the middle of 2009. Just because we won the election doesn't mean our fight for civilization's survival has ended. I thought so as well when we did...it appears that the war against armaggedon has only begun. Remember, November 7th, 2006 was not the beggining of the end, or even the beginning of the middle, but was simple the end of the beggining.

[truedelphi]

77. Heck, you saved me a whole lotta typing

I agreed with everything you posted -except I think their timetable for Iran is NOW,
not 2009

[HappyWeasel]

85. Well...

They wanted to last year, but...their spell ran outta juice. I think the 2007-2011 period is their chance to regroup, if they can't win a third term to the presidency AND at least of their houses back by then, I think we will be in the clear, otherwise their plans will come and go....and it will look a little bit like:

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488&hl=en-GB

[The Wielding Truth]

71. More proof they are ignoring the facts,purposely. Why???????

They are lying to us and we employ them! Fire them!!!!

[emald]

72. serial lying. multiple murderer. when will this end? ever?

kindasleazy seems hell bent to kick the "terra" war into high gear, along with the whole cabal. Are there really no morally responsible people who can step in and call these lies? Do we really have to watch this once great country suck down the drain? What a nightmare.

[mzmolly]

74. Do you suppose the question in this regard was calculated?

I hope so after reading this. :(

[LuckyX]

75. Email everyone you can

I sent this to 5 congress members and 6 news outlets. If they know we know, they have to respond! Don't wait do it today.

[truth2power]

81. Who's that guy who says they're all alien reptiles?..

I'm gonna have to rethink that. Yessiree! :evilgrin:

[caligirl]

83. :) bookmarked for calling senators this week.

[Jeffersons Ghost]

89. K&R, as if the OP needs another reccomendation... here's a pertinent graphic...

[Jcrowley]

91. K&R n/t